Search This Blog

Friday, August 26, 2016

Indian Sesame Seed Monsoon/New Crop August 26th 2016


Hello Everyone, 

Its been a long time since I got that urge of sharing my views on Sesame Seed and with the Indian Crop just around the corner couldn't resist.

First looking back at the 2015-16 crop , must say its been quite a dull and boring year for the speculators but a fruitful one for those who like to do clean and simple business. Yes there were a few spikes in prices, one just at the beginning then a few more but the rally could not really sustain itself for long. We saw the lows of USD 1100-1150 FOB for the Hulled and  3 digit numbers for the Natural but that was momentarily. The markets remained range bound more or less most part the year in the range of $1400-$1500 FOB levels for the Hulled despite a smaller Summer crop.Ocean freights touched all time lows which helped as well.

Some Export Import Numbers :-

Year                                        Export
2010-11                                 - 398,441 MT  
2011-12                                 - 389,154 MT  
2012-13                                 - 299,482 MT
2013-14                                 - 257,443 MT
2014-15                                 - 375,656 MT
2015-16                                 - 328,429 MT
2016-17 ( April/May )            -   69,094 MT

Looking at the numbers despite low prices and a huge supply the Export Numbers actually dipped from India. Strange right? Actually no, if you look at the numbers of April/May the volumes have picked up again , almost at an average of 35,000 MT/Month. I have a feeling a similar number would be for June and July as well. Last years export numbers are less because it was exactly opposite during that period ,April-September 2015 export numbers were less and exports picked up dramatically only after the new crop arrived which balanced the figures.

What this also tells us that unlike last year the buyer's may be sitting on a substantially good volume of cargo in their warehouse at very attractive prices and patiently waiting to book profit as and when possible. The prices at consuming destinations is relatively stable due to this. 

Year                                        Import
2010-11                                 -  8,727   MT
2011-12                                 -     609   MT
2012-13                                 - 38,050 MT
2013-14                                 - 72,928  MT
2014-15                                 - 34,767  MT
2015-16                                 - 23,597  MT
2016-17                                 -   5,144   MT

The export numbers also concur with the above situation , the Imports were relatively less and picked up after African destination started offering huge discount parity advantage. Another fact is that some import coming into India is on special request for reexport to special client needs and does not follow the price pattern.

1:- China crop is being harvested now and from what we've heard its smaller than last year.They had lots of rains and a lost quite a big volume to the rains and the sowing was less as compared to previous years in line with the trend of last few years. Logically speaking that should spur the market there or atleast create a ripple but  nothing moved. China is in a different league all together now , they are importing close to 1 million MT of sesame seeds from various global suppliers now and for them the local crop really doesn't matter much as long there is another destination which can cover that void. The trade to china has become so accessible and with so many big players the local crop has taken an absolute back seat in their scheme of things.The port stocks in China are rumored to be at an all time high , some estimate it to be close to 200,000 MT which is like a 3 month consumption buffer stock. Over this their new crop and the incoming imports have really slowed down the trade in China.

2:- Africa , sowing currently on in various countries and Nigerian crop is ready for harvest. It it rumored to be a good crop, last year around the same time we heard of rumours of some damage to the African crops but nothing much really happened and they had a good harvest. I believe many African countries are keeping a close watch on the situation in China and India and with both rumored to have bad crops the area under sesame cultivation can increase. Past experience shows us how quickly the African nations can add areas to a particular crop , there has been almost a 200-250% growth in sesame volumes in the past decade , thats almost an average growth rate of 20% annually with potential to add more if needed thanks to all the surplus uncultivated virgin landmass they have.

Sesame also serves as a cash crop for the Africans with huge volumes moving quickly , which means more $'s to the nations where the trade is not anymore about commodity but more about who has the $'s in hand for Imports. 

As on date apart from flooding in some parts of Sudan no bad news from any African sowing area. Sudan non the less is sitting on huge stocks from last season and would be happy to sell it out at discounted prices due to steep currency fluctuation there and with new crop just months away it makes perfect sense as well.

3:- India , just like last year the Met department warned well in advance of a good monsoon this year , Sesame of course is not a water friendly crop so we saw a lot of crop shift during sowing at the start of the season. We had estimated that last year atleast 10-15% extra area was covered under sesame plantation apart from the official government sowing area numbers , that swing number is definitely out of calculations this year. Apart from that officially the sowing is less by about 15% as per government data. So at first calculations we can discount that this year's crop will be less by atleast 30% compared to last year. Now coming to the damage caused by heavy rains in the remaining crop. The trade estimates coming from various people involved put the numbers between 30-40%. 

However frankly speaking I am yet to witness a photographic proof of this. Yes , the rains have been heavy and knowing the sesame plants we can surely say the low lying field or whereever there was water logging the damage may have been severe but to put a percentage number on damage as a total would be too hard. Some fields may have been totally wiped off but some fields which survived will probably compensate for the volume losses by increased yields. My number for average loss would not be more than 20% as a whole. Still that gets us down by 50% compared to last year( 15% Swing Sowing area + 15% Less average sowing + 20% Damage due to Rains) . Thats a huge number and perfect recipe for the bulls. The new crop is highly unlikely to be available for export before Mid of October.

Current Situation and Future Predictions :-

1:- First the stock situation. Last year we had a great crop, infact it was more than we could handle at one point of time and so we saw the price go down to a 5 year low. It did rebound quickly enough though as those levels looked fairly attractive for everyone to step in a buy/stock a little as per need. However the huge crop made sure that markets remained range bound most part of the year. Everytime our beloved Korean Tender tried to take the market up the warehouse doors would open and suddenly everyone wanted to sell their stocks. The situation i think remains the same at the moment as well , If last years crop numbers were correct India still had a good 60,000-70,000 Mt of stock from last year.

Although this stock is primarily of a higher range but with new crop round the corner profit booking is bound to happen at every jump.Never before has India carried such a huge carry over into the next season. Some estimates put the carry over close to 100,000 MT which I think might be possible as well as its impossible to judge the holding capacity at farm levels and the exact crop size.

How much exactly is the crop in India actually no one really knows , its just a guess work based on average yields from some farms and area under cultivation as per government data.However I believe it must be accurate to 10% deviation. 

Last 4 years official data numbers are as follows

2012-13                    340,000 MT
2013-14                    350,000 MT
2014-15                    470,000 MT
2015-16                    540,000 MT

And there are only the Kharif (winter) crop numbers , the Rabi( summer) crop is over and above this.

So a comparison between last years crop and this years estimate give us a crop of about 280,000 MT (50% of last year) + 60,000 MT of carry over . Total about 340,000 Mt which is back to our 2012 number. Now if you just scroll up you will see this is exactly the number which inspired India to import in a big way. That trend is most likely to be repeated. We will surely import a huge quantity from Africa this year.

All said and done the question now is why isn't the market reacting the way it really should having seen the facts above. In the past we've seen Indian prices jump $100 on a day to day basis for no reason at all but this time it hasn't been able to do so. Practically everyone is bullish in India at the moment , be it the farmer , stockiest , trader or the exporter but still nothing much has happened. Yes the prices are moving up slowly but not at the pace they should have. 

We believe for a bullish market the bulls really need to get all their fundamental's right
1:- Low Carry over's
2:- Less new crop
3:- A steady and healthy export demand
4:- A steady and healthy domestic demand
5:- Good access to a lot of funds to hold onto stocks for longer period
6:- Low global availability of the cargo

While for the bearish market the Bears only need to get one of the above 5 right and the market either falls or stays put.

We think that there is still some confusion over Point 1,3 and Point 6 which is holding back the bull run. Once the carry over stocks reach a slightly low volume and combined with some overseas demand we can definitely witness an upward rally , however even then there is 
Point 6 which could play spoil sport from time to time. 

Conclusion :- 

The numbers definitely point towards a bullish year ahead , however for all the fundamentals to play out right at the same time is a big ask so for sure there will be checks and balances from time to time. This makes it even tricky as one could easily be caught on the wrong foot by either going short or long at the wrong time. Buyer's could loose out on a lot of business to their respective competitors if they don't have enough cargo at the right price and the right time to sell or could be stuck with high priced cargo in their warehouses with no takers.

Difficult decisions to make which will surely keep all the Buyer's on their toes this time.
Would be interesting to see how the markets move , will Africa follow India's bullish trend or will they be happy/Forced to sell at lower levels just because they have so much more to sell than India. Their prices will surely remain lower than India otherwise India cannot import anything either.

The Domestic demand in India has grown substantially over the years and will start to come into play next month onwards and remain strong till Mid Jan. Their buying patter is erratic and irrational with sentiments playing more importance rather than actual consumption sometimes.
 
For India it could be particularly difficult year as Africa might find a foothold in countries where it traditionally has little or no presence. However India still has the advantage and upper hand in terms of Quality and Fair delivery.  

Not pointing fingers at anyone , it would not be wrong to say that Africa does have a dismal record on delivery when prices move up beyond a certain range , so it could be that low priced long term contracts may never reach or may reach later than you really need it. Either ways the buyers would end up loosing money and more importantly their respective clients business. We all know the value of keeping our clients intact in today's competitive world, one wrong move and its game over.

Then again we could be totally wrong and things may have changed over the years , this is just an apprehension and comment based on past experiences heard from within the commodity trade. 

Our suggestions as always would be not to be a speculator , the swings could be huge. This suggestion is for both long and short. Stick to good and reputed suppliers and not gamble around much in a year which could be highly volatile. 

Your good supplier is just as  important as your good client these days , its a chain and we are all just links in between so we need to keep the chain strong.Overall I see current levels pretty much close to the base with higher limits open for debate.

The double skin Bengal Hulled might make a comeback this year if the prices go up so my advice to the buyers ,Kindly be extra careful from whom and what you buyer specially in Hulled Sesame Sector. A few 100 dollars saved at the time of purchase may end up being a few 1000 $ claim plus reputation lost by the time the cycle is completed.

The USD has been fairly stable and hopefully will remain so in the near future with indian economy doing alright at the moment. However the ocean freights which went down to all time lows are bound to go up , infact have already gone up so that needs to be factored in as well for longer view of the market.






  




Tuesday, February 23, 2016

Sesame Seed Situation Feb 23rd




Markets as expected this year were bearish , however the fall has been substantially more that anyone expected. The major factor to this probably is a huge buffer stock that China had at the start of the season and a very big crop in India. The currency fluctuation in India as well as in Africa have impacted hugely to this fall as well.

Looking at the current situation it is evident that almost all of the trade is stuck with some high priced cargo in their warehouses , some are moving is quickly some waiting for th tides to turn. However i believe in a few months time the stocks and prices will balance out itself and the trade will start to move smoothly. There is little chance of a huge upturn at the moment as few African nation’s will harvest their crops in the coming months and India will also have their summer crop as well.

The farm arrivals in India have dropped as expected but there is still a huge stock in the warehouses which will easily sustain the little demand that will flow for the next few months, looking ahead i believe there will be some high’s in times to come but i doubt they will be sustainable for long periods. In general terms for the next 6 months , 180 days till the next big crop in China and India is harvested i see more days with stable or falling market than upward movement.

Once again i doubt there is a fall in consumption worldwide its just that people do not want to stock more than they actually need which is keeping the markets bearish. Everyone has their own idea of bottom levels and frankly speaking my levels have already been breached so cannot put a finger on a level where the markets will finally stop at. However at current levels the prices do look attractive and chances of loosing money on stocks at current levels are slim. 

Tuesday, September 22, 2015

Sesame Seed New Crop 2015



Hello Everyone ,

Im sure everyone is already aware , the new Indian Sesame crop is just around the corner.

Sowing this year has been great owing to some early monsoon rains and timely news of a low rainfall year. The farmers reacted in time and a lot of area was diverted to low water crops , sesame ofcourse being one of them.

The weather to a great extent has been favourable for a great harvest season , however a fairly long dry spell after Mid August all the way till now may affect the yields in certain areas where irrigations facilities are minimal. Having said that the overall increase in acreage might just negate any such losses and we should still see a huge crop ahead.

We’ve already witnessed the first signs of that as the markets have been discounted over 20-25% just on this news alone , the other factor ofcourse being the Rupee-USD ratios. The values have declined by almost 10% Y2Y basis.

Recently there was a conference on Sesame Seed in China where big players from all over the globe came and presented their views , just summarizing that for everyone around who was not there.

1:- China crop once again has been short , we’ve not seen a growth year in china for I think a decade now , the area for sesame seems to be reducing each year and some heavy rains led to further damage. The crop may be shorter by around 70,000-80,000 Mt compared to last year. However going by the business and consumption trends of china I’m not really worried about their crop size anymore, they are the biggest importers and consumers now and no matter what , they will go out and buy from wherever they find the quality and prices that suit them best for various uses.  A few thousand Metric tons  more or less I don’t think makes a difference to them as long as some country in the world has cargo to offer , weather the cargo comes from their own farm or from Latin America its not a big issue anymore as the trade now is much more organized.

2:- The Chinese imports

 2013                                      - 440,000 MT                     
 2014                                      - 570,000 MT
 2015(Mid June)                    - 430,000 MT

This means that they have good 6 months to cover the balance 140,000 + any shortfall they see in their crop + annual growth , which explains their slow buying pattern in the recent past. The carry over stocks are also fairly good for them to sustain till the end of the year where they can wait and watch the new African crop’s coming in and deciding to step in at the levels they feel comfortable from the origins that suits them best.

Similar numbers for Japan were also projected .
2013                                       - 140,000 MT           
2014                                       - 170,000 MT
2014( Mid June)                    -  95,000 MT (Approx )

Japan is also assumed to be fairly good on stocks and is not in a rush to enter the markets.

3:- Myanmar crop has always remained a mystery in terms of size and exports due to the border trade with China but rumors have it that their crop is also less than previous years due to heavy rainfall however those numbers are always debatable and its hard to predict what effect they will have on the global situation.

4:- African producing countries in East and West Africa all seems to have a good crop situation this year . Although only a few countries have had their sowing/harvest done so far the trend certainly points to a better crop in the coming season. There is no reason to believe that the sowing patterns will change due to softer prices as the sesame crop is now a fast selling product for the African farmers and still fetching them a fair price. Apart from some damage news from Sudan all other destinations should in my opinion have a similar or better crop than last year and there are carry over stocks in some countries as well.

5:- No confirmed news from South American destinations but the news says the prices there are soft as well with no rush or panic demand from anywhere.

6:- Coming to the Indian crop now.

    A:- Sowing is estimated to be 10-15% more than last year .This number is huge owing to the fact that it was actually less than normal last year due to a failed monsoon and in some cases total washout due to heavy flooding in certain areas.
A normal sowing area anyways gives us a huge crop but a 10-15% addition could result in what they say a “ Bumper Crop” .

    B:- Carry over stocks are not much , should be in the range of  25,000-30,000 MT max all areas put together . These are mostly the stocks with people who had stocked at high levels and are now stuck. The normal trend of stocking in India is that you invest say 20-25% of the money and get the balanced financed from the bankers when you stock the commodity in a warehouse. The prices for their stocks is now 25-30% lower and hence the stockiest are practically loosing on their entire deposit so all they can do it wait and play it slow hoping for a jump or at end they will just rotate their old stocks with new cargo and carry on.  That is why we are already seeing a disparity in prices with forwards being cheaper than the spot prices. The crop would have harvested early but some rains last week has pushed the arrival forward by a week or so, we expect tradable quantities to start arriving in various market yard by Mid of October.

   C:- Their was some issue with lesser rains in August and September and I do believe it may have stopped the “Bumper Crop” year from happening but a big crop non the less is surely on its way. The yields will be affected and crop size may reduce a little than expected but the quality should actually be better owing to lesser rain damaged crop. Once again hard to put a number on the crop that is still in the field but im assuming it should be atleast 15-20% more than last year. Everyone ofcourse has their own numbers for last year crop so you will have to do the maths.

Some Export Import Numbers :-

Year                                        Export
2010-11                                 - 398,441 MT 
2011-12                                 - 389,154 MT 
2012-13                                 - 299,482 MT
2013-14                                 - 257,443 MT
2014-15                                 - 375,656 MT

Year                                        Import
2010-11                                 -  8,727  MT
2011-12                                 -    609   MT
2012-13                                 - 38,050 MT
2013-14                                 - 72,928 MT
2014-15                                 - 34,767 MT

The last 2 years numbers are particularly very interesting for India , as you can see the export numbers have seen a steep increase in 2014-15 compared to the years before this even after India supposedly having a bad crop year. The import numbers have also seen a significant rise. India imported almost 100,000 MT that means we were almost among the top 5 worldwide importer along with the top exporting country.

India contributes roughly 30,000 Mt to the Korean Imports through the tender and we all know what big noise we Indian’s make about it. We actually imported more than what we contributed to the Korean Tender. With a huge crop expected this year it is highly unlikely India will be a importing destination this season , atleast not in a big way as some imports coming into India are based on customer requirement for African Hulled Seed which is being catered by some Huller's in India.
This means the African's will have a little more quantity in hand to sell elsewhere as India moves out of the importing equation.

Anyways I think the world market does’nt really move the way we in India think it does.
Last year we had a smaller crop and the volumes increased but markets still went down , 
the years before we had bigger crop yet the volumes decresead  but still the prices went up.

I guess the market movement is not really determined by what and how much you have to sell, its dependent more on when and how much the others want to buy. Buyer's market in simple words despite whatever we may think.

China having a short crop is no guarantee of markets moving up and similarly India having a huge crop is not a surety of prices going down. 

Markets we believe have already been discounted to a huge extent already in anticipation and in relation to all the above factors and more. The Currency movement being one of them.
We may still be a little off the bottom as the actual crop pressure is still to be seen and the buying/Stocking pattern worldwide still to unfold but with so much already factored in another steep fall from here looks remote now. Then there is always the Edible oil parity question , any oilseed getting cheaper weighs down on the mixing and blending for support and with the current prices of sesame it is almost at par or even lower than a few oilseeds already. 

There will surely be a great buying window for people who keep a watch on the market and then a rally back upwards for stability and parity with the global demand supply.We've seen a steady growth even when prices touched USD 3000 PMT and there is no reason to believe that demand or consumption will slow down at sub $2000 levels. The breach of $2000 /PMT for Hulled Sesame was really something i did not see coming so soon but it happened partly because of the currency changes and the huge supplies coming in from Africa. Looking at the world Import/Export numbers there seems to be no fall in consumption just change in buying destination and addition of newer suppling countries. 

My conclusion for the new crop once again would be to buy and sell at all levels rather than waiting for the bottom or peak’s. The policy of most buyers in the recent past had been spot buying and selling and looking at the market volatility and the economic conditions worldwide we believe its still the safest way to deal in commodities.  

The norms worldwide for food are becoming stricter by the day and I see no respite from this in the coming future , there are a lot of people in the trade who probably do not know anything beyond Sesame Seed , USD ????? CNF ?????.
They are least bothered or aware about what they are selling or even buying in some cases. Food Safety is here to stay. The more we interact as buyers/sellers the better it is for everyone involved.


 “Garbage In Garbage Out”

 I had pointed out a couple of years ago the birth of Double skin Bengal Hulled Sesame Seed and other varieties of Pearly White Chemically Bleached Hulled Sesame Seed made from Brown sesame etc and im sure a lot of the clients who fell for those varieties learnt a expensive lesson. Thankfully the markets got aware and with a bigger crop this year I am hopeful that such varieties will find fewer takers.



Saturday, August 15, 2015

Goma Sesame. Sesamum indicum. ゴマ、胡麻。


Sesame is an annual, flowering plant which is cultivated for its seeds, which grow in pods. Sesame has been long known to mankind as an oilseed: it was first cultivated about 5,000 years ago in Egypt and the Sahara area. It was already know in Japan in the middle or later Jomon-period (2,500-300 BCE) and there are records of its cultivation for lamp oil in the Nara-period (710-784). In the ensuing Heian-period (794-1185) it was also used for medicinal purposes.

Nowadays, 99.9% of all sesame used in Japan is imported. Only a small amount is produced on Kikaijima, one of the Amami Islands belonging to Kagoshima prefecture. The highest production of sesame comes from Burma, India and China.

Sesame has a nutty flavor and is rich in oil. It comes in three forms: white, black and golden (this last one is said to have the best aroma, but is not readily available). White sesame seeds contain more oil than black ones, but black sesame has a somewhat stronger, nuttier flavor.

Sesame seeds are sold in four forms: (1) untoasted, (2) toasted, (3) toasted and roughly ground as well as (4) toasted and ground into a smooth paste.

One can toast sesame seeds oneself by heating a dry frying pan over low to medium heat, then put in the seeds and toast them in 1-2 minutes. Shake the pan occasionally so that all the seeds get heated through. Be careful not to overroast the sesame.

For grinding, in Japan a suribachi is used, a bowl-shaped ceramic mortar which has small grooves on the inside. For the grinding, a wooden pestle (surikogi) is necessary, so that the bowl is not damaged. Grind the seeds until they are flaky and aromatic. Ground sesame is only good fresh, so use it soon after grinding.

Goma (sesame seed) with mortar (suribachi) and pestle (surikogi)
[Sesame seeds (goma) with mortar (suribachi) and wooden pestle (surikogi)]

Sesame is used in Japan in the following ways:
  • Toasted but not ground (irigoma): black sesame seeds are sprinkled over rice or other dishes to add a color accent (furikake). Sesame seed is also an important ingredient in prepackaged furikake. Both black and white sesame seeds can be used on the outside of uramaki (inside-outside rolls, like the California roll).
  • Toasted and ground sesame is called surigoma in Japanese. Used in many recipes in the Japanese cuisine, starting with adding it to shira-ae (cooked vegetables dressed with tofu). As on the picture above, surigoma can also be used in the sauce for tonkatsu.
  • Sesame dressing (gomadare) is one of the most popular dressings for salads in Japan and can be found in all supermarkets.
  • Sesame paste (nerigoma) is also sold in supermarkets and can be used as a spread on bread, like peanut butter (but much more tasty!). 
  • Sesame oil (goma-abura). The best oil for cooking, thanks to its flavor, often blended as it is rather thick. It is indispensable in the oil mixture used for deep-frying tempura.
Sesame is high in proteins and since olden times, various health benefits have been ascribed to it.

"Goma" has also found its way into general culture. As grinding sesame seeds in a suribachi is hard work, the expression "goma-suri" was born to indicate "flattery," especially flattery of one's superior.

Sunday, August 9, 2015

BRC and IFS Certification for Hulled Sesame Seed


We are proud to share our BRC and IFS Certificates with everyone who cares and knows the importance of these in the food Industry.

However I must add that working tirelessly over the past 1 year to achieve the status 
we learnt a very important lesson, 
" Certification is not always a Guarantee of Quality its just a commitment for Improvement"

We are now the first and only Factory in India to have both BRC and IFS certification done together for Exclusive Hulling and Export of Hulled Sesame Seed from India , being in existence since 1996 it was a tough challenge for us to get our old Infrastructure in line with the very stringent bylaws and conditions of the certification body but with a total commitment and resolve we finally did manage to overcome the odds. 

We graciously Thank all our esteemed buyers who believed in us for all these years and stood by us in good times and bad and without whom this level would not have been possible. We promise to keep working harder in serving you with utmost integrity and honesty in the coming future and in return all we expect is your invaluable and indispensable oversight and experince towards betterment .





For those would would like to have their Supplier Questionnaire's updated and filled and if you need soft copies of the certificates and other documents please feel free to email me on
mukul@shakumbhri.org. It would be our pleasure to provide you with all the information.

We are participating in ANUGA , Cologne, Germany between 10-14th October 2015. 

We kindly request you to visit and grace us at our Booth no. F-036, Hall No. 11.3 , India Pavilion.





Wednesday, July 16, 2014

Sesame Seed Monsoon/New Crop July 16th 2014


Hi Everyone,

Been a long time since I updated the post , actually there was nothing much to write anyways. Everyone had their own idea's of the Market and without numbers in hand it made little sense to counter the predictions/Guesstimates and view of the market.

Lets first look at some of the things that have happened in the past few months.

1:- Summer crop in Gujrat came out and although everyone put out numbers in excess of 150,000 MT , the official survey reports pegged it at around 115,000 MT.

2:-  The hulling industry saw the birth of another quality this year from Double Skin Bengal Brown Sesame seed. I had my apprihensions about the quality and I continue to do so. Thankfully people are now atleast offering it a different grade altogether so that buyer's now have a choice weather to buy cheap chemical laden product or opt for the Premium Product. The price difference is almost $200-$300 PMT so you need to be careful what you buy and from whom you buy.

If you buy the cheaper grade at cheaper quality knowingly its perfectly fine and a personal decision but incase someone sends you the cheaper quality at a slightly discounted price compared to the Premium it means instead of saving $100 PMT you probably lost $200 and now you work with the risk of selling substandard quality to your premium grade buyer's.

The Brown Sesame Grade is here to stay so everyone needs to be extra careful from now on.

3:- The stock levels as rightly predicted have touched a all time low , Stocks in the states of UP, MP and Rajasthan have almost finished. Atleast for UP and MP I can predict with utmost confidence that they might not have more than 5000 MT put together and even this is a exaggerated number.
I wouldn't be wrong in saying that the only reason buyer's have been able to buy from India and India has been able to export Sesame is because of Gujrat Summer crop from Mid May onwards.


Now to some numbers

1:- Gujarat Summer Crop :-
Arrivals started around 15th May,Peak arrivals around 25th May and Dipped again around 25th June. Peak Arrivals average around 25,000 Bags/Day or about 2000 MT/Day.
Slow Arrival Average around   8,000 Bags/Day or about   600 MT/Day
      Peak Arrival Days :- 30 , Slow Arrival Days :- 30

Total Quantity = (30 X 2000MT) + (30 X 600MT) = 78,000 MT. This number might still be off by 10% so lets assume we've had a crop close to 90,000. Even though I never put a number our regular clients will know that we never estimated the crop to be above 100,000 Mt .

Some people might argue there were days with 35,000 Bags/Day arrival as well , so to factor in the odd days I have taken a average without considering the holidays or carry over sales of the day.

2:- Indian Sesame Seed Export Import Data for the past 2 years
Export
S.No.HSCodeCommodityUnit2012-20132013-2014%Growth
1.120740SEASAMUM SEEDS MT299,482.29257,443.09-14.04
S.No.HSCodeCommodityUnit2010-20112011-2012%Growth
2 .120740SEASAMUM SEEDS  MT398,441.17389,154.01-2.33
Import
S.No.HSCodeCommodityUnit2012-20132013-2014%Growth
1.120740SEASAMUM SEEDS MT38,050.4572,928.0991.66    
S.No.HSCodeCommodityUnit2010-20112011-2012%Growth
2120740SEASAMUM SEEDS MT8,727.92609.28-93.02

Interesting number's these. You will notice in the past 4 years the Exports from India have dipped by almost 140,000 MT but the Imports have risen by almost 70,000 MT.

India cannot import Sesame for domestic consumption so all that we are importing we are re-exporting.
Its a similar pattern to what China had till it became a net Importer. The domestic consumption in India is rising and the buyer's here are willing to pay a better price as well with less headache and faster payment terms. The African markets have opened up for everyone in the trade and India I believe is one of the biggest buyer from Africa now , weather they import the seeds into India or get them exported directly to various destinations is another story.


Current Situation and Future Predictions :-

1 :- Anyone thinking that the stockiest in India are sitting on huge loads of stocks in their warehouses is in for a big shock in the coming months. The stock situation is at a all time low in every sesame producing area and whatever little there is left should only be enough for India to sustain its export demand for the next 3 month until the new crop arrives.

2:- The monsoon is really weak in India and with almost 40% less rainfall the situation looks unlikely that it will improve. The late rains means that sowing in most areas has not even started now.
Going by the data available online

 "In oilseeds in particular, there has been 83 per cent drop as of last week July vis-a-vis July last year in terms of the area under sowing. "

"Sowing of most kharif crops barring paddy is significantly lower than the corresponding area last year. According to agriculture ministry data, a total of 25.6 million hectare area has been down as on July 12, half of the corresponding area of 51.76 million hectare sown in the corresponding period last year. Most affected is the sowing of crops like pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton"

 "As on July 15, cotton sowing is done on 10.19 lakh hectares against normal of 27.17 lakh hectares, while groundnut sowing is 5.41 lakh hectares against normal 14.39 lakh hectares in the state. Total area under cultivation in the state is 11.25 lakh hectares as against the normal 26 lakh hectares."

"It would be a blind bet for the cash crops because rains are uncertain and the crop may fail. In this situation at least the farmers have to save their cattle by making adequate fodder available.The present rainfall is insufficient for sowing of cash crops because it would require more moisture in the soil. But with such rains, fodder is an option for farmers to survive their cattle"

Even if we assume that these estimates are wrong we can safely say that the sowing will be short and even if the rains come today and sowing starts tomm , which i don't think will happen anyways looking at the rainfall situation the sowing area is unlikely to be anywhere near what it was in the previous years. Even if the sowing finish by End July , the new crop will not be available before November now and that means for the next 3 months India will absolutely finish every last kilo of Sesame stock and might go into African markets aggressively to shop around , taking the global prices higher and higher till they can be cooled down by the new crop.

3:- The new crop predictions should start as usual in September-Early October and any bad news can create further panic , we also have to keep in mind that even that little new crop will be on the mercy of the rains , we have seen in the past few years what damage the last few weeks of rains can do to sesame seed crops.

4:- The festival season and Winter demand for the domestic markets in India should also start around Mid October and with no new crop in sight the old stocks will quickly be diverted to the domestic market where they fetch a better price. 

5:- I am not implying in anyway that the buyers need to stock their warehouses today in anticipation of price rise , there still are many factors which can cool down price

a:- Good crop in China and Myanmar , this will divert all the Chinese and to an extent the South Asian 
     Oil based demand.
b:- Drop in demand , again I say demand and not consumption. If on the shelf it will sell.
c:- A huge crop in India in a range of 250,000 -300,000 Mt.
d:- A normal to huge crop in Africa
e:- Currency factor is always there

Looking at all the factors above we believe there might be another bullish year ahead , atleast till December when African markets will once again determine the fate of prices for the next few months.
However with global prices available to everyone on real time basis atleast "WE" would not be naive enough to think that Africans would sell their cargo at throw away prices when they know for sure that no one else can fill in the global supply gap. With carry over stocks worldwide at all time low chances are we would continue to move hand to mouth basis for the next season as well.

Looking at the global scenario my suggestion once again to the buyer's who like to do business on a long term basis is to get into collaborations with actual Manufacturer Exporters rather than relying on fly by the night new suppliers and brokers. You might get lucky with small trader's once or twice but for a larger picture you do not even realize that slowly you are getting sidelined in the business and someone else is taking up that space. The only way to move forward in this global economy is to have a stable and reliable supplier base.

Switching to inferior quality in tough times might look like the best option initially but by the time the world spins around again you would find yourself on the wrong planet altogether.

Tough choice but thats what life is all about.