sesameseedmarket

2011-10-20T17:30:00.002+05:30

Dear Friends,

Good Day !

We take this opportunity to thank you for visiting our Booth at 'ANUGA 2011' Germany.

It was a pleasure meeting you at ANUGA and discussed the business prospects.

Just to give you an update, the new Sesame Seed crop has harvested and arrived in the market. We were expecting the prices to go down on arrival of the crop in market but we do not see that happening.

Our Association got a survey done and the crop is estimated to be around 300,000 Mt , some people still feel the numbers are high but since the sowing area did go up in UP and Rajasthan and rains stopped just in time before it could do any more damage we could be close to this number.

That said the crop is still short as compared to the previous years and the stockists are bullish. However since a lot of panic was created in the market before the harvest a lot of business was done for the old crop and that means that the actual demand could come in a little late than anticipated.

Sudan crop is projected to be smaller as well and so is china. However China we believe have good stocks at the moment and they can afford to wait a little longer for the african crop to come in before they step up their buying.

Considering all the variables & the volatility and as company policy of not speculating we suggest cautious buying and we think that it is better to try and make
a good average rather than wait for the bottom this year.

In Hulled we think there will be stiff resistance around $1700 FOB and $1900 FOB this year as well. If and when the prices do cross $2000 levels we expect a bull run upto $2400FOB after that.On the lower side we believe that $1650 FOB -1700 FOB should be the bottom for Premium Quality Hulled.

Not a lot of people have gone long this year ( buyers and sellers) and that should keep everyone busy all year round.

We look forward to your support and business.

2011-09-24T14:51:00.000+05:30

Market Report Sesame Seed September 15th 2011

2011-09-15T15:42:00.002+05:30

Hi Everybody

It’s that time of the year again when we spend more time on the internet searching for news about sesame than actually buying/selling it  Here is my contribution to the search.

After a very dull and boring 3 years we finally have some movement and excitement back in the trade. Prices remained almost stable over the past few seasons, moving within a set price band.
What will be the Indian crop size this year? How much is the carry forward stock?
How much will China buy? How is their crop?
What is happening to the crop and prices in Africa?

These are a few nagging questions in everyone’s mind along with of course the most important question “ What is the RIGHT time and PRICE to buy” . I wish I knew the correct answer to any of these question (It sure could make me some money) but unfortunately I don’t so we play the guessing game like always. All of you probably have the numbers and figures from elsewhere but here is my version.

1:- CARRY OVER STOCKS :
Last year the crop was estimated to about 350,000 MT + we had about 70,000 Mt in summer crop that makes it around 420,000 MT crop in the past 11 month. The exports from India did increase substantially and between April 2010 – March 2011 we exported about 340,000 MT.
If we take the export numbers between Oct 2010- September 2011, I think it should be roughly the same as well . This means our carryover stocks should not be more than 30-40,000 Mt at this point of time. ( I know the numbers don’t add up but assuming that India exported a lot of hulled , I am adding 20-25 % extra for the raw material yield loss in making hulled Sesame )
So the carryover stocks are nothing big if you distribute it between 100’s of small stockist who are probably holding onto 50 or 100 mt each , and these are stubborn cash rich stockist who will not sell the cargo unless they are making good profits.
That means irrespective of what price is India will have enough sesame to keep their factories running and exporters busy till new crop arrives around Mid of October.
No comments on the Quality though.

2:- NEW CROP :---
hmmmm...20% less...25-30%..i’ve even heard the number to be 40%-50%. Which one will hold true we’ll only know when the full crop is harvested by end of November. However if i were to put a number i would say less by at least 30-35% . It’s been raining cats and dogs in some sesame growing regions of Gujarat and Rajasthan even till last week and that is bound to created damage.

UP and MP sowing was very promising to start with but as rains played spoilsport we heard many farmers gave up on sesame crop. Just last week there was a report that Soyabean crop estimates in MP were revised downward due to rain damage, my guess is if soya crop is damaged due to rains the sesame plant surely will be as well. However since the sowing area had increased whatever damage we had was compensated to quite an extent. So if I had to put a number on the crop i would say
Last year 340,000 – 35% =220,000 Mt . I would assume anything between 200,000 -225,000 in realistic terms.

We’ve had a very good monsoon this year, which usually means a very cold and good winter season so the domestic consumption of sesame should be healthy this year as well. But that apart the mere fact that the crop is less with get the stockist and traders back in action and huge crop will end up in stocks creating an artificially void or demand when the new crop arrives.

3:- SITUATION IN THE PAST 3 MONTHS
Prices in Indian rupee terms have gone up by almost 20% in the past 3 months , all the stockist which were sitting on high prices cargo and contemplating losses got a chance to exit and that renewed their confidence that if you wait sesame stocks ultimately pays back. This confidence im sure will come into picture when they are active again during the new crop.

The USD has been very strong , up almost 8-9% over the past 2 months which have made the prices in $ terms look not that dramatic , however this could change very quickly is the rupee is stronger again , not to mention that ocean freights have been rising slowly and steadily as well and tend to peak during the Nov-Feb period.
The Korean Tenders as well all know is now part of the export numbers from India . With the complicated payment terms and strict quality and delivery schedule it is unlikely that Africa will we participating aggressively . So keep aside about 50,000 MT for the Korean Tender from this crop.

CHINA...Will they buy...ofcourse they will , when , how much , at what price , i don’t know but they have too. They have found out a way to get the Hulled into china from India and the numbers can only grow this year. Their crop is estimated to be slightly smaller than last year and the demand continues to rise. If prices go up in India , same will happen in Africa as well ,infact over the past 2 yrs African prices have always remained above India and there is no reason to belive that they will sell at a discounted prices this year. So if the difference between Indian and African prices remains China will continue to cover part of the requirement from India as well.

4: - GLOBAL SCENARIO
I’m no expert on African crop but from what i have heard they have just enough stocks to work with till their new crop arrives and with no significant increase in sowing area and not so favorable climate in growing countries I presume that their crop size will not be any bigger than in past.

The buying pattern though seems to have changed over the past few years. Earlier we saw that the buyers would almost stop buying from July/August onwards and would finish all their stocks by September/October and then come out aggressively in Oct-Nov to cover, now they are buying old crop all the way till October shipment. It has partially to do with the growth of infrastructure and machine upgrades and partially as everyone wants to work back to back now, rather than keep open positions for too long. This means we might not see the mad rush to buy on new crop as most Indian stockist and exporters are anticipating. However it is also true that most destinations are not holding big stocks and will have to buy regularly.

5:- BULLISH YEAR
Certainly looks like one. Most exporters will not sell too far forward this year , they did that in 2007 , almost all Indian exporters honoured their contracts , even though they local suppliers defaulted , but after 3 boring tough year I doubt they are in the same state of mind.

I’m sure there are some eager beavers who would want to speculate and sell forward with open contracts but I assure you if the prices jump the way they did in 2007-08 we will see a lot more defaults that we did back then. So pick and choose your supplier carefully.

Conclusion:
We expect the market to remain firm & bullish at least till the new crop arrivals start coming in. With Diwali this year on 26th October I don’t expect the volumes to pick up before that. That also makes it very tricky, if the arrivals before Diwali are small , most people would assume that they will increase up after Diwali and will wait but if the arrivals don’t increase significantly then KAAAAABOOOOM  Hard choices , hope you make the right one.
As usual, currency fluctuation is a vital influencing factor.

Monsoon Map

2011-06-01T13:39:00.002+05:30

From the predictions once again the Govt says the monsoon is on time...will be normal etc etc . They love to paint a rosy picture but the past has taught us that more often than not they are wrong with their predictions.

You find below the actual Monsoon progression as on June 1st. Its running a bit late and with the intense heat and dry weather through out the sesame sowing area ( I was in gujrat , MP and U.P ) the field are empty and dry and will need a few days of rains before the sowing can start.

My feeling again this year for the crop to be a little late. Will keep the blog updated for anymore developments

New common market pact threatens sesame export from Ethiopia

2010-11-13T17:31:00.001+05:30

The ASEAN pact negotiations, the new common market, will be a threat to the Ethiopian sesame export.

Currently, negotiations are taking place between Middle East and Asian countries to form a new common market in order to export tax free. The negotiations are expected to conclude this fiscal year and would affect Ethiopia's sesame exports to China, the major buyer of the seed

India, the largest sesame seed producer and exporter, is one of the members of the new common market group.

Ethiopia is one of the top four sesame seed producing countries. The commodity is the country's second largest export following coffee. It has been sold under the Ethiopian Commodity Exchange since last May.

Ethiopia has an attractive portfolio of high value, specialty sesame seeds for the export market, according to different studies. The new Asian countries' pact is expected to increase the price of seeds exported to China and other Asian countries, according to sector traders.

"The government will support the sector aggressively through its embassies to expand new markets, before a crisis comes," said Mussie Yackob(PhD), president of the Ethiopian Pulses, Oilseeds and Spices Processors Exporters Association (EPOSPEA).
EPOSPEA celebrated exporters' day in the presence of government officials and members of the association at the Hilton Hotel last Monday. About 90% of oilseeds, pulses and spices are exported by the members of this association which has around 80 active members.

Ethiopia exported about 4.4 million quintals of oilseeds, pulses and spices in the last budget year, which is 493% higher than five years ago.
During the same year, the country earned 446 million dollar from the export sector, which was a record for the country. According to the sector experts, this growth is 20% higher than exports from the previous year. The experts admit that the international financial crisis has influenced most of the country's exports.

2010-08-02T13:13:00.000+05:30

Market Report 28th July 2010

2010-07-28T14:44:00.001+05:30

1:- Markets remained stableand were range bound in $1550-$1650 FOB for Hulled Sesame for most past of this season. We had a big summer crop in Gujrat but even that did not get the markets to crash so we figured there was a bottom being formed there.

2:- Stockist held onto their high priced stocks and decided they will take a chance with the next crop rather than offloading the cargo at lower levels in May/June and the supplies became limited and the prices stable.

3:- News of Korean Tender does create ripples everytime it is announced and did the same in early July as well , however the situation compounded with sudden renewed demand from China and Turkey and news that the Chinese crop was damaged . The figures of damage range from 50% to 20% so our fair estimate is that the damage is somewhere between 20-30%.

4:- The monsoons in India got delayed and some sesame growing area’s got very heavy rainfall and there could be a crop shift there , while in states like Gujarat and Rajasthan there is bound to be a crop shift to Cotton and Groundnut by the farmers as those crops are yielding better returns for them.

5:- Some African crops have been damaged as well and there is not much carry over stock in Africa too and with the Ramadan demand next month those stocks are likely to be further depleted. Prices have already jumped significantly there and are unlikely to drop as fast as they do in India.

6:- Last 3 weeks have seen a price jump of almost 15% and that has given the stockiest hope and strength once more to hold on and it is highly unlikely they will sell in panic anytime soon , Yes in some cases where the stocks changed hands , the new high price owner might panic and sell but those may not be too many in numbers and volume.

7:- Atleast one Korean Tender will most likely be announced before the new crop and that means a good 7-8000 MT has to be shipped out from current stocks.

8:- New crop is unlikely to come out in full swing before Mid Oct and by then the China story will be very clear and if the rumours hold true im afraid we could end up seeing a situation like 2007 all over again.

9:- Indian crop size in most probability will not be any bigger in size than previous years and some buyer’s fail to notice that despite low demand from china and turkey that crop size hasbarely been enough to last a full year unless we have a bumper summer crop . We’ve not had any big carry over’s despite the fall in export volumes over the past 2 years and even a 20% fall in Chinese crop means they would need about 100,000 Mt additionally , weather its from India or Africa is another story , which is more than 1/3^rd of India’s October Harvest if we assume the crop size will be around 260,000 MT (same as last year).

10:- Our data analysis for the past 10 yrs show that on new crop the prices drop about 10-15% initially over the closing September levels and then move up again ( Drastically in last few yrs and gradually before That) , in either case if we assume that the situation will be same this year the stockists are bound to latch onto the 10-15% decline very very quickly as those levels will seem very attractive compared to the Prices in the last few yrs.

11:- Another reason should be that everyone who is still stuck at high levels stocks would want to average out their purchase by tring to cover more and more at lower levels.

12:- Everyone knows that the stocks at destinations are not too big either as most buyers have been moving back 2 back most of this season , the demand has to return and buyer’s have to buy, when and how much and at what levels they will decide to step in is the question.

13:- Overall our assessment is that we may see some dips from time to time but on lower levels we see a very strong resistance at $1600 FOB levels and on the higher side its anyone’s guess .

14:- The USD is also likely to play a major role as it always has , we saw it go down to Rs 44.50 levels before bouncing back to Rs 47.50 levels again and currently its back to Rs 46.70 levels. Hopefully it will remain high and help the exporters keep the prices competitive.

Its still to early to predict the new crop situation but judging the farmers sentiments and the monsoon position we don’t see the crop size to be bigger than last year in anycase. Our estimates of current stocks in India is about 30-40,000 MT at most and that is spread between so many people its hard to judge how many will hold on and how many will finish their’s before the new crop.

If the news from China and Africa are correct , yes we are bullish for the coming season , if not still I believe the prices might remain range bound between $1600 -$1900 in any case.

Market Report 12th April 2010

2010-04-12T15:18:00.001+05:30

Hello Everyone,

Its been a long time since I updated the market reports but as we all know there was very little action in the market to write anyways.

Last few weeks ofcourse has seen some serious action and now everyone is back on their toes trying to study the market and predicting the direction. Lets first look into the scenario that unfolded in the past 6 months i.e after the new crop.

1:- As everyone predicted and expected the crop was fairly good although not as big as the last crop but definitely a good sized one which could have sustained and fed the export demand well.

2:- We started on a low key and the crop was a little late but on anticipation of a good crop the exporters offered low levels which were fair priced enough for the buyers and they took in a good quantity.

3:- Then the usual Indian market mischief happened and prices shot up by 15-20% in 2 weeks time and everyone who was short was caught off guard.The stockist thought it was a repeat of the year before and speculated that the prices will go even higher thus hoarded the crop in a big way. Result was that the demand suddenly shifted towards Africa and prices started to come down slowly, however the stockist continued to buy trying to make an average.Even the farmers held back the crop and brought in less every time prices tried to go down.

4:- The Korean Tenders came and went, India got a substantial quantity but with even bigger stocks its failed to create any ripples.In fact prices move up in anticipation every time the Tender is announced and fail to continue the upward move even after the tender is declared as the bidders are mostly covered or prefer to wait a while before covering themselves rather than rushing into buying as they normally did in the past.

5:- Then came the big bang , Chinese demand was supposed to return after their new year break but all the waiting and expectations were dashed after they came ...they saw ...but they didn't buy.

6:- Stockists still held their nerves , in fact even as i speak they are still optimistic. The reason being that in line previous years where stocks were being held largely but corporate giants and exporters this year the stocking happened at very low levels Farmers , middleman , village level suppliers , yard based stockist etc with factories and exporters keeping very little in hand.

7:- Now when everyone See's that the demand is fairly low and the new Gujarat Summer crop ( Last yr is was about 60-70,000 Mt , this year should be 40-50,000 MT as well , I presume lower crop due to very very dry climate and lower sentiments in farmers due to prices) there is a bit of a panic and a lot of suppliers want to finish off their stocks so its kind of a fire sale going on right now.

8:- The USD has fallen to the levels of 44.30 , levels last seen about 2 yrs ago and with the improvement in economic conditions in India we don't see that it will be able to climb up any higher. The $ affect is bound to
keep the export prices in a certain bandwidth for some time now.

All this said and done we still believe there is another twist left in the tale :) Prices have bottomed out to some extent and the most stockists have already booked the losses and moved out.

I dont know how many people actually keep a watch over the world weather but the news in drought in China is quite alarming. http://www.ipsnews.net/news.asp?idnews=50996
Although its still early for the new sesame crop sowing in china , my doubt remains weather the Chinese Govt would try to promote sesame sowing or rice/pulses/grain sowing this year as their food basket seems to behalf full at this stage and with food inflation still very high the decisions could be drastic.

In India as well the last 5 months have been very very dry and summers seems to be here early with Temp already touching 40 degree in some areas.If the summer crop is good and price do fall more from current levels it could mean that in terms of farmer the price that they get per Hectare would fall to almost half levels of what they saw a couple of years back and their might again be a crop shift as pulses are still very high priced.

The stocks in India and Africa are still presumed to be quite large and should be enough to last us till the new crop however its the prices of the old stock that can drastically affect the direction in which the new crop could move.A lot of exporters faced problems with default from Buyer's this year and the trade is getting a little cautious now sadly the new babies in the trade do get sucked in by greed and mis-information and the cycle continues.

However one thing is sure that in future we will see a lot more defaults from both sellers and buyers as the trade got dirty over the past few years with the sellers defaulting on low prices earlier and the some buyer's creating problems with high prices later on , now its almost common to hear such stories.

Test blog

2010-03-03T12:07:00.001+05:30

This a test blog from blackberry device
Sent from my BlackBerry® smartphone from !DEA

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED NOV 23TH , 2009

2009-11-23T13:57:00.000+05:30

What kind of world do we wake up to each morning these days? And how did we get here?

Good news ,we are getting used to price levels unheard of earlier. That is a good sign because high prices are the curefor high prices.Producers crippled by rising input and labor costs realize to their amazement they still have a market.

Once again its been a very strange start to the sesame season in India.Our initial estimated posted on the September 9th report of the crop being about 280,000 MT in stark contradiction to the market sentiments at that time seem to be more or less on target at the moment looking at the arrivals figures of past 1 month in India.

Just as we mentioned in the last report the crop was certainly late and although the prices did fall in anticipation of a good crop early in October the speculators and stockiest just went berserk suddenly by end of the month. It seems like the late crop arrival led to a lot of short covering which combined with the factors of lower arrivals , bullish sentiments of the stockiest , almost zero carry forward stocks apart from some in Gujarat region , weak USD,the crop delay in Africa,a very strong domestic demand which is likely to support the markets till Jan end and to top it all the announcement of Korean tender in the end of Oct all played their part in the sudden rise.

However all that is past and the big question now remains about the prices for next few months.I wish i knew the answer too. As you would notice from the above para there were a lot of factors put together that contributed to the price rise and in my personal opinion it would take just about the same number of factors to pull it down as well.Individual factors like lack of demand or a good African crop may bring the prices down a bit but they are bound to jump back from them quickly enough.

Now looking at the trigger points one by one

1:- Arrivals are unlikely to pick up in India anymore.If price was the factor farmers should have already brought in the cargo inhaste to the yards but they didn't. This could mean 2 things that either all the estimates are wrong and in reality the crop is not as big as estimated or the farmers will continue/prefer selling in small lots and are maintaining a benchmark price below which they will not sell.

2:- Although the domestic demand will drop drastically after Jan , by then it would have substantially finished a huge quantity from the market. We have always underestimated the domestic sesame consumption in India but in the last 2 yrs the market has seen and knows that the demand is steadily increasing.

3:- Stocking this year has happened at 4 different levels a:- Farmers b:-Middle man c:- Wholesaler/Stockiest d:- Manufacturer/Exporters

The different levels give that much more room and financial support to the market to avoid that sudden fall which we have seen in the past. Even if one levels panics there is another level to support the market.The problem in India is that with high prices govt has put a stock limit on most of the active commodities , Rice, Wheat , Sugar , Edible oil all have stock limit so there are more and more stockiest looking for newer and other commodities to stock and hoard. That means the crop is now divided into a lot of smaller parts which makes the fall pattern slower and rise patter more drastic.

4:- African crop, the biggest factor .Well in my opinion they have always been taken for granted by most buyers and I don't think that will be the trend in the coming future anymore.The crop in Sudan has been very actively consumed within the middle east itself , with Egypt emerging as its biggest buyer. Ethiopian seeds continue to enjoy their preferential status in China and with their superior taste/preference advantage should continue to be priced competitively.The Japanese buyer have been known to be very fond of the Nigerian seeds and although they are

not active in the market at the moment , its just a matter of time before they will step in and pick up the south American and Nigerian crops in a frenzy. All other African nations usually follow the price trends in the " BIG 3 "and mark their prices accordingly.

5:- Korean Tender...We've already seen Africa pricing themselves above India in the last Korean Tender and despite a rebidding they were not very active in it.I think with all the banking,shipping and quality constrains of Korean Tender , India will continue to be its biggest bidder. That means about 40-50,000 MT Natural Sesame from India in the coming 10 months is set aside just for that.

6:- Chinese demand is unlikely to come to India at these high levels which means they will do all their shopping in Africa, and despite the fact that they have a good crop they will shop for sure.Myanmar crop is down about 40% and that means the 100,000 Mt which Myanmar supplied to China is no longer available and although not all 100,000 will be needed but that still means that China will have to look elsewhere to substitute a part of that quantity.

7:- South American crop is estimated to be of the same size if not smaller and just like last year they will continue to feed their own niche market without much surplus to impact prices in India and Africa.

8:- The USD is also unlike to regain past levels. Currently 1USD = 46.40 INR.

We still believe there is a huge psychological resistance at $1750 FOB for Hulled from the sellers point of view and on the upside at $1950 from the buyers point of view. In Natural the levels seem be at $ 1450 FOB and $ 1650 FOB respectively.It remains an open secret that the buyers are short and they have to resume buying at some point and the market here seem to be waiting just for that.

Ofcourse we will see dips from time to time on profit bookings and as always we sincerely suggest the buyers to take advantage of the dips and try to make an average rather than waiting for the absolute bottom before stepping as that bottom may be impossible to judge in this volatile market.We agree that most buyers think that this is another bubble and may burst anytime but sitting on the shore waiting and watching will be no good either , the best way forward to accept the fact that volatility is here to stay and we all have to learn to live with it.

No one expect and predicted India's shift from being a rice exporter to a rice importer ,this has been triggered by concern India may itself be running short of this daily staple.India, a low-cost producer and among the top three exporters of rice in the world, will continue to export premium basmati rice, which is beyond the budget of most families.All this doesn't make sense does it? But these are bitter facts.

India should continue to be a force as far as Hulled Sesame is concerned, the domestic market is growing and developing rapidly just as it did in china a few yrs ago.All of us forget that fact that even 10 yrs ago when India was exporting less than 200,000 Mt of Sesame (Hulled/Natural)combined it was still consuming the balance 400,000 it produced domestically.The only difference is that at that point the domestic consumption was price

driven while the current consumption is a combination of price and changing eating habits.Sesame oil in India has moved up from being a cheap mixing option in Edible oil to a self standing commodity.

Even so, bread, buns , burgers and bagels are foods that we choose to eat. They are not as critical for our health and survival as Lentils and vegetable.Or so we thought. Not anymore. The Indian consumer remains willing and able to buy them directly or consume them through processed foods without much outcry. Sure, a few families will cut back. But not so you would notice. Our new food choices are here to stay.

ANUGA

2009-10-03T16:37:00.000+05:30

WE CORDIALLY INVITE YOU TO VISIT US AT ANUGA,COLOGNE.
OCT 10th-14th , HALL 1.1 BOOTH F 039a. INDIA PAVILION.

2009-09-09T16:28:00.000+05:30

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED SEPT 9TH , 2009

2009-09-09T16:26:00.000+05:30

I am sure everyone is awaiting the new crop arrival of Sesame Seed in India. The crop as we all know by now is a little delayed.Usually we see the 60 Days crop of Gujrat coming out by Early September and the normal crop by Mid of September after which U.P/M.P/Rajasthan crop follow around end October and early October.

However this year we think the whole crop is delayed by about 2 weeks so we don't see the arrival pressure's building before Mid of October or also possibly by 2nd half October as the Diwali festival in India is on the 17th Oct and farmers and traders are usually on a week's break during this festive period.

The crop situation has thankfully improved a lot over the past 2 weeks as compared to what it was perceived in early August with a very bad monsoon situation.In certain areas the drought is still very severe and we expect crop failure's in those areas, these area mainly fall in the Rajasthan/U.P/M.P border region.

The sowing this year started a little late and then we saw a big gap between the rains, some areas were able to sustain this period and with the rains back now we hope all will be alright.The only doubt that remains is a situation like last year where late rains resulted
in a huge crop damage at the time of harvest.

As of now from what we have heard and seen , India's crop distribution should be as follows

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

--------------------------------2008 Crop----------2009 Crop Estimates (Mts)

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

U.P/MP-------------------- 85,000 MT ---------- 130,000 MT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Rajasthan----------------- 90,000 MT---------- 80,000 MT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Gujrat ---------------------- 60,000 MT---------- 60,000 MT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Others--------------------- 10,000 MT---------- 10,000 MT

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Total -----------------------245,000 MT---------- 280,00 MT

Last year old crop is almost zero with only limited stocks available due to the bumper Summer crop we had in Gujarat earlier this year. Taking this into account we assume that market should remain stable this year at some lower levels , but this will again all depend on the Chinese demand and African crop which come out in Nov end/Dec this year.

Chinese are said to be having a good crop this year but as a fact we all know they will still need more than they can produce and will certainly buy from cheaper origins whenever possible.

Once again as you know in India things are a little different and we tend to overreact most of the time , ignoring smaller details and reacting in haste. We have already seen some low prices offers going out of India in the last 2 weeks after news of a good crop started to spread around but we still advice the buyers to be patient and not promote speculations as these speculators will then jump to buy in at the very arrival of new crop and give support to prices as they did last year.Which would eventually mean that prices may not actually fall as much as they should in the start of the season and will fall after these buyers cover themselves putting everyone in a bad position.

I'll keep this report short this time and hope to give in more details and numbers by the month end .

Please feel free to ask anymore questions that you may have.We also look forward to seeing you at our booth in Anuga next month.

WE CORDIALLY INVITE YOU TO VISIT US AT ANUGA,COLOGNE. OCT 10th-14th , HALL 1.1 BOOTH F 039a. INDIA PAVILION.

Kind Regards,

Mukul Gupta
C.E.O/Director
Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd,
4.5 Km Bhopa Road ,Muzaffarnagar , Uttar Pradesh , India , Pin - 251001.
Ph :- 91 131 2990062,2615164 , Fax:- 91 131 2615165 , Mob:- 91 9837084355
Website :- www.shakumbhri.org
Email :- mukul@shakumbhri.org
Email :- mugupta@hotmail.com
Skype :- mukulgupta78

2009-08-07T13:51:00.000+05:30

Latest rainfall map for India, as you can see there is a very uneven rain distribution all over the country and while some would argue that less rains are good for sesame it seems like not just sesame but all other crops will be affected with this unusual rainfall and if less rain are considered as the barometer for a good crop we can safely say goodbye to the Gujrat crop where rainfall is much more than average.

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED JULY 7TH , 2009

2009-07-07T17:44:00.000+05:30

2008 was a rotten year for food prices. Prices climbed so high that very few could eat as well as they might have. 2009 in reverse has been a year of slow but steady consolidation. Prices have dropped but not crashed, food is cheaper again but still not back to the lows seen 2 years ago.

After a very boring season we are finally entering into the exciting time of the year. This is the time when people start throwing in their opinions , numbers for new crop quantity and some even speculative prices for the new season.

Just as we mentioned in our last report the price remains range bound in India with almost a very clear resistance level both on the upside and at the bottom. The volumes have dropped drastically, China and Turkey dont seem to be very active buying but still prices manage to hold firm. The Gujarat Summer crop was said to be 80,000 Mt and considering the daily arrival figures of the past 2 months and current arrival figures it might reach round 65,000-70,000 Mt if not 80,000 Mt. Which is still a very huge quantity for summer crop, but even that did not bring the market down crashing as everyone thought it would.

1:- The Summer crop arrival figures reflect that almost 45-50,000 Mt crop is already out in the market till date.

2:- Out of which we believe about 15,000 was used for the Korean Tender , another 15-20,000 Mt probably for Exports both Natural and Hulled combined.

3:- About 5,000 was consumed domestically.

4:- That means the stocks in our opinion should not be more than 10,000 Mt at most with stockists and Exporters.The Stocks would probably be used up if and when the next Korean Tender is announced or exported elsewhere.U.P/M.P stocks are almost negligible at the moment , I personally would'nt put them more than 1000-2000 Mt and for Rajasthan about 3000-4000 Mt at max.These stocks are spread over so many stockist that they would hardly create a ripple effect in the market even if we start to see some price decline in the coming months.

The current arrivals in Gujarat are down to 100-150 Mt per day and that should continue to serve the day to day requirement of the Hulling factories,domestic consumptions and spot demand for the next 1-2 months.

Now to the interesting part. It finally rained in Delhi/Mumbai this week.

"Delayed monsoons was the big media story only until it didn't rain in Mumbai. Now that it has started raining there, the monsoon story is suddenly over ..... or is it ? We don't grown sesame in Delhi and Mumbai and the news doesn't cover the villages that frantically."Touche :)

Monsoon is late and slow this year and thats a fact.Sesame as we know is a 90 days crop .Traditionally the Gujarat/Maharastra new crop comes out by end of September and other regions i.e U.P/M.P and Rajasthan 2 weeks later i.e by Early October. However this season due the delayed monsoon , Gujarat/Maharastra got their first rains in the last week of june and the sowing started in first week of July and is unlikely to finish before the 3rd week of July and in other regions it has not even commenced fully as yet, at best about 20-23% sowing estimated in some irrigated areas.

This means that the Gujarat new crop is unlikely to come out before first week on October and since Diwali is on 17th Oct this year the farmers traditonally do not get the crop into their market in a frenzy during that week so the arrivals will pick up only around End October. The new crop is unlikely to reach respective destinations before Early November/Mid November and the big question is that do the buyer's have enough stocks to sustain till that long?

All said , we are not very concerned about the 2 weeks delay , that is manageable. The concern is that the rains are still not favorable in most regions. It rained for a few days and the rains are gone again which is definitely not enough for any crop including sesame and the worst is that the Indian Meteorological Department still says that we will have a good monsoon which means that the spread of rains is now concentrated over the next 2 months which is not good news specially for a crop like sesame.

The seeds can do with little rains but if we have a situation like last year when it rained too much at the wrong time we might have a big problem on our hands.The acerage of sesame is bound to go up even this year as the farmers have been getting very good price for their products over the past 3 years and that should be an encouraging fact for them.However last years disaster has prompted a lot of farmers to go in for dual crop , one which requires more water and the other drought resistance to safeguard their interest.

African stocks are heard to be limited as well and should be enough to sustain the Ramadan demand. A few African countries Tanzania, Mozambique will now have new harvest season.China we believe despite their big crop will continue to remain a net importer and Japanese demand which was slow this year due to the very large quantity and long term contracts they entered into last season will expire and they are heard to be running on low inventories as well.

In Ethiopia most inventory is in traders' hand, farmers have a small number of goods. The majority of local traders believe that the total inventory is in 25,000 tons level and some local traders think that the total inventory is 40,000 tons to 45,000 tons. Stocks in Sudan are also not estimated to be very large and with their new crop still 5 months away i.e End Nov/Dec the chances of prices falling there are slim too.

This year high prices in India diverted a lot of quantities and buyers to Africa.Even India is supposed to have imported more than 5000 Mt of African Sesame at lower levels, is this the sigh of things to come. Is India going the china way? We know for a fact now that at high levels demand will suffer from India.

Taking away the demand at higher levels which was evident this season, in the long run will only help sesame because the market will adjust and naturally correct itself. Sesame is a large cash crop in India, we produce about 700,000 Mt annually and export about 30% out of it obviously consuming the rest.Like China the domestic demand is getting bigger and bigger each year along with the exports. And for sesame India is the world’s biggest exporter ,2nd largest producer, 4th largest consumer . Surely, it should learn to stand on its own feet. We have had a large exportable surplus for the last two years because sesame seed production has outpaced our capacity to hull or export.

What will happen if there are less exports? There is every chance local prices will crash due to oversupply, creating misery for farmers. Second, since domestic prices will crash, local crushing mills will have a bonanza. Their raw material would become substantially cheaper with no rival bids from exporters.The cheaper oil then finds its way into the already established edible oil sector for direct or blending purpose. This oversupply problem would, however, only happen for one season. In the next season, farmers will stay away from sesame, they won’t touch a crop for which there are no takers. The oversupply situation would correct itself and once again there would be a balance between demand and supply. The sesame industry will discover it was a phyrric victory.

More broadly, a reduction in India’s crop would reduce the global availability of sesame drastically. Demand for sesame seed internationally would also recover as the world economy gets back on its feet. That would push up world prices, creating an opportunity for Indian exporters once again. In other words, if there is no artificial prop for exports, by 2010 India’s sesame prices would correct itself with new price equilibrium.

The bad news is that 2009 will be tough. There would be plenty of tears, recriminations and guilt. Farmers are planting the 2009 crop on the basis of the fantastic price they got in 2008 from exporters and stockist.They made good sales in the past 2 yrs and are now financially in a better position to bargain a little, they showed that all this season by holding back whenever they thought prices were following.Can they do it again this season?

Its still too early to comment or predict where the prices will be 2-3 months from now.We still hope that India has a good crop, prices reach a balance which is good both
for the consumers and the farmers and we see renewed demand once again.Larger crops mean greater liquidity and depth in the physical as well futures markets, bigger corporate players and more investment in forward and backward linkages. All this to me appears like a definite thumbs up for the commodity markets in India.

Let's say cheers to that and hope that banks actually have the money to lend.

2009-04-27T14:27:00.000+05:30

Gujrat has had the driest March/April and there is almost a drought like situation there.

Korean Tender- April 27th , 2009

2009-04-27T13:25:00.000+05:30

As most of you would already be aware by now that a Korean Tender for Natural Sesame Seed was announced last week on the 24th.

India got 4800 MT in the range $1343 PMT - $1363 PMT. The balance 1200 Mt was awarded to Pakistan.Once again notable absence of African participation. The prices in Africa as still on the higher levels and with limited stocks there are well they do not seem to be in a hurry to sell cheap, specially when they know the fact that any revival of demand from China or the Ramadan demand has to be catered by them as no other origin is in a position to offer huge quantities.

The tender price is very smartly based on the anticipation of a good summer crop in India , as these levels do not match the current prices in the market we doubt that it was a discounted sale of stocks. The new summer crop arrivals should start to trickle in the first week of May and as the arrival pressure pick up we should see some price corrections. However we don't expect a free fall in prices in May as the initial arrival pressure will be eased with the buying for the Korean Tender which needs to sail out by next month end.

Everyone is now talking about a big summer crop , but as we mentioned in our previous reports the stock situation other than the Summer crop is very small. Everyone is waiting and counting on the summer crop and that optimism should act as a potential barrier in free fall of prices.

Moreover African exporters seem to be in no mood of offering a huge discount anytime soon and that could help keep international price level at sustainable levels.

A few more Korean tender will surely be announced before the Indian new crop in September and that means at

conservative levels about 15,000 Mt ( Including the current tender )from the summer crop will be dedicated to the

Korean tender alone.Which leaves us with about 25-30,000 Mt at max for rest of the worlds supply.However with

current demand at historical lows we still do not see any huge buying rush specially in the summer months.

Its been a boring year , just as we anticipated in our report at the start of season in November.There seems no reason that the next 4-5 months will be any different.However the buyers should be careful as ultimately the end users are consuming , if they are not supplying then probably their competition is.

If price is a deterrent in the sesame consumption , then I am hopeful that people will either learn to live with the high levels or the prices will fall in the coming new season in October. If other substitutes have replaced the use of sesame due to low prices will have lower cushion for a fall compared to sesame and that means at lower levels sesame will not just regain it demand but should also take market share of other substitutes just as they have taken its.

Prices of most food commodities, already up by a fifth in past over a month, are bound to climb as the global economy heads for a recovery. Though the prices of most industrial commodities have fallen on year, prices of food commodities like sugar, edible oil,pulses, fruits prices saw a sharper rise, pinching consumers.

What has been interesting this year is that the market has been very range bound , moving 3 steps forward and

then 2 steps back , the same story should continue in the coming months as well. This should bring stability to the prices and with a narrow band to move in the client confidence should resume and we hope to see some cheer back in the market.

Will be very interesting to see the actual size and impact of the summer crop in the coming few weeks.

USD still remains a major price determining factor as we have noticed in the recent past..

MARKET REPORT - APRIL 2nd , 2009

2009-04-02T16:52:00.000+05:30

In continuation to my last report , prices have maintained their lateral movement in the past 2 months since our last reportof end January. Contrary to many people's thought of a market crash we thought that their were certain factors which provided stiff resistance at lower levels.

The prices did go up however do the same factors but the strong USD which traded in the range of about Rs 52.00 = 1USD in comparison to the Oct- Jan average of about Rs 49.00 =1 USD helped make the prices look that much cheaper.The USD in the past 2 weeks has weakened again and is now trading in the range of Rs 50-50.50 =1 USD which again makes the same prices as 2 weeks ago look 3-4 % expensive.

If February a small Korean tender helped move the prices up suddenly even though the bidding prices from India were below everyone's expectation. But once again the absence of competitive prices from Africa which is confirmed to have good big volume crop this year prompted everyone here that there was still scope of absorbing a $100-$200 rise in the international market.

China everyone said will not be buying this year and infact they bought very little since the season started in October,

but as we mentioned in our last report that China may be back for shopping after their major demand period of Chinese New Year got over. The strong buying spree from China in Feb got the prices moving up in Africa as well and after a certain level the demand stopped , clearly showing that the markets this year are very range bound.

Talking to a few of my Chinese colleagues , I learnt that the demand is slow but not down and out in the Sesame Oil business, ofcourse with high prices a certain segment of buyers have switched over but the fact remains that "Nothing is Permanent , not even CHANGE". People switch and then they switch back. A very interesting point as despite this talk of global slowdown and falling commodity prices , the prices of 90% of food items have still not been able to see the lows of late 2007 when this sudden and maddening rise of prices started.

We have all heard of low stocks in India for the last 5 months , low inventory , stocks in the hand of strong stockholders ,stocks at high levels are old topics now. The current buzz word in India nowadays is the Summer crop. I am sure their are all kind of figures already in the market about the size of the summer crop.I've heard estimated ranging from 50,000/Mt to our estimates of about 20,000 MT.

Working of some figures again. Considering that average yield per hectare in Gujarat for Sesame is about 400 Kgs/Hectare that means we need about 2.5 Hectare for 1 Mt of Sesame Seed. For a crop size of 50,000 Mt we would need a total area under cultivation of 2.5 X 50,000 = 125,000 Hectare. This figure looks a little unrealistic as compared to the normal sowing area under production in Gujarat which is about 350,000 Hectare.

Since there have been almost zero rains in Gujarat since Jan 2009 upto March 31st 2009 , some people may argue that summer crop is primarily sown in Irrigated lands with little or no dependence on Rainfall as in the case of normal season crop which is sown in June/July after the first monsoon rains in India.However being situated in a farm area we think we know a little more that people sitting in big cities that such a huge area in India to be cultivated by irrigation is close to impossible and that too for such a high risk and sensitive crop.

In our estimate the crop should be more or less similar in size to previous years with a little sustainable growth pattern and should be the range of 20,000- 25,000 MT. We must also recognize the fact that all of this is not for hulling. This crop will get divided into 3 parts

1:- 99/1 Premium Grade for Natural Export

2:- Hulling Quality

3:- Crushing Grade

Even if we take an average of what other say i.e about 50,000 Mt and our figures of 25,000 Mt , the crop will be around 35,000 Mt.

Lets say the Hulling grade in this is more 50% or about 20,000 Mt . Assuming that only 10 factories(Big small , Auto/Sundry put together ) will run for the next five months from May-September i.e about 150 days.Taking into consideration that the demand is down and there is a major slow down the factories are bound to run at about 60% capacity or lets say they will produce for only 100 days in the next coming 5 months.

10 Factories X 20 Mt Day X 100 Days = 20,000 MT . i.e they will need about 20% more in terms of raw material which means the 10 factories between them will consume about 24,000 Mt.

If less than 10 factories operate out of India , then doesn't that create a situation where the suppliers will have an upper hand in determining the prices and choosing the buyers anyways.If 10 or more factories run even at 60% capacity doesn't that account for this summer crop figure in total.In both cases we see a bottom line resistance being formed.

Where is the spare quantity to pressurize the market to crash? Its not that India needs to finish every last seed before the new crop as a compulsory rule or law.Every year we have carry forward , nothing new if we carry fwd 5-10,000 Mt.

Comparing previous years figures , India generally exports about 80,000 MT in the period April- September , last year i.e April 08- Sep-08 was about 107,000 Mt .Let me know If you need country wise import figures for this period of last 4 years.

Even if this year the April-September figures are down 50 % on low demand , we still would need about 50,000 Mt. We don't see a huge stock situation in India at the moment as even after the price rise in the past month the arrivals did not pick up , some people would say that the stockiest are awaiting for even better prices which may be true in some cases but what is also true is the fact that most stockiest have emptied their warehouse cutting their losses and gearing up for other new crops.After the sudden rise we even saw a 6-7% price correction but even then there was no panic selling by stockiest and no improvement in prices clearly showing that the supply is very very limited.

If all the overseas buyers are running in limited stocks and the demand has been slow over the past 6 months , I think the stockiest in India have been just as smart to realize that fact as well and there is no reason to assume that the stockiest will still hold on to huge stocks and loose their night sleep and money despite getting a chance to exit at breakeven or even at small profits in some cases over the last few weeks.

Some new origins in Africa and Central America will also be coming out with new crop in the coming 2 months but with the strong USD still trading above Rs 50 - 1 USD and at high prices worldwide the import parity and chances of India importing any more raw material is virtually zero. Hulled Sesame from India still remains the cheapest and limited.

Just as we anticipated a Chinese demand after their New year , we anticipate another buying spree from the Middle Eastern Countries and Turkey for their Ramadan demand which falls in August this year much before Indian new crop so all their demand will either be fulfilled by stocks in Africa or Indian Summer crop.

As per our estimates the markets should remain range bound in the next 5-6 months with strong resistance at price of $ 1650 PMT FOB on the lower side and $1850 PMT FOB on the upper side in case of Hulled Sesame. In case of Natural Sesame we see strong resistance at bottom levels of $1400 PMT FOB and $ 1550 PMT FOB.

However the USD still remains a major price determining factor and any downward movement from current highs will only make matters worse.

Sesame Seed Market Report Jan 27th 2009.

2009-01-27T19:57:00.000+05:30

As most people would agree it has indeed been a very strange year for Sesame Seeds.2008 started with extreme bullishness and is strangely ended in the exact opposite note.However the troubled world economy and the weak sentiments has a large contribution to this as well.

Since our last report where we mentioned that there might be resistance at lower levels has proved right.We did touch the season's lowest and have bounced back as well. As we have been pointing since the start of the season the USD is playing a very prominent role this year.In Mid November the Rupee was trading at Rs.48- Rs 48.50 to a USD range , by the end of November/Early Dec it once again peaked to Rs 50.40 levels and continues to remain in the band of Rs 48-48.75 ever since.

From the last Korean Tender India bagged a sizeable quantity despite a huge price differential between the Indian and African prices. This clearly imply that price is not always the factor that determines the buying decisions and India should continue to keep that logistical and delivery advantage in future as well.Although it would be unfair on our part to say this but there is still a lot of insecurity and apprehension among a lot of buyers while buying from Africa due to their past record of defaults and quality.

In terms of Indian prospective even though the quantity was less but it still gave some support to the markets at lower levels and clearly implies the situation here.Although it is absolutely impossible to predict the exact crop quantities in India,Africa and China but since everyone in the trade including farmers, traders and exporters have now come to a conclusion that the total crop in India is at best between 200,000 MT to 210,000 MT.

However this year everyone is talking about Africa more than the Indian price's and rightly so.They have the biggest crop and in eventuality of a demand revival will be the only source which can cater to bulk quantities.The prices started coming out of Africa in November. Nigeria,Ethiopia and Sudan all started to quote really competitive prices and that literally confused the entire sesame trading community including the Indian exporters. At one stage the price difference in India and Africa was almost $400/Mt which prompted some Indian companies to look at the option of Importing the seeds from Africa.This situation however did not persist for long as the strong USD and steady price fall in Indian prices ultimately made the imports un-viable.

However there is confirmed news that India has bought about 5000 MT from Africa most of which was to cover their back to back sales.Turkey and China which last year bought huge quantities from India have done so from Africa this year and that is the reason the African prices have moved in a short band of $50-$100 over the past 3 month.

An interesting situation in India is that the Export is down by almost 50% YoY basis.If the USD and ocean freights were still at last years levels the prices would seem 20-25% i.e well above $2000 FOB PMT for Hulled.Why are the prices not falling then?Lets looks at some statistics here ( These are my assumptions based on conversations with friends in trade)

According to our estimates there are about 10 Big Hulling factories(Direct Exporters and Manufactures) in India having

a daily capacity of about 30 Mt/Day and an equal number of smaller factories which produce about 20 Mt/Day,these include the Sun Dry manufacturers and small manufactures who get cater to the trading community.Then there are about 15-20 factories which are very small and cater primarily to the domestic demand in India and operate for 3-4 months only ( Oct-Jan).

The new crop started to trickle in around the last week of September.That gives us about 120 days since the factories have started and for farm level arrivals in the local factories. My rough estimate would be that the factories operated for about 90 days in the past 4 months. That gives us the following.

Num of Factories X Daily Production X Working days since 1st Oct(New Crop) = Total Production

10 Factories X 30Mt/Day X 90 Production Days= 27,000 Mt ( 95 % Exported)

10 Factories X 20Mt/Day X 90 Production Days= 18,000 Mt ( 50 % Exported)

20 Factories X 10Mt/Day X 90 Production Days= 18,000 Mt (100 % Domestic)

Total = 63,000 Mt

To make 63,000 Mt the factories would have consumed an average 20% more Natural i.e about 75,000 MT.

On conservative estimates I would like to believe that there has been a trade of about 50,000 Mt of Natural as well including the Korean Tender supply, domestic consumption of the White 99/1 Grade and crushing quality seeds for Oil used in domestic market.

This almost tallies with the farm arrival figures in the domestic markets.

Avg Gujrat arrival about 5,000 Bags/Day

Avg Rajasthan arrival 10,000 Bags/Day

Avg U.P/M.P arrival 5000 Bags/Day

All India average arrival (all states and local markets put together ) = 20,000 Bags/Day

20,000 bags X 80 Kg/bag X 90 Days of arrival / 1000 =145,000 Mt Arrivals from farmers till date.

Based on estimates that the total crop is about 200,000 Mt it means we have about 60,000 Mt at max which has to come out from farmers or farm levels stockiest to work with for the next 7 months.

I'll assume that the summer crop which comes out in April/May in Gujrat will be about 20,000 Mt but their sowing will

depend on how the prices of Sesame seed are viz a viz Cotton and Groundnut.I think with groundnut that is relatively less Export dependent should also factor in the farmers choice of sowing.

Just as it is an open secret now that most Importers have long term open contracts and very rightly so since they assume that the markets will slide further but they will surely need to cover those at some point, however I would also like to believe that the stocking in India was relatively lesser than last year for 3 reasons

a:-) Prices did not fall to a certain level as anticipated which held back the stockiest

b:-) Farmers got in the merchandise in smaller lots

c:-) Financial crunch

To everyone's surprise the prices in Africa started going up at the same time when prices were falling in India.Other smaller origins such as Uganda,Senegal, Burkina Faso , Mali and Pakistan all have normal crops and their farmers like everywhere else feel a little cheated and are not ready to sell their cargo at low prices.As a trading community we all should understand that sesame is a low yield crop which fetches the farmer less than $400/Hectare ( Avg 400 Kg yield) in normal circumstances , this year it seems at no destination the farmers are willing to sell their cargo below the $1000/Mt benchmark levels.For them ofcourse this is still almost half of the levels they saw last year but

still a fair price for a commodity like sesame and that is the reason the farmers are reluctant to sell at anything lower.

In India the balance of trade remains very sensitively placed.I know that in the past the trading community has many times claimed that we might run out of crop at some stage which ofcourse never happened.This year too I doubt a situation like that is likely , not because we have enough but because the demand is down. Last year as well India barely had enough to cover the demand and the carry over stocks were limited and those too were left as the prices and demand fell at the end. We have time and again visited the farmers , traders and stockiest. The stocks are very limited and everyone by the end of Jan will probably get into a hand to mouth scene here as well. Any sudden demand therefore is likely to create pressure in the market , maybe that will not help in shooting the prices up but will surely be helpful in sustaining a specific price levels. The bullrun of USD against all currencies seems to be over and any fall in the USD against the Rupee will only strengthen the prices here in the long run.

Korea is estimated to still buy about 40,000 MT in the next 8 months on conservative consumption estimated.A portion of this is most likely to be supplied by India and even if this quantity goes to Africa it is more likely to support their price levels there and keep International prices within the current bandwidth.I have heard from my friends and colleagues in Africa that the arrival pressure is not picking up in Africa either. Sudan crop is being consumed quick and fast by Egypt and neighboring countries and is almost as expensive as India.Central American crop is not heard of to be any bigger than last year and with very high prices compared to Africa and India their crop is unlikely to create any sort of pressure in the International market this year. Turkey has still not entered the market but are likely to step in sometime soon as their domestic stocks deplete.China should be back in the market after they do the bulk of their consumption during their New Year Holidays.

If only 10% of Chinese population i.e about 130 Million people each buy/consume just one bottle of 400 ml Sesame seed oil ( 1 Kg Sesame gives about 400 ml Oil ) during these 15 days holidays, how much sesame is consumed?You do the math's :-)

Also not to forget the every Chinese family would make or purchase sesame seed balls of "jin dui" during these days because as per tradition their round shape and golden color it denotes "Luck". I read about this at

http://dessertfirst.typepad.com/dessert_first/2007/02/chinese_year_of.html

Once again in no way are we trying to say that the market could sky rocket but our belief is that it may not crash either contrary to some market sentiments.I would still refrain from jumping in the market suddenly as that could spike up the prices to unsustainable levels which may not hold for long , but would advice slow and steady buying and refrain from speculations and open positions.

Sesame Seed Market Report 12th November 2008

2008-11-12T18:02:00.000+05:30

First we would like to thank all the esteemed friends and guest whom we had the pleaure of meeting at SIAL , Paris.It was our pleasure and honor to have met you there and a great learning experience for us.

Markets as we expected and mentioned in our previous Market Report started going down after the intital covering pressure eased off and the arrivals picked up after diwali.News of a good African crop is spreading around and this time the Africans have priced themselves very competitively.

The markets in India have falled almost 12% in the past 2 weeks however a portion of this fall was negated by the corresponding fall in the USD against the Indian Rupee which had touched an all time peak of 1 USD = Rs 50.15 in the last week of Oct. The Rupee is currently trading in the range of Rs 48- Rs 48.75 to a USD. Hence a 5-6% of the fall was negated by the Ruppee- USD fluctuation.

In real terms the prices have fallen back to almost the lowest levels they touched this season. The arrivals which picked up after Diwali Holidays have once again dwindled back to same or even lower levels in certain regions. We see some resistance at current levels as the domestic consuption in India picks up pace as the winter starts to set in. With 100% of the crop now harvested ,talking to the farmers and taking into account the average arrivals over the past 30 days from various local markets ,we can assume that the total crop in India should be around 220,000 Mt -240,000 Mt this year.,which falls roughly in the range we assumed last month.Last year the total crop in India was estimated to be about 380,000 Mt.So we are clearly
short by about 150,000 Mt , in addition to the problem of poor quality.

The quality remains a major problem this year, with almost all destinations having major rain damaged seeds.This is creating a big confusion in the market, the price variation between the lowest and the highest quality is almost 12% in the domestic market. The lowest being sold as Hulling ( This is actually the crushing grade, which is rain damaged ) and the highest ofcourse the 99/1 grade.Thea ration of Hulling Grade and 99/1 Grade arrival in the market is 90:10 this
year where it traditionally is about 60:40.The lower grade although looking very attactive in terms of pricing is giving much less yield and more and more sorting rejections which is taking the costs up. In the factory its hard to factor in these cost immediately but we believe sooner or later everyone in the trade will realize this and we should see some benchmark levels being formed. Due to this huge variation in the domestic pricing we see the same for the export
market as well , where our friends and clients have told us that the price band in Hulled Sesamebeing offered from India is almost $100 at the moment.

In a way we did want the prices to come down to sustainable levels to see the demand coming back to India but taking into consideration the current financial crisis we have our doubts that the buying pressure would resume anytime soon, the volumes are certain to drop this year but that could also mean slow but sustained buying all year round this time.Liquidity pressure and global turmoil are bound to affect the sentiments worldwide.

The arrival pressure has fizzed out from India, no doubt that the farmers are stocking marterial anticipating a price hike and usually the farmers dont panic that easy to pump all their cargo in the market if the prices fall. They might hold on to their stocks for good 5-6 months and continue to get limited amount in the market as and when they are in need of some money. African crop is out as well with shipments already taking place from Nigeria.Nigerian quality which traditionally goes to Japan for crushing is being tried by the middle eastern countries for the reason of cheaper pricing. Ethiopia and Sudan are just slightly cheaper than India. With the information we have from Africa , we dont see their prices falling too much as they clearly know that India is not their price competitior anymore
this year.

We now have to wait and see how much more the prices have to fall before the demand resumes and brings stablity to the market. Overall a 5% fall from here would get us below the lowest levels of this new crop and that would mean that technically all the stockists will start to loose money assuming that they all bought at the lowest levels.I am sure there will be some resistance at those levels and keeping aside the few volatile ups and lows that we may have a very "Boring" stable levels all year round. Just as last year the prices could not have just kept going up the same holds true for prices going down too much.Once again its really really difficult to judge the bottom this year and as we always emphasize its exteremly important to have a good average and little but consistant business this year to sustain oneself.India we believe still remains in a strong position as far as Hulled Sesame is concerned and although we have heard about some quantities being served from Africa and Middle east they are of limited quantity and accessible to a limited few.

We fear that a lot of companies might close their Sesame operations this year , we already have news about a few companies trying to finish their existing orders and stocks and step away from the market.Actually its not the sesame that is selling this season, "Only relations are selling". Friends and clients are back to the most trusted suppliers , and with slow down in demand they see no reason to go fishing around and risking huge amount of their money on someone unknow. I think that will and should be the trend this season as business will be done mostly on back to back or hand to mouth basis.

It has been a year or uncertainity , we started the year 2008 with extreme bullishness and by the end of it everyone seems to be bearish. Sometimes I get the feeling that in India the sesame prices are somehow magically linked to the stock markets.

Sesame Seed Market Report 14th October 2008

2008-10-14T18:52:00.000+05:30

As most of you must have been already updated by your respective suppliers about the Trade meeting that was held on 11th and 12th Oct in India.

Most of the eminent trade related people attended the conference which included the Exporters, Brokers and Local Suppliers . Everyone put forward their views about the crop size and quality. Our trade association also sent out survey teams to all Sesame producing states to give us all a first hand idea about the situation there.

As per our previous market report we estimated the crop size as follows

Origin Estimates Aug (Mts) Estimates in Sept (Mts)
U.P/MP 110,000 100,000
Rajasthan 110,000 100,000
Gujrat 70,000 70,000
Others 10,000 10,000
300,000 280,000

However at the trade the survey teams findings were as follows

Origin Estimates (Mts)

U.P/MP 85,000
Rajasthan 110,000

Gujrat 60,000
Others 10,000

265,000 Mt

However the traders and brokers from Rajasthan put forward their view that due to some late rains in Rajasthan at the time of harvesting there have been some damages and they estimate the quantity to be around 80,000 MT.Even the estimates in U.P and M.P were argued to be lower but not very significantly.

This gives us a range from 235,00 Mt to 265,000 Mt for the Indian crop.Everyone agrees that China has a better crop than last year and may not necessarily buy from India , unless the prices fall significantly here and even the African Crop looks very promising up and is estimated to be up by about 10% from last year.

All the crop is however delayed by 2-3 weeks in India due to the heavy rains at the time of harvesting and that means the arrival pressure is not building up at any destination.We also believe that although not many people have sold big quantities forward this year as buyers were reluctant to cover as well so early on , we have to take into prospective the collective sale that has happened over the last few weeks in anticipation of price fall by the Indian Exporters.The untimely Korean Tender's , last 2 of which combine to be a quantity of about 10,000 Mt is mostly open contracted and is yet to be covered along with numerous smaller contracts that our export fraternity has also sold without covering.

The arrivals that picked up in Gujarat and Rajasthan have been broadly stagnant and since in India we have Diwali holidays from 22nd Oct to 29th Oct there is a big rush to cover at all levels by exporters who need to fulfill their Oct-Early November shipments. The situation has been worsened by the rain damaged seeds which are estimated to be around 20-25% of the total crop this year.This quantity is totally unsuitable for exports and will get absorbed in the domestic oil crushing market in India.

Everyone at the meet also agreed that the demand will go down significantly this year due to the high prices and global financial turmoil which we believe is true as well.However with Indian export's touching 320,000 Mt figures last year even a drop 30% of global demand (Including Chinese demand which was about 60,000 Mt ) last year we still need to have about 200,000 Mt to export which is again the back to back situation we faced last year.

This should keep the prices firm atleast till African harvest starts in Nov End/December.The prices impact in the last few days may have surprised the buyers as the domestic prices have not really appreciates by that much as the FOB and CNF prices that the buyers may see reflecting on their respective current offers now as compared to 1-2 weeks ago. The problem here is that most sellers were offering prices in anticipation that the prices will fall , many not necessarily speculating but taking a calculated risk by estimating that prices may soften by 2-3 % as the arrivals pick up , however with that scenario gone now they now have to factor in not just the 2-3 % calculated risk but also the 4-5% price rise in the domestic market and the 2-3% fall in the USD. So suddenly the prices are 9-10% expensive although the price rise in Domestic market in India is only 4-5%.

As we assumed in our previous reports the fluctuation again this year should be in quantum's depending more on the USD and the market sentiments rather than actual prices as and when they are at a particular point of time. Also if by any "Bad Luck" the domestic demand of sesame seed in India which is traditionally very strong during the months of Nov end till Mid Jan remains strong as previous years we can easily see a consumption of about 50,000 Mt in the India which can further put pressure in the market.

Despite all the above we do not expect or want the prices to go up , we would rather see prices of sesame at a sustainable level with good volumes rather than very high prices and a major slow down in demand for the coming season as that can hurt any trade in the long term.Other destinations can easily substitute the Indian suppliers as far as Natural sesame is concerned but we still believe that India is still in a very strong position as far as Hulled Sesame seed is concerned. Last year we saw emergence of certain new destination for Hulled but those were mostly because of the crazy price escalation which gave them a window to match or even sell at lower prices than India at certain point of time as they managed to cover the raw material early on low prices.However that may not be the case this year as prices have started on a high and strengthened from those levels without touching the bottom.

This sudden price rise has caught most of the exporters and importers by surprise as everyone expected the prices to fall atleast for a short period which did not happen, everyone hopes here that once the covering buying is over for the Korean tender and short covering we may see prices slide again after Diwali i.e End Oct/Early Nov which should them open a window to cover again.We see another opening around End Jan after the African Crop and slowdown in Indian domestic demand.

Once again we emphasize that it would be very difficult to judge the bottom this year and most trade will have to be done based on a better average.

SIAL , PARIS 2008

2008-09-27T18:27:00.000+05:30

We cordially invite you to visit our Stand in SIAL ,Paris 19th-23rd Oct at the India Pavilion , Hall 4.

It will be our honor and pleasure to have your presence at our stall.

We look forward to seeing you in Paris.

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED SEPTEMBER 17TH , 2008

2008-09-17T16:38:00.000+05:30

If we could explain in one word the current situation about Sesame Seed in India, the word would be " NERVOUS". Its been very strange last few months, a lot of people were bearish till two month ago , the same people turned bullish after the news of bad crop in U.P and M.P and the same people are bearish again as the news of a good crop in China started to spread around.

It seems like the very same reasons that took the markets to dizzy heights last year are holding it back this year around. If you refer to our market report of September 2007 ( Refer to http://sesameseedmarket.blogspot.com/ for old reports) you will notice that our main concern's then were the Shortfall in Chinese Crop and the falling USD against Indian currency which made the exports actually look more expensive than they actually were.

This year its again the same factors but totally reversed , China is said to have a better crop than last year which means that instead of "compulsive" buying which it had to do last time it can wait for the best opportunities and the cheapest destinations. The USD has appreciated by about 10% in the last 2 months and have made the prices look cheaper than they actually are in comparison to the local prices here in India which remain more or less constant with no major fall in the past 3-4 weeks. Of course we still expect that prices can go down further as and when the new crop arrivals start in full swing.

Its actually nice to see that the buyers have not panicky yet and have waited and covered only as per their requirements which has created stability in the market and a few traders and brokers have already started to get nervous and offering throw away price. However I think with all the bitter experiences of last year the buyers will be much better judges of character and service this year round.

After the high's of last year and the prices down by almost 50% compared to those high levels,
it is an open secret that current levels are very very attractive to the Importers despite the global slowdown in all Oil seeds but the fact remains is that just like the prices could not have kept going north it cannot just keep falling as well. I wish it was possible to judge the bottom but like last year we once again believe it is better to have the best lowest average price rather than knowing or missing
the lowest price.

The crop situation in India remains almost same as till 3-4 weeks ago, it has been raining heavily in Rajasthan and Gujrat in the past week and that is some concern again.Its not possible to judge the damage at such and early stage but we hope all keeps well. U.P and M.P are confirm to have not more than 50% of their total of last year and that should keep the stockists and speculators busy.Once again we think the up's and down's will be in quantum from now on as with the changing trends the degree of price variation is no more in small proportions but in 2-3 or more percentage points on daily/weekly basis.

The sowing in Africa is supposed to have started and we should get some news by next month about their sowing pattern's and estimates.The crop damage in Myanmar (Burma) is also confirmed and that should have some affect on china as a lot of that cargo goes to China through unofficial trade channels. The real impact of that will be known around End Oct/Early Nov when the real Chinese demand starts to build up in preparation for their New Year in January.

Our Initial Estimates for the India crop size is as follows

Origin Estimates Aug (Mts) Estimates in Sept (Mts)
U.P/MP 110,000 100,000
Rajasthan 110,000 100,000
Gujrat 70,000 70,000
Others 10,000 10,000
300,000 280,000

We also take the opportunity of inviting you to visit our Stall at SIAL , Paris from Oct -19th-23rd this year at the India Pavilion.It would be our pleasure and honor to meet you there.

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED AUGUST 25TH , 2008

2008-08-25T14:46:00.000+05:30

As we all have already experienced, it has been a crazy year for Sesame and probably for all

other commodities as well. The speculators loved every bit of it as they moved the markets up

to dizzy heights and then let it fall at will.

Sesame prices touched unthinkable highs of around $3500 PMT for Hulled and almost $3000 for Natural.When the prices were rising everyone thought they would continue to go up but demand slowed down and we saw a huge correction in the prices since.It was sad to notice big defaults from suppliers in the start of the season and then surprisingly when the prices fell it was the buyers who started defaulting and that created a further panic in the market and prices stagnated.

Another major factor which contributed to the price fall was the Rumor of ban on Oilseeds by the Indian Govt , they

infact did ban the Export of Edible oils but thankfully left the Oilseeds out of the ban preview. With a lot of commodities already banned now it is unlikely that they will ban the Oilseeds in the coming months as Oct-Dec is harvest time formost of India's Oilseed products.

The USD is still playing hide and seek and after falling by as much 13-14% in the Oct 2007- March 2008 period it has

once again risen by about 8-9% in the last few months and we hope it will continue to trade in this region making the

export competitive , but then again it is impossible to judge its movement.

We saw a very very quite buying period in the last few months as a lot of buyer were sadly stuck with high priced cargo and with low demand at high levels the sales obviously went down .Sesame as we all know is not a necessary

ingredient for most and with high prices of each and every commodity worldwide there was bound to be some slack in

demand. However what I noticed in my 3 week trip to Europe and US talking to clients and end users that atleast for the bakery industry the fancy toppings are becoming a must for survival as the consumers are demanding something "extra" for the high prices.However Big consumers such as McDonald's have been rumored to have approved lesser seeds on their buns.Another big market has emerged meanwhile in terms on Tahini for direct consumption and as an important ingredient in Hummus which is growing rather rapidly globally. The Sesame oil consumption continues to grow despite high prices in places like China and other South East Asian countries.

The big question in everyone's mind at the moment is the new crop in India and China. The Chinese crop as always remains a big mystery for everyone , however the initial report from various sources point at a satisfactory crop this year with no major crop damages.However certain people also did mention that a lot of sesame area was converted into Soya on Govt instructions as they aim to be self reliant on Soya which is their basic food ingredient by 2015. Overall the estimate is that China will have a satisfactory but surely not enough to fulfill their entire demand and they may end up importing their shortfall and may not buy as aggressively from India due to the 10% duty wavier that they get when importing from African nations.

The data that we have at the moment shows that India exported about 270,000 Mt from 1st April 2007-1st Aug 2008 which is up about 80,000 from previous years and almost corresponds to the crop estimate that gave in Dec 2008.The growth was mainly due the excess import of about 40,000 Mt than usual from China , about 10,000 Mt by Korea and about 10,000 by Turkey and ofcourse other nations imported a bit extra as well like the USA , Syria , Malaysia , Taiwan etc.

Origin	Initial estimates 2007 Crop in Sept	First revision in Nov 2007 (Mt)	Second revision in Dec 2007 (Mt)	Initial estimates 2008 Crop in Aug (Mt)
MP/UP	250,000	180,000	150,000	110,000
Rajasthan	100,000	90,000	75,000	110,000
Gujarat	50,000	40,000	35,000	70,000
Others	20,000	15,000	10,000	10,000
Total	420,000	325,000	270,000	300,000

Initial estimates 2008 Crop in Aug (Mt)

110,000

70,000

10,000

300,000

The above is just our initial estimates and these can ofcourse change depending on the weather in the coming months till actual harvesting is done. The carry over stocks in India are almost negligible at the moment and as not much buying was done from overseas we believe that the stocks in various destinations are also not big as probably everyone at this moment wants to get rid of their stocks before the new crop cargo starts arriving at the destinations.

We believe that the new crop should be ready for shipments around End Sept/Early Oct but the crop will arrive

in full swing by Mid/End of October.

Now to the prices.In usual practice the new crop prices should be at a discount of about 15-20% from the closing

levels of Old crop in September , but the market dynamics have changed vastly over the past few years.All will

depend on how aggressive or watchful the buyers are at the start of the season.It will be hard to judge the bottom

this year as the stockiest and defaulters made big money this year and with little or no shipments in the July-September period most of their cash flow will be open.Liquidity play's a very important factor in India as their is virtually no credit at local buying level here and all business is on spot payment.

No news of any Korean tender for the moment but we believe there should be one next month and then again in October.

A lot of buyers and suppliers have had bitter experience this year and we hope that the Buyer's will finally recognize

the integrity and good work done by some of the reputed exporters and will support them in order to clean up the

trade and make life easier for all of us.

We have the rainfall data and monsoon maps and data with us and if you wish to see please feel free to ask us

for the same.If you need any other information , please feel free to contact us.

We also take the opportunity of inviting you to visit our Stall at SIAL , Paris from Oct -19th-23rd this year at the

India Pavilion.It would be our pleasure and honor to meet you there.

MARKET REPORT MAY 2008

2008-05-19T20:46:00.000+05:30

As you must already be knowing that the last Korean Tender of 5500 Mt was awarded to India. Once again it was at a discounted price in the range 2025-2060 PMT , however the USD has suddenly appreciated by about 3% here in India and that means technically speaking the levels are about $2100.

As expected that most bidder's for this tender were clearing out stocks so not much buying pressure has been witnessed in the market after that. However what it has done is cleared off all the "Pressure" stocks from the market. The last few months have been very quite , prices despite very low demand has managed to sustain bottom line levels and as everyone thought that there is large scale stocking at farmer or stockiest level , none of that has turned out true. The main fear that the exporters had was the Ban on exports and since most of our exporting community have
forward contract's of 1-2 months in average it looked like a very huge stock at that moment. Thankfully the Govt of India did not ban the exports and most stocks were cleared off ,although it took many drastic steps to control the prices by reducing import duties to Zero and implementing stock limits for traders,manufacturer's and exporters despite that we did not see a free fall in prices clearly indicating that stocks are indeed limited.

We are now in a situation where any return on demand is most likely to push the markets back up.Almost 70% of smaller Hulling factories have finished their stocks and have taken a pre-mature shutdown and will now resume only with the new crop. Few that are operating will continue to run at back to back contract and will not go long anymore this season. The Gujarat
summer crop that was eagerly awaited has finally arrived , we had various assumptions from people who indicated the crop to be as big as 30-40,000 Mt and as low as 20,000 Mt .In the one week of arrivals the average arrival in Gujarat is 500 Bags/Day. Even if we assume the crop to be 20,000 Mt , it roughly means about 250,000 Bags (80 Kg each) .If we do the math's that means to touch that volume we need to have an average of 10,000 bags per day for the next one month.
Our data tells us that its highly unlikely as even the main crop did not touch those levels this year.Also it is unlikely that the farmers are holding back crop as the levels are still very high and they are making more than double of last yr levels.

Sowing will commence is Early/Mid July and the new crop if all goes well arrives in Sept End/Early October.Everyone here talks of a big crop this time as the prices were high , but the fact is with all commodities gone up the farmers have so many to choose from and its too early to predict anything.However the farmers will be back to purchase farm seeds in June and our assumption is that they would need about 3-4000 Mt from the market(1% of total output) for resowing and that should clean up the market even further.

It is understandable that with high prices the demand has gone down but it still looks unlikely that the buyer's have enough to last them for next 5 months when the new crop arrives.China has been very quite and consuming its own stocks.Africa has been steady all this while but with low demand we have seen some panic selling lately.Lot of defaults heard of in Turkish market after they booked at high levels and the prices came down.The same for other markets as well. It is rather surprising as there were very little defaults from India this year despite the high levels.

We still believe that the demand will resume and we will see some prices corrections as that and the Govt of India are the only 2 factors holding the prices down .Central America and other destinations continue to trade sideways and the same with Indian prices if you leave out the discounted prices being offered by traders and exporters who are exiting the market for this season at the moment.

As we all know that there have been 2 major incidence in Myanmar and China this month where reportedly over 100,000 people have been killed and millions have been affected. We hope and pray that god gives peace to the souls of the departed and strength and courage to the one's who survived this cruel act of mother nature.

KOSHER CERTIFIED HULLED SESAME SEED

2008-04-03T19:57:00.000+05:30

Its our pleasure and honor to announce that our factory "Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd" is now Kosher certified. Please feel free to contact us if you need Kosher certified Hulled or Natural Sesame Seed.

KOREA TENDER APRIL 2nd

2008-04-02T12:32:00.000+05:30

India once again got a major chunk of the 4000 Mt Korean Tender which was announced today.As expected there was profit booking due to the uncertainty in the Govt of India's export policy and fear of ban on exports due to the rising inflation concern. The prices were hugely discounted by the Indian bidder's to get rid of their positions.

KOREA TENDER NEWS- SESAME SEEDS

INDIA – 300Mt at $2278 ,INDIA -300Mt at $2288 ,INDIA-500Mt at $2347 ,INDIA-300Mt at $2349,INDIA-1600mt at $2387,INDIA-500Mt at $2388,PAK-300Mt at $2385,PAK- 200Mt at $2389.

The African's were notably missing again showing the bottom line strength their stockiest and exporters are showing,also Chinese exporters which were seen enthusiastic during the last Korean tender were seen missing from action at these levels , indicating that their prices are still higher than India's at the moment.

The Govt of India announced some drastic steps to control price rises of food commodities in India , notably the reduction of duty to 0% on Edible oil imports , this could mean the edible oil seed industry can breath a sigh of relief for a little while as the govt will first try to acknowledge the impact of duty reduction , ofcourse with all International Oil prices on a high it might not have the impact that they foresee. They also imposed a ban on Non-basmati rice and that sends out a strong signal to the exporting community to curtail prices.Strict stocking quota will also be imposed to curtail hording which is leading to price rise. All these measures have given negative signals and we are already seeing reluctance from most exporters to enter into long terms contracts.

Its been a very quite last 2 weeks as usually happens in end March to Mid April but we are fast getting to a situation where all exporters are eager to ship out existing contracts first and clear their warehouses before getting into new contracts.We might see more back to back limited prompt shipments after April.We also believe that most people will have hurried their contracts and with god's help if there is no ban for this month will have cleared about 75% of their stocks. No one wants to step in the uncertain market at the moment and that would mean almost 70-80% of the hulling factories will take a shut down in or by end of May as the conversions have also eroded and demand slowed down.The brave few in the market will definitely pounce of that advantage and jack up the prices if and when the demand resumes.

As we discussed in our past reports that prices in the market are vastly varied and dependent on who has stocks at what levels and at what levels are they willing to clear those stocks out and that is the reason the buyers are probably seeing vastly different quotations from their various suppliers, this is also now evident from the Korean tender where the prices are actually lower than the current market prices.We believe if you are looking for a bargain April could be a very good month but buyers should be prepared to collect the cargo on prompt basis and stock the same at their warehouses rather than looking for long term contract which will carry a lot of risk for both suppliers and the buyers in the coming months.

We still believe that International market is bullish , its been 6 months since the supplies started , Chinese and Indian low level prices have been shipped and probably consumed by now , the African and Central American crops started late and that means their stocking happened at much higher levels and they would definitely like to make a profit of their stocks and will try to keep the prices high for as long as possible.Most buyers are now sitting on mid levels stocks and some high levels prices too as the business done on high levels was limited , that means that if prices fall more from current levels most buyers will stand to loose a lot of anticipated profit which is not a good sigh for trade. We are in a correction stage at the moment , April has always been a dull month for Sesame however with the "Lantern Festival" in China , the Olympics demand and ofcourse the much anticipated Ramadan buying could renew the demand and help take the prices back up. We have already touched the highs and there is no reason to believe that those levels will not be touched or breached once again. We saw huge panic and concern the buyers showed during the bull run clearly showing the demand undercurrent that remains.

Brief Sesame Seed Market Report March 2008

2008-03-29T11:20:00.000+05:30

We had the pleasure of attending the "2008 China Conference on Sesame & Sesame Products (CCSSP)" which

was held in Beijing , China last week. The meeting was attended by many prominent speakers and traders from world over.

There were detailed discussions and presentation on various crops and stocks from India, China and African origin and the changing trends in world market.I would like to summarize the observations that I was able to make there , the below are my own interpretations on the points that were discussed there and may vary from other eminent people who were attending.

1:- The World stocks which include the stocks at Chinese ports , new crop arrivals in South America , Africa along with the stocks in China ,India and the estimated holding stocks with buyers do not seem to exceed the total volume of 215,000 -225,000 MT's.

2:- Many destinations in Africa including Ethiopia are almost over with their stocks and the little that are left there are in very strong hands and will not move out in low levels and the stockiest are not in a hurry to sell at the moment.

3:- The world demand estimated on import data's from past few years reflect that the total average demand should be in the range of 290,000-300,000 Mt for the coming 5 months before any other major crops comes out, this is including the traditional high period demand in the coming months for Ramadan but not including the occasional demand that may arise due to Beijing Olympics this year or the annual growth of about 4% in demand which has been recorded over the past few years. About 500,000 tourist from abroad and 6 Million visitor from within China are expected to arrive in Beijing over a period of 20 Days during the Olympics.

4:- The total shortfall in the world trade this year could be around 80-90,000 MT.

There seems to a large changing trends that has been observed in the world market over past few years , even with high prices it has been noticed that Sesame used in Tahini/Halva in the middle eastern countries has become a energy food for the poor there which is unlikely to be replaced with any other commodity in the near future.Although it is hard to sell with the high prices but it still remains a very important food ingredient there for the poor. The same goes for Chinese food habits where Sesame Oil despite high prices remains an integral and irreplaceable part of their staple diet.

We observed that there is also a new market that is developing with high prices of Sesame seeds where it is finding its way in the food chain along with various nuts as a high priced food garnish in gourmet food across restaurants. Talking to various people we learned that with high prices it is getting difficult for the end users to justify the price of simple dishes but with little garnish of sesame or nuts they can present their menu better and get better price realization. Like we say in India " Food is first for the eyes and then for the Tongue".

Prices in India remain firm , for the first time in 5 months we saw a correction in the mid of Feb after a Ban on export Edible Oil was imposed by the Govt of India , there was a big rumor that the next logical step if the prices in domestic prices do not stabilize would be banning of Export of Edible Seeds which would also include Sesame. That would certainly mean that prices in global markets would jump to unimaginable levels .

Corrections as we expected were inevitable but surprisingly have come not due to lack in demand but due to the Ban scare.

The ban is still a possibly so we suggest that buyer take precaution and call for their cargo as soon as possible and stock in their warehouses in case of any eventuality.Rising food prices are a concern of the Govt's worldwide and a similar concern was presented by the Myanmar contingent as well and they are also facing a possibility of an Export ban this year. Myanmar have had Sesame Seed export prohibitions earlier as well so a new ban cannot be ruled out ,in which case their exports which mainly goes to China will have to be supplemented from other destinations creating additional pressure in the market.

It was also noticed that Europe seems to be the only destination where the concentration of Sesame Imports is on Hulled Sesame more than Natural grade, the Hulled Sesame unlike Natural has production restrictions and at present India seems to have captured about 60-65% of the world's , the other major destinations supplying Hulled Sesame are mostly catering to a very different market.Hence it seems that there cannot be a huge stock of Hulled anywhere

with any buyer's in the world, certainly not to the extent that it could last them for 5-6 months before new supplies start. Ofcourse if someone decides to drop their sales volume over this period it's a different story but with regular sales the stocks are definitely not enough and that is the reason we have seen slow but steady buying even at higher levels.Most buyers have held back their buying but we hope and expect the demand to resume anytime soon.

Koreans picked up 1200 MT Crushing Quality Sesame from India and 300 MT from China at $2400 /PMT levels and another Korean tender for about 4000 MT is expected to be announced soon.We could see some profit booking in these but that would only mean more buying at local levels keeping the supplies tight.Markets in India have been quite over the last few weeks mainly due to the Ban scare and also due to the liquidity problem in the market,with end of Financial year in India on 31st March the cash flow problems multiply even more.

Overall as we expected right from the start of the season the market is still bullish and as we expected the jumps have been quantum in nature this year.We expect the trend to continue , its getting to a stage where selling at market price will become difficult only if one can make an average of all his buying the prices can be matched, that is the reason the buyers must have noticed the huge price differential in the market at the moment.We expect another quantum jump anytime the cash problem is solved and as time goes the scare of Ban will also subside which will renew the stockiest confidence.

2008-02-06T18:40:00.000+05:30

Sesame Seed Market Report 5th Feb,2008

Dear Sir/Madam,

As we are all already aware its been a roller coaster ride in the Sesame Seed market this year. Infact not just the sesame seeds but primarily all oil seeds and commodities are trading at their all time peaks.

Its a known fact now that the global output is way way short than expected while the demand remains strong and steady.We saw a slight correction in the prices after the 2800 Mt Korean Tender last month and after 3 cancellation the Koreans only managed a discount on about 50$ from the opening price and in the process Pakistan and African bids were taken back , giving strong indications that they are not sellers at low levels.

Africa notably Sudan and Ethiopia made huge supplies earlier to China and seem to be in no mood of selling in a hurry.We should also keep in mind that since Africa entered the market at a stage when global prices were already very high their stocking is also of a very high average price and in a panic market as this year they would well want to make big profits on those levels so any big correction there could be ruled out.

It is estimated that good Quality Natural Sesame from Africa are being traded at around $1900-$2000 levels.If we go by past experience the peak demand for African crop is yet to arrive which is before the month long Holy Ramadan which starts on 1st September this year well ahead of any new crop arrival from any origin. The demand for this should pick up around July/August. We wonder what the situation will be like then and fear that the importers might resolve to buying earlier than expected in anticipation of making profits in case there is situation of short supply.Unlike US and Europe where the demand will take a hit owing to high prices as Sesame might not be a necessary condiment in the Middle East and Indonesian demand is likely to be strong and steady for the period as eating Tahini/Halva and various other Sesame based products is almost ritualistic.

Scaringly enough the much awaited Beijing Olympics are in August as well and if the Chinese preparations and their disastrous crop is to be kept in mind we see no reason why they should not be back to buy huge loads around mid year as well. The Chinese demand is sluggish at the moment as they go for their long New Year Celebrations.With very cold winter that they are facing this year , chances are that consumption of Sesame Oil will go up as reported to us by a few of our clients there. The stocks in China remain limited and could well serve them for a few more months after which they are likely to be back in the market to cover more.We believe that the Chinese aggressive buying and quick decision policy has always given them good returns as this year and 4 years before as well when they had a crop shortage.Unlike most they seem to acknowledge and know the fact that their crop is barely enough to cover their needs and any shortfall has to be supplemented from elsewhere and this is the reason they were the first to buy from India and Africa early on at very attractive levels whereas the rest of the world waited and waited for corrections.This is the reason we believe if they are back to buy they WILL buy at all levels and probably clean up the stocks this time.

Zero stocks are nothing new these days , we have seen that happen in Africa last year where they finished every last tonne by Oct and India barely had anything last year to carry forward ,we could be facing the same in Guatemala and other Central American Countries this year. The Japanese are heard to be buying aggressively from Central America and even making advance contracts specially in countries like Bolivia and Paraguay. Bolivia and Paraguay are also reported to have a smaller crop as compared to last year.

Prices for Guatemala hulled are heard to be around $3500 FOB and the supply remains limited.They traditionally cater to a very large segment in North America and though the top end companies with money power may well be able to absorb the high prices a small segment from that market is bound to be diverted to the so called " Common" Indian Hulled Sesame creating additional demand.

The stocks in India remain limited , the fresh arrivals are virtually over and all the cargo is coming out from the stockiest. Prices have almost doubled from the season start so most stockiest have sold 50% of their stocks and recovered their principle amount. They are now sitting entirely on their profits and only the ones who like to maintain their cash flow are selling. This means that unlike previous years all stocks this year are in hands of strong stockiest. The domestic demand which goes down by Mid Jan has picked up vigorously in the past 2 weeks after a cold wave in the entire North India which the main consumer of the winter time sesame demand. The temp are at 50 year peak and touching 0 degree in some places which is quite uncommon in India at this time of the year.

There is a huge cash flow problem due to this sudden rise and this is the reason why we are seeing sudden burst in prices and then a calm period when people buy.Many stockiest have already sold out and encashed their profit which is very strange even for us as these were the people who normally had stocks all they way till September.The situation is so critical here in India that even 10-20 FCL worth of buying can push up the market by 20-30$'s at any point of time. Once again corrections cannot be ruled out , without those the prices as they say will not make a base , but looking at the current situation even the stable prices should be considered as a correction and a buying

opportunity and it would be very optimistic to wait for big fall.

It is a fact that compared to previous years the long term business this year is negligible and it is virtually impossible to believe if someone says that they are covered for the entire season , that could only mean that they are cutting out on a huge volume and out of the market, otherwise the demand undercurrent is definitely there in the market. People still need to cover and that's a fact , what remains to be seen is till what levels can the market stretch itself before we hit the peak and till when are the buyers willing to wait.

We must also keep in mind that around May/June the farmers come back into the market to purchase seeds for resowing. Each farmer may buy only a few Kg's but keeping in mind that sowing is done in million of hectare and each hectare requires several Kg's it cumulates into a very big quantity.The farmers in Gujarat may find that easy as there is summer crop in April/May for about 10-15,000 Mt but in the U.P ,M.P and Rajasthan which are nowthe main sesame growing areas , more and more farmers are likely to try their hand on sesame growing and that could mean requirement of much muchmore resowing seeds.

Personally speaking we see a strong bottom like resistance at $ 2000-$2100 FOB for Hulled and on the higher levels @ $ 2700 which basically is Rupee 100/KG mark in local prices terms and Rs 100 is a lot of money for 1 Kg of Sesame in India.If we can cross that then if could go up another few $100's.

A small 1500 Mt Korean Tender for Crushing Quality is on the 11th Feb and a bigger one of about 5000 Mt (unconfirmed) later this month.

Korean Tender 20th December

2007-12-20T19:14:00.000+05:30

The Korean Tender for the month of December was officially announced today.

Surprisingly India received all 3500 MT . The price range was as below

500 MT @ USD 1441

500 MT @ USD 1469

1500 MT @ USD 1475

500 MT @ USD 1275 , 90/10 Quality.

Once again the surprising factor remains the absence of aggressive African Bid ,Pakistan as we had discussed

previously seems to be out of action this year.As we mentioned in our past reports the African's we believe are

more content feeding the Chinese demand and are still not eager sellers at lower prices.

The price at which this Tender was taken by India also does not reflect the existing market situation here,

It seems like this tender is more of a average price which the bidding companies have managed to make over the

last 2 months and a effort to test the market sentiments .

The African prices evidently are still much higher and despite the fact that compared to last tender the prices are up

by about $350 already it still leaves a little more to achieve for the next one. The next Tender is rumored to be in

Early Jan for about 6000 Mt.

Market sentiments remain bullish in India on long term , once again periodic corrections cannot be ruled out.

Market was very quite for the past 10 days and despite that we did not witness any big fall , it just moved

sideways most of the time with occasional ups and down depending upon demand justifying the fact that

the market base is strong this year.The scary part remains that despite almost 80 days since new crop

arrivals started not once did we see the markets slide in the natural course due to heavy or excess arrivals.

The small corrections that we did notice were more because of market sentiments from time to time.

Whenever the prices dropped the arrivals went down in correlation as the farmers seem to be very well

connected with day to day movements in the market now.

Arrivals have been very steady for the last 2 months and in the last 2 weeks have started to go down as well ,

which is ofcourse the normal trend every year, arrivals will carry on till Jan after which the game shifts to the stocks.

Prices have shot up by almost 40-45% and we doubt that the crop is being held back at farm levels. A lot of

profit booking has already happened on the stocks as well and now the existing stocks are most probably

of the Mid level range.The stocks this year seem to be in the hands of Big players with good holding

power and with 10 months to go before the next arrivals we don't see them panicking anytime soon,

specially when they have already taken part of their profits home.

We must also take the fact into consideration that this year almost everyone sooner or later did cover all their sales

in advance creating a cash flow problem so not much buying is happening at the moment locally and not much business

has been done for long term so that buying is yet to come in later around Jan End/Feb once the old orders finish.

We must also acknowledge that fact that as on date the suppliers and Stockiest from India still have a average to play with ,

whereas the Africans started their crop with Zero carry over and at very high levels , that means their stocking

is also being done at much higher levels.Indian prices will fall only if African prices go down but if African prices

go down that would mean that 100 % of the stockiest and sellers there would be making a loss. What are the

chances that Africa suddenly drops their prices by few hundred $'s just to sell and make a huge loss

rather than wait for a few months for the demand to pick up during Ramadan or wait for Chinese demand to

resume later in the season ,specially when they know their crop and the global crop is weaker compared to last year.

We look forward to your comments and queries and hope to continue serving you trustfully as always.

We wish everyone a A MERRY XMAS and a VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR.

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED December 4th

2007-12-04T14:17:00.000+05:30

We are sure by now everyone is already aware of the drastic changes that have happened since our last market reports.This time however it is global and not just confined to India and hence probably here to stay for long term.Thankfully there were no new Korean Tenders or else it wouldhave been even worse we believe.However there is some unconfirmed news in the market that we may have a Tender very soon this month.

As we have been pointing out ever since July this time that China factor despite what many people thought otherwise was very crucial.The fact remains that their crop was a disaster and they need Sesame Seed for consumption at all costs , if they get it cheap its fine but even at high prices they shall remain in the market.

In our last report we mentioned that the arrivals did not pick up since the new crop came out and we expected them to rise after Diwali which surprisingly they did not as well. The covering pressure which took the prices up early on in the season soon became a buying one. There have been several crop estimate revisions since the sowing this year , from Double to 1.5 times to same but looking at the arrival situation in the last 60 days since new crop started we believe the latest is as below.

Origin	Initial estimates In mt	First revision in mt	Second revision in mt
MP/UP	250,000	180,000	150,000
Rajasthan	100,000	90,000	75,000
Gujarat	50,000	40,000	35,000
Others	20,000	15,000	10,000
Total	420,000	325,000	270,000

As we all know the arrivals from farm levels go on for about 3 months , so taking that into consideration we can safely say about 60% is already out which leaves very little to count on in the coming month.From the initial a huge huge quantitywas sold to China , ofcourse not all will touch their shores as we have already heard about a lot of defaults happening , but never the less the quantum remains big.What has also happened this year was that most stockiest did not get a chance at lower levels to cover as from Day 1 we were talking about a good crop and the buyers kept feeding everyone here about the possible decline once Africa enters the market , this hesitancy did not allow a lot of stocking and the little that happened was sold with the recent high levels, from what we know through our suppliers is that stocking this year is almost 50% of what it was last year and this could be a real tricky situation later on in the year.Moreover the major stocks this year are in the hands of Big boys and strong stockiest who will not panic to sell very easily.

Another 10-15% rise cannot be ruled out not just because of the global reasons but also as traditionally prices do go up about 15-18% from season start prices by Aug-Sep anyways with the interest and warehousing expenses on the stocks. The prices may seem very high this year but if you compare with last year prices they have actually just above the last years highest levels by 4-5% in Local Rupee terms, it just so happens to be a few months quicker that's it, in US$ terms ofcourse it seems like 15-20% higher.The domestic demand in india has not yet picked up fully and likely to pick up pace soon as well , this demand is usually of the Hulled grade so we may see some pressure in that sector soon.

Africa was and still remains the only factor which could have and can stop this emphatic price rise , but as we mentioned early on with global markets the new travels fast and they knowing that their last crop last them barely 10 months in normal buying condition , this year with increased demand and reduced crop they shall literally have no selling pressure at all and the chances of a major correction for long term seems highly unlikely.Their prices as you will notice are very smartly valued at 7-8% above India,giving them a good market share of the Chinese demand with not much problem.We think this should remain the trend for the coming months as well.

The advantage of selling east is also much bigger than selling to Europe or the USA. The financial rotation is faster because of the low transit time and better payment conditions and also much lesser hassles in terms Quality requirement.This is prompting a lot of traders and Exporters to sell very competitively and with huge volumes there ,creating extra pressure in the market.

We all know that the Central American crop is no good this time , Mexico and Guatemala are priced very high due to their crop damage and that can complex the situation further. Moreover most buyers did not have much old crop carry over as everyone expected prices to fall at the start of the new season , when prices opened at similar levels they waited for the correction which unfortunately never came.We believe that the stocks in Europe , US and other major countries is not enough for them to refrain them from re-entering the markets at some point soon.We understand that these high levels will take time to get accepted with the End users but with global food prices of nearly all commodities shooting up it shall be accepted sooner or later.Sometimes its not the question of price

but of requirement , ofcourse their will be a demand crop but that will inconsequential in comparison to the global shortfall.

Later in the season there is Ramadan early into the Year and the Chinese Olympics , going by past experience these

events do bring in optimistic and concentrated demand in the market as well and with no other origins coming out with new crops at that particular period we could see some eager buying.

Once again the rise and fall's will be in Quantums as we have been saying before.Corrections cannot be ruled out and they probably will happen many times , its upto the buyers to judge what the right levels are for them to enter the market and for a change have belief in their suppliers to judge the market and make their buying decision. More and more interaction with your suppliers will only help getting the right price and right quantity at the right time.Few decisions may go wrong but if you look at the long term picture it will only be benifitial.

If you remember what we said in our July report

QUOTE" in case our above findings are true we suggest that you hold on tight to your respective suppliers as this could be a bumpy year ahead .After years of sorting out of bad suppliers it could be year of sorting out of buyers this year round.You may get the price from time to time but not the desired quantity."UNQUOTE

Korean Tender 5000 Mt Oct/Market Report

2007-11-02T10:29:00.000+05:30

The Korean tender of 5000 Mt for the Month of October was as expected awarded to India in the price range of USD 1107 - USD 1121.

There was negligible participation from the African Nations as their old stocks are as good as finished , however the big surprise was the

absence of a strong participation we usually see during this particular time from Pakistan.As we had mentioned in our previous report we

had heard about a weak crop in Pakistan , being in almost the same geographical location and having similar harvest cycle as Gujarat we

believed that there would have been similar damages to their crop as well , which seems evident from their lack of interest in Korean Tenders.

The new crop arrivals began earlier in October and picked up in quantum around mid of the month. With the last 2 weeks and the coming week

being Holy months in India, which are specially more avidly followed in U.P/M.P region we believed that the arrivals would pick up sooner or later.

However the patience of buyers and forward sellers ran out a little too early and the market has already seen a rise of about 12% from the lowest levels

where it started from.Buying pressure from day one also did not allow the markets to settle down at lower levels and it more or less picked up from the

last year end prices , whereas usually we have experienced a discount of about 8-10% on old crops closing prices in the past.

China factor despite mixed feeling is very much evident , it is now confirmed news that they do have a bad crop , many of us ofcourse will argue on

the size of reduction. The fact remains that they are consuming more and more every year ,that is the reason from a Exporting nation they have now

almost become a net Importing one, barring their trade with Japan and Korea. At conservative levels their crop damage of 30% amounts to about 200,000 Mt

which will definitely put pressure on global prices. Like we mentioned earlier it doesn't matter where they buy from , be it India , Myanmar or Africa that

quantity WILL TRAVEL East.They have supposedly bought quite a lot of cargo from India at low levels earlier in the season mainly due to the fact that

Africa will not be in the market till Dec End/Early. It's a global market now and news travels fast so if the Indian prices are on a high in Dec we see

no reason why our friends in Africa will panic and sell their merchandise at huge discounts as they would have good 10 more months to hold before any

other new crop arrives and a benchmark price from India to base on .Also this year keeping in mind that they finished their last crop in barely 8 months.

Mixed news about their crop ,but general feeling we've heard is of a good crop similar in size to last year.

We still believe that markets went up too much too quickly, however the arrivals surprisingly are not picking up and their is more of covering pressure

at the moment from the people who sold rather than of business being done at higher levels.Everyone again is waiting for prices to fall and that we have

seen in the past never works out well. As per our feeling market should provide a low level window to buy at low level , which we now think maynot be lower

than the levels the season started on. Moreover in the next 2 weeks the domestic demand picks up which always keeps the prices at check as in past.

We think in short term there is good buying opportunity till Mid Nov and for long term around Mid Jan after the African crop arrives but that ofcourse is subject

to how their crop is.

We have alredy seen Intraday jumps of 30-35$'s in the last week and we think this will be case all year , quantum drops and quantum jumps.

Finally in the last few days there has been Rumors that the Govt of India is likely to impose a Ban on Sesame Seeds, today we have that in Newspapers as well.

When and If that will happen remains a mystery.Technically this news should have taken the prices downwards but infact what seems to be happeing is that the spot buying has picked up in a frenzy as everyone is in a rush to get their cargo moved out in case of eventuality.If the ban happens what will happen?Markets in India will ofcourse crash , the seeds will go into crusing for oil but what good will than do to the buyers when we can't export , with India out ,China short and African crop still 2 months away we wonder what the situation will be like.

Korean Tender September 20th /Market Report September

2007-09-26T12:07:00.000+05:30

The new crop Korean Tender was announced on the 20th and as expected the whole quantity of 4500 MT was awarded to India once again. The price range was in the $1025 - $1055 spectrum which is higher than most people actually anticipated.

The were very few African and Pakistani bids which can be due to the fact that African stocks are almost over and they are not expecting new crop before Jan-Feb 2008 and a similar situation for Pakistan as well , also the Pakistan crop is expected to be smaller than last year

mainly due to the fact that it is almost grown in the same climatic region as Gujarat which faced erratic climate this sowing season.

In all our previous reports we have repeated that the crop is delayed which is again holding true. Its almost end of September and the arrivals in Gujarat and Maharastra are barely exceeding a few hundred bags daily. In U.P and M.P the arrivals were barely 4-5 bags which commenced only last week,the seeds arrived are those that small farmers harvest early to clean up their farms and is of crushing grade with high moisture content.

Gujarat and Maharastra will have crops smaller than last year. Sowing area as well as yields per Hectare in these states have reduced substantially.

U.P , M.P and Rajasthan are heading for good crops .The sowing area has no doubt gone up.The areas under cultivation on an average has gone up by 30-40% as compared to last year , but the yield has dropped as some areas had excess rains at plantation stages which destroyed the sowing and also rain deficiency in certain areas at a later stage has affected the crop yield and quality. The quantity should be higher than last year by about 15-20%.This should cover up the losses made in other states and the overall quantity should be same or maybe just a little higher than last year , the last

crop barely lasted us 11 months as the current stocks are almost zero so the next should be just about enough as well keeping a tight demand-supply ratio all year.

The major factors to watch out this year should be the forward trade and the fact that most buyers are not holding big stocks and will need new crop merchandise at all costs as soon as possible. The fear as we have seen in the past is everyone suddenly stepping in to cover at the same time, this should keep the prices high. A lot of forward and speculative trade has happened in the last few weeks and the pipe lines in India are empty as well so we expect a mad rush for buying at the start of new crop. New crop in full swing is not expected before End Oct/Early November around and after the Indian festival of Diwali.

The freights as we all know have gone up almost 2.5 % as compared to last year levels and the US$ has gone down against the Indian Rupee by almost 14% now. Above that there is the rising costs of local transportation and High Interest rates.All these factors put together should keep the average levels high this season. However we feel that there will be windows to cover at attractive levels , everyone needs to stay in close contact with their suppliers as we don't expect that the low levels opportunities will be of longer durations.The price variations as in the past should be quantum and sudden in nature rather than a gradual so the important factor should be not getting the lowest price but maintaining a lowest average.

China crop is now confirmed to be around 40-45% short , which mean that irrespective of when they buy , "THEY WILL BUY". If not from India then from Africa , in either case they will push up the prices whenever they start buying and from what we know there is already a lot of trade inquires in the market for the new crop.

Korean Tender July 23rd.

2007-07-26T13:19:00.000+05:30

The Korean tender for 6000 Mt was awarded today and as expected India managed to bag 5000 Mt at a price range of USD 1137-1143 , Pakistan was awarded the other 1000 Mt. Interestingly in contrast to expectations the African prices were seen ruling higher by 40-50$/MT . We believe the reason for the same is a confirmed Chinese crop failure, the total damage due to floods and crop shifting is expected to be in the range of 30-35% and going by previous trends African suppliers know they can always manage to fetch a better price in the Chinese market when their New Year demand starts and are not is a rush to sell at cheap levels as their new crop doesn't arrive until Feb/March 2008.

Indian crop is also not shaping out too well , Gujarat and Maharashtra will be lucky to have 50 % of what they had last year and the northern states of U.P,M.P and Rajasthan even with a big crop may at best substitute the gap , but even that depends on the rains which have dried up for the last 10-12 days and if it doesn't pick up again we may see some damage to the crop in U.P and M.P as well , atleast in terms of yield leading to lower volumes.The delay is inevitable now and we don't see new crop arriving in full swing before 2nd half October now.

MARKET REPORT JULY 12th

2007-07-12T16:14:00.000+05:30

As expected the next Korean Tender for 6000 Mt was declared yesterday and will open on the 20th .Markets have been very volatile since the tender last month and there is no reason to believe that the volatility will not continue further after this one. We might have one last tender before the new crop arrives in September or Early October as well.

Now about the Rains and sowing , the monsoon rains have again been very erratic this year with huge uneven spread of showers.They were first late to reach respective areas and when they did arrive created havoc. Maharastra, Gujarat and southern Rajasthan have been very badly hit with heavy rains,floods and the problem got multiplied with a few big dams which broke and flooded entire villages.The reports that we have from various sources confirm that a very large areas under cultivation in these areas is hit badly. The small 60 days crop which comes out from this region is said to be completely wiped out, this crop although not big in size usually helps easing the buying pressure on the new crop arrivals which most likely will not be the case this year.

Initial estimates say that we could have a crop size of less than 50% in these areas as apart from the rain damage there has been a massive crop shifting towards groundnuts and cotton as evident from the crop size in last couple of years. Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh are likely to have a good crop, sowing patterns show a rise in area but the yield we believe will continues to remain low as farmers were noticed sowing the same seeds as last year.

However the MP and UP areas are also experiencing erratic rains with no rains for last 8-10 days in certain areas and heavy rainfall in some , at the moment the plants can still survive and resowing can be done if need be but the situation may change if this continues till this month end.

Overall one this is a certainty that new crop will not come out in any region before Mid October and if it does come earlier in smaller batches then that would only lead to panic buying and overall rise in prices by the time bulk quantities arrive.This means the cargo's will not touch respective destination in any case before Mid or end of November , now the question for buyers is "Do they have enough stock to last them till end of November", and even at that moment we are talking small quantities as the shippers will have to service all their clients and not just one.

We also noticed that the overseas markets are quite just because the prices are high , at 100$ cheap im sure anyone can sell any given quantity at the moment so there definitely is a demand undercurrent going on.

About 80% of the factories are shut down at the moment and waiting anxiously to buy raw material and to run their factories, pipe line for the old stock is empty , buyers who waited and waited for prices to fall were caught on the wrong foot and will be eager to buy as well , the domestic demand from India will pick up where one can fetch a high premium compared to export prices without much inspection hassles, stockiest will be lining up to fill their warehouses and the crop is LATE.

Africa will not come out with new crop until Feb-March and confirmed reports from China is that their sowing is down almost 30% again owing to a huge crop shifting to Cotton and Groundnut. We are not trying to scare or create a panic with our reports , if you have read our previous reports you would have noticed that we only try to bring to you the actual mood and sentiments on the Indian market through out wide network of farmers, traders, export fraternity and brokers.

U.P and M.P last year had a big crop but we've all seen that 9 months down the line we are out of stocks, if Gujarat,Maharastra and Rajasthan have smaller volumes then a bigger U.P and M.P crop will at most cover the gap more than anything else. What happens to the Chinese shortfall, the annual growth in demand and increasing pressure from the oil market sector ?

However its too early to assess the size and quantity of the crop , we may get a clearer picture by next month and we shall again send a report for the same,but just in case our above findings are true we suggest that you hold on tight to your respective suppliers as this could be a bumpy year ahead .After years of sorting out of bad suppliers it could be year of sorting out of buyers this year round.As we put in one of our previous reports , you may get the price from time to time but not the desired quantity.

Korean Tender , 11th June 2007

2007-06-11T16:06:00.000+05:30

The Korean Tender announced earlier this month for 4000 Mt was declared today and India was awared all 4000 Mt . We did mention this in our

last Market Report dated June 4th.

QUOTE"If we go by previous trends and current price situation in Africa , India should once again be optimistic in getting a substantial quantity."

1000 Mt @ $1019 ( India)

500 Mt @ $1005 "

500 Mt @ $ 998 "

1000 Mt @ $ 996 "

1000 Mt @ $ 993 "

4000 Mt Total

Prices have been understandably lower compared to the last Tender of April due to slow demand but still in the same vicinity of March Tender levels , taking into account the rising Rupee. The levels of $ 1000 is still maintained and African and Pakistan prices are still hovering around $50-$60 above Indian prices so at root levels

prices are still holding a resistance mostly due to very limited stocks.

The USD continues to be weak globally and if experts are to be believed the Rupee is likely to strengthen further in the coming months.

Just a breif on the Indian Monsoon situation , the Rains have been confirmed delayed by atleast 1 week in main Sesame cultivation regions of Gujrat, MP , U.P

and Rajasthan. However a further delay of 10-12 days is likely if the rains do not reach Gujarat by end of this week. India for the first time in last 20 yrs is experiencing

very very hot summers with temp rising upto 46 Degree Centigrades in North and Central India.

News from China is that there are heavy rains in certain regions and no rains in some so their sowing has not commenced as well and the crop there as well may be

delayed by a few weeks. It is yet too early to comment weather there is any crop damage or not.

MARKET REPORT JUNE 4th

2007-06-04T16:43:00.000+05:30

The much awaited Korean Tender has finally been declared for 4000 Mt and will open on 11th June. Since the last Tender which was announced on April 17th the markets have been very quite. If we go by previous trends and current price situation in Africa , India should once again be optimistic in getting a substantial quantity.

Monsoon as per govt data has touched Indian coasts on time so if all is well we may have rains in Maharastra and Gujarat by Mid of this month and in M .P and U.P by End of June/Early July. The sowing usually commences after the first rains, so with everything going as per schedule we should have new crop in the markets by End September/Early October ( Sesame is a 90 Days crop). This means that the new crop shipments would resume around Mid Oct and reach respective destinations by Early/Mid November. This gives India a good 150 days or 5 more months to work with old crop.

Markets in India have been surprisingly very quite , April/May are traditionally slow months with sluggish demand and this year is no different. The high and unstable prices has also resulted in less aggressive buying from all sectors. The port data however puts in a different picture , we compared the cumulative export data from all the ports and noticed that the actual shipments have fluctuated by merely 8-10% in the last 8 months ( Oct 06 - May 07) , which meansthat most buyers did buy/cover themselves for long term shipments in the earlier months when the prices were not at its peak.

We had pointed this our in our last report as one of the factor for price rise where a bulk of forward contracts were done in the markets in the months of Feb/March.

This also explains why the demand has been sluggish in the last 2 months,a lot of low prices cargo was being shipped which kept the prices at destination under check and the overseas local market did not move in tandem with Indian local prices.

Prices in the last 2 months have more or less moved sideways clearly reconfirming that the stocks are not big enough to create a widespread panic and the stockiest still believe that the demand would resume anytime soon. Current prices may seem high as compared to the season start but that is more due to the Rupee strengthening against the USD. The rupee has appreciated by about 11 % since the start of the season.

For example if we say someone has raw material stocks at oct levels he would have to add 10 % for 8 months as interest ( @ 15% Annually which is basic in India for private lending ) also added to this the warehousing,handling,weight reductions( due to moisture loss) say roughly 1.5% Per Month or 12% . Over and above this we have 11% appreciation of the USD so that makes it a total of 10% + 12% +11 % = 33%.

Taking all these factors into consideration we can understand why the market has shown resilience and not fallen much despite slow demand. At current prices the stockiest are barely cutting even on their stocks and hence are very apprehensive selling their stocks at any lower prices. The markets as be believe has now bottomed out and any further fall would probably end in stockiest holding back and not offering atall.

At the moment about 70% of all Hulling factories have taken a shut down and would resume only on new crop arrival now. Usually factories do not take a shut down if they have stocks left , the operational factories are also running mostly on end to end basis covering their sales and not holding excess merchandise. With atleast 4 more months before the new crop hits the market it would be interesting to see the situation then, as every factory would be eager to cover new crop as soon as possible and resume production. Even if there is slow demand now the stockiest know that the buyers will be without stocks by October and also cover aggressively when the season resumes.

The Ramadan demand as expected has not picked up yet but hopefully will happen by this month end.We have not yet heard or seen of any big stocks in the market and most smaller regional suppliers have almost Zero leftovers.We may have 1 or 2 more Korean tenders before October.

Interesting to see now is that weather the demand stays sluggish for the next 150 days or will the markets finally accept the fact that there is little to loose on current levels and resume buying.

We will keep you posted on the Korean Tender once it is announced.

KOREAN TENDER MARKET REPORT 17th APRIL

2007-04-17T14:09:00.000+05:30

The new Korean Tender after a delay of 2 weeks is finally declared today. Although the quantity was

reduced to 4000 MT from the initial expectations of 5000 Mt , India still managed to bag 3000 Mt as anticipated

and about $ 120 (Average) higher as compared to last tender declared on March 5th. This clearly indicates that

Africa is still expensive as compared to other origins and may continue to be as their crop size is nowhere near normal.

1000 Mt @ $1042 ( India)

500 Mt @ $1038 "

500 Mt @ $1048 "

500 Mt @ $1042 "

500 Mt @ $1047 "

1000 Mt @ $1035 (Pakistan)

4000 Mt Total

Interestingly if you look at our last reports of March 5th you will notice we mentioned about this price rise as follows.

QUOTE "If we take the Korean Tender and African Prices as benchmark , it still leaves India a whooping $100 cheaper and that much more window to increase at the least in the coming months." UNQUOTE

We did see a panic situation in March which took the prices even higher than expected, to levels which were definitely not sustainable as the prices shot up too much too quickly , from what we saw the prices were being governed by 3 major factors :

A ) Forward selling by both Exporters and Importers to their respective clients which needed to be covered and as the prices started to rise it created a panic situation.

B) Genuine reason that the arrivals virtually stopped at farm level creating a short supply and as a general rule the stockiest came into play.This factor still remains valid as the material in the market is now barely enough to sustain a normal Export demand of about 100,000 MT for the six month period April-September from India.

C) All the global crops which are supposed to create supply pressure during Feb/Mar ( Africa & S.America) failed to do so as none had a normal crop , irrespective of the prices it is still a fact that none of the origins have a big crop and as the earliest new crop is still a good 5 months away ( China comes out first in September) we expect the volatility in the prices will stay.

The Indian market needed a correction and that is exactly what has happened in the last 2 weeks, however most of its effect is diluted by the big fall in USD against Indian Currency. The Rupee is at its 9 year highest levels against the USD which makes things that much more complicated for exports. Since the start of the season itself we have seen the $ fall by as much as 8%.

We have time and again repeated that despite the rising price there will be some opening which would allow a good bargain , from what we see that now is the time to keep a close watch and also not a bad time to cover and make a good average base for the coming 5 months.

The likely demand for Ramadan and from China is still a major factor and once that happens it could create a similar situation as last month where everyone waited and waited and then stepped into the market all at the same time. The markets are now at a very sensitive stage and any small indication of demand will definitely push up prices to it is advisable to step in slowly and quietly.

As the prices have gone up almost 30% from season start level it is more likely that the stockiest are sitting on merchandise which is purely their profit having recovered their principle amounts by disposing 60-70% of the total , this gives them enough liquidity and financial strength to hold on to the little they are left with and not offer huge bargains. As on date as well with falling prices it would not be possible to get out bigger volumes at similar levels , just as we said in our last reports that at some stage you may have the desired price but not the desired quantities.

2007-04-14T13:39:00.000+05:30

Short supply in the market at the moment , arrivals stopped last month and withprices rising suddenly there was lot of buying ,prices have risen by almost 40% since the start of season and almost all stockiest made money which has given them enough liquidity strength to now hold on to whatever little stocks they are left with , so unless there is some drastic change we do not see the markets falling by much.

Currently the markets are quite , mostly due to lack of demand owing to the long Easter holidays , there is

however a Korean Tender of 4000 MT to be declared next week on 17th April , if India once again gets this we may see

another jump.

KOREAN TENDER MARKET REPORT 5th MARCH

2007-04-04T13:47:00.000+05:30

The much awaited Korean Tender was finally declared today.

As expected India was awarded all 6000 MT , however surprisingly this time there is a huge price band( $ 906 - $958 ) in which the tender has moved , clearly showing that the gap between India and African/Pakistan prices have now grown substantially and that the market is now ready to accept higher and all possible price levels.

1000 MT @ $906

1000 MT @ $910

500 MT @ $923

500 MT @ $928

1000 MT @ $929

500 MT @ $941

1500 MT @ $958

6000 Mt Total

Interestingly all other origins were well above $ 1000 Levels and that too for much smaller quantities.It is now clear that Africa does not have the usual crop size ,they have come out with revised crop estimates which put their crop to just about 70-80% of last year levels.If we take the Korean Tender and African Prices as benchmark , it still leaves India a whooping $100 cheaper and that much more window to increase at the leastin the coming months.

Sources/Rumors have it that new Korean tenders will also be floated in the coming 4 months , for 5000 MT + quantities each, that has put a lot of pressure on the market already as the current stocks may be barely enough to accommodate these quantities and normal demand at best. Even last year the Korean tenders picked up about 15,000 MT in the period April- Sep, this figure is most likely to be much more this year looking at the sesame crop scenario outside India.

Markets continue to remain bullish and firm.Prices as we all know have touched new heights and still show no sigh of slowing down. We still believe that there is enough stocks in the market to keep us going till the arrival of next new crop but just enough.By normal demand India should export around 100,000 MT in the period Apr-September which is all with strong stockiest now as arrivals have virtually stopped in the markets now.

We did point out some major points which could be crucial in determining the prices in our last report and each and unfortunately each and everyone has made an impact.Prices have risen by almost 20% since the start of the season giving the Stockiest a huge advantage and strength to further hold on for longer periods. We still think that it would be highly optimistic to believe that one can get huge discounted viz a viz current levels in the coming months.

Everyone ask's " What do you think will be the highest level this year ?" , I wish I knew the answers to that , " Are the current levels overpriced ?" , To this I can confidently say NO , they are not. We have seen that the prices rise very quickly and then stagnate for week/month before another jump , giving us all a false re-assurance that they are sliding when indeed they are just bottoming out , this should continue to be the trend in the coming months and the jumps as we all know are in quantum of 50-100$ each time so even with just a few hiccups in the next 6 months we may see prices touch new highs. I think at current levels the market at max may drop 2-3 % but to gain there is a lot lot more.

Here we are not even taking into account the probable return of Chinese Demand later in the season, possibility of next 3-4 Korean Tender each going to India and also the month of Ramadan which again starts in September this year, the shopping for which should start anytime around July/August. We wont have the new crop by then so once again the demand will have to be substituted with the current crop and just as we saw last year the prices took a huge leap in the later month when the Ramadan demand from Middle East/Indonesia, Turkey and Lebanon set in. This year should not be any different.

Markets are sounding bullish and we are no different. However I would still say there definitely would be some openings to get a good bargain in the market when smaller players decide to book profits and exit the market.It is very important to keep a close watch on the markets from now on as you may see your desired price levels but may not get the desired quantity at those levels.

MARKET REPORT - JANUARY 18th , 2007

2007-04-04T13:42:00.000+05:30

In continuation to my last report , prices have more or less stabilized with minor up's and down as per demand and supply.

The US$ remains volatile though at lower levels effecting the prices.

The local/domestic demand which had created a panic like situation has slowed down and the Export demand which was slow during holiday season is showing sighs of recovery despite this the prices have managed to stay more or less constant,indicating the bottom line resistance just as we had anticipated.

I believe most buyers domestic & overseas are now covered for their short term requirements upto Feb-Mar, so we don't see a big buying coming in the market for the time being unless everyone suddenly decides to step in the market to cover their long term, so there is little to panic.

However we must keep a close watch on the Korean Tenders,rumors of demand from Turkey/Middle east as African prices continue to remain high and maybe the return of Chinese demand in March after the end of their New Year Holidays , upon which they would have substantially depleted their existing stocks.

The arrivals from farmers have dwindled and we might not see fresh arrivals in the market beyond Mid Feb after which the prices will be stock driven.The crop situation is now almost clear and with evident figures of arrival in Gujrat,Maharastra Rajasthan over the last 90 days we can now safely say that their crop is indeed a failure and may not cross 70-80,000 Mt put together and the U.P/M.P crop put together will be around 175,000 Mt against initial estimates of 200,000 Mt.

However all these figures have little impact on prices for now but it has definetly resulted in a lot of stocking this year. Also as stated in my last report the news of weak mustard/rapeseed crop is also keeping a check on prices. This year in India we are facing a very dry and

comparatively a timid winter which is effecting most winter crops grown here ,this is the biggest oilseed crop season in India and a bad crop of Mustard/Rapeseed could have great impact on other oilseeds in the coming months.

I still believe between now and Mid March there will be some great windows to cover your requirements at attractive prices as the short term players in India would bea eager to exit from sesame to other commodities.After that its only the strong holders in the market who are anticipating a rise and probably would not offer a discounted price in a rush , however we still don't see a vast price rise in long term either,maybe in line of a average 1.5%-2% /Month from Feb onwards.

The news from Africa confirms a good crop this year well but its still too early to asses the size,by the time African crop make any impact on international prices we would have entered into a phase where India will have sold/consumed most of its crop and stockist would determine the prices.Latest news from Africa also confirm that the prices are still high there.

Korean Tender 20th Nov

2007-04-04T11:55:00.000+05:30

KOREAN TENDER :-

20th NOV-2006

The Korean tender was declared today , please find the details as below :

2000 Mt @ $ 806 to Sudan

1000 Mt @ $ 827 to Pakistan

1000 Mt @ $ 821 to India

1000 Mt @ $ 829 to India

500 Mt @ $ 829 to India

500 Mt @ $ 833 to India

700 Mt @ $ 831 to India

Interesting facts to note is the price difference between India and Sudan's price, for the past 5-6 Tenders we always saw that Sudan was 4-5 $ above India but this time its the opposite way round so it seems that Sudan got rid of its old stock at low prices and since they did not bid a huge quantity seems like they don't have a big carry forward either.

Now it would be interesting to see if with their new crop Sudan decides to sell at lower price than India or do they

Increase their prices in line with Indian prices knowing well that India also does not have a big crop to offer discount prices.

Another point to note is the absence of Chinese Bid's , which clearly states that although they have a big crop its still not enough for exportsso there is always a chance of them buying little from Africa later.Pakistan is not all that competitive either.

Markets have not risen today after a panic increase we saw in the past 2 weeks,but they have not fallen either mostly due to strong domestic demand and should remain stable and firm in the coming weeks.

I think we are very near the bottom line now and with bad news of weak Mustard Crop , high prices of Groundnut and Soya bean already floating in the market i don't see the markets going down by a lot even with weaker

demand and soft international prices in months to come.

Price Rise Report November

2007-04-04T11:52:00.000+05:30

have complied a few reason for the sudden price rise for your assessment.

A:-

Like i mentioned in my previous reports the local demand which was very quite suddenly picked up and buying started at all levels ,although the demand is not huge but still since it came all too sudden and that created a panic among in the sellers , specially the Sun Dry factories which had sold quite a volume for exports now did not have much spare capacity for Nov/Dec delivery and hence got very good premium on prices from the local market.

B:-

The stockiest also decided that previous weeks levels were lowest and stepped in to buy as well. Heavy stocking was seen on all sectors including stockiest from the Gujrat/Maharastra region where the crop is less , so it is highly unlikely that further down in the season we will see very lowlevels again.

Few of the buyers panicked as well , some which had held back their spot buying for a better price till very last moment also stepped in. I mentioned in my previous report that if all buyers step in together it could create a tricky

situation and that is almost what happened last week.

D:-

Rupee went up almost 3% against the US$ in just 1 week adding to the problems.

F:-

News of a 6500 MT Korean Tender on 20th Nov created some ripples as well as few of the regular Tender players were seen covering from the markets. If India does get this tender it could boost the confidence of traders once more

as all the news of African carry over stocks and low prices for new crop will then be nullified since the delivery for this tender is upto Jan 2007 well after the new crop arrival of African crop.

G:-

The arrivals have also gone down substantially and it seems like all the news of a Bumper crop in U.P and MP region are not all that true , we still have a good crop but nothing in the range of expectation of 200,000 MT , it is more likely around 150,000 Mt.

Overall it was a panic situation last week and definitely not good for the trade,i am sure a lot of Sellers and Buyers were caught off guard by this sudden market change,but that's how it is in the Indian market , i think we will see such panic situation more in the coming months based on various situations then.

MARKET REPORT NOV 6TH

2007-04-04T11:41:00.000+05:30

Like i previously informed our clients that markets were expected to ease after the Diwali and Ramadan holidays on event of bigger arrivals which did happen in the last week.

However the arrivals are now back to normal and prices have again started to firm up in the last few days due to some demand lately.If you recollect from my previous report in September,i had indicated that the Rupee generally slides in the period of Nov-Jan in line of heavyexports from India that has been the case this year as well.The rupee has slided by over 3% against the US$ in the past 2 weeks and continues to slide even today,this automatically makes the export that much more expensive even if the local prices stay the same.

We have not yet seen the local winter demand in India or heavy stocking at current levels but we assume

that it may start very soon to add stability to local prices. I agree to that fact that China has a good crop and Africa looks good till now as well but there are still 2 month before African crop is out and a little more period before that will

create any impact on international prices. Africa has also witnessed high prices in the last two years so it is unlikely

they would be eager sellers at throwaway prices too, china in the past has surprised us all and with theirNew Year falling in Jan they may end up using a majority of their crop and might come back for shopping later in the season once again , Chinese are known to have sudden quantum jumps in their demand in the past whichhas virtually turned them from a net exporter to a net consumer country.

If by Dec-Jan India does manage to sell a substantial quantity then it could be a tough year ahead as the stockiest

will not part with their stocks at lower levels than today's. We also have to keep in mind that the groundnut, Sunflower

and Mustard crop is not very big this year in India and their prices are on the higher levels as well , so if sesame prices fall any further , sesame may get diverted to the crushing factories as the oil content is much more that other oil seeds and the oil can then be used for blending with other expensive grades.

If the farmers do manage to keep the current prices going till Dec-Jan after which the crop is mostly in the hands of

stockiest and exporters it could create a tricky situation. I believe most buyers have held back their demand in anticipationof falling prices and i can only hope that everyone does not step in the market together anytime soon.

We are in no way trying to indicate that prices may shoot up but merely stating a few points which we come across locally , we have in the past said that prices are likely to remain stable and firm with periodic up's and down this year and overall we still think that the Yearly Average Price of your purchase is unlikely to go below current levels in all account , unless something drastic happens in the coming few months.

Sesame Seed

2007-04-04T11:27:00.000+05:30

Hello friends, i have created this blog to collect and discuss information about the Global Sesame Seed Market. I am sure with all our collective efforts we can gain from mutual knowledge.