tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-12513039888004022882024-03-25T11:39:21.577+05:30Sesame Seed Market ReportAlso Available on new platform.
https://worldofsesame.wordpress.com
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.comBlogger73125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-65074215053478057302020-06-17T11:10:00.001+05:302020-06-17T12:58:13.742+05:30Market Report Sesame Seed June 15 <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"></span></span><br />
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">
I hope everyone is safe and healthy wherever they are and taking all needed precautions to keep themselves and their loved ones safe.</span></span><br />
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In these tough unpresedented times we need to look out for each other and I am sure this nightmare will soon end. Sesame Seeds as we know is way down in the priority list of the food chain in most cases so I don't really expect any dramatic changes in our trade but nevertheless this is what I and you do, so its important that we discuss it in all sincerity.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Summarising ,Last 3 Months till Date ( India) :</u></b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">1:- Till early March the world was starting to feel the heat of Covid scare, China had a lockdown, EU/US cases had started to go up and widespread panic was setting in , but things were still moving. By end of March things were a little more scarier , India Imposed a lockdown suddenly and things came to a standstill. EU/US and other countries soon had restrictions too, public places and restaurants were the first casualties.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">2:- With 99% Hulling factories closed in India the stock piled up and pending orders started to build up , Imports which were coming got stuck at the ports, shipments which were supposed to go out got stuck at various levels too. Most buyers understood the situation and co-operated. At consumption destinations the warehouse stocks started to shrivel up.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">3:- April was a total wipeout in terms or production, by early May things got a little easier , production resumed in limited capacity , Imported cargo's got cleared and a lot of the excess cargo booked by Indian companies got diverted to China as things were still better there. But still the stock buildup for the hulling factories was more than normal and with a sudden fall in Rupee it was priced much much higher than anticipated , adding to the woes were exorbitant demurrage/detentions that the importers had to pay.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">4:- By end May/Early June the Gujarat summer crop started to pour in and prices started correcting , the pending orders moved out , most without any problems but some clients did take advantage of the situation and revised/cancelled contracts which I personally think is not the right way to do in tough times. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">5:- Then came the Korean Tender news , with attractive low levels India got all 9000 MT as expected at really really competitive levels. Just as we thought its going smooth the bad news about Bengal Double Skin crop which is a huge crop for Indian crushing industry started to come in, with damage numbers ranging from 30%-70% a buying frenzy by stockist and speculators tried to pull up the market for a short time.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Summarising ,Last 3 Months till Date (World) :</u></b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">1:- Africa started to face problems in shipping by April ,with on and off lockdowns and limited availability of container and vessels which meant that a lot of cargo which could have been sold or shipped out got stuck at the origin.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">2:- The consumption worldwide started to go down too, the worst hit were stand-alone Bakeries etc, unlike India or developing nations the Breads/Bakery shops in Europe/America are mostly located at prime real states to bring in better and bigger clientele who would happily pay a premium for their product, now with limited movement a lot of that business has moved to supermarkets, where people can just buy everything they need under one roof and so smaller shops are on the brink of closure. How many people that you know can still walk into a bakery establishment and pick up that bread which is kept in an open basket that "Could" have been touched by someone else. Not many I am sure.</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">So basically the Super Store sales of bread by Corporate suppliers are Up while the artisan breads like the NY Bagel's or Simit etc will be down. In Middle East sales of bulk pack Tahina to restaurants will be down but small bottle sales for home consumption could be up. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Bulk Sesame oil sales to restaurants will be down in South East Asia but Domestic bottle sales may have been isolated.</span></span><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">Someone catering Sesame sticks/Crackers to Airlines/Hotels may have zero demand but someone selling Sesame cookies for a government run food program may see a quantum jump. So depending who you are actually catering to your perception for Demand and Consumption could be different. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">3:- Sesame Seed as we know is just an Ingredient ,I've said this before and I'll say this again, we are probably the only industry that doesn't spend money or time in promoting the benefits of the product that we sell/buy.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In a pandemic situation while many products marketed themselves as Immunity boosters we simply rely on people's decision to Order a "Burger" , Eat "Hummus" , ask for some extra "Tahini" in their Falafel burger, Use a little Sesame Oil in their Hot Pot because it smells and tastes better , buy a fresh "Simit Bread" covered with Sesame Seeds while they stroll through the markets or garnish their Salads/Noddles with some seeds for that crunchy taste.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">Let me know if missed on some other fancy uses :)</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Our product identification is mostly on Junk or Soul food which sells more in Happy times , I hope Happy Times return soon.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">I really hope for my sake and yours that people keep doing what they have been doing all these years because I'm yet to meet a person who craves for " Sesame Seed" . </span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">We were, We are and</span><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"> we will continue to be replaceable if we continue to do business as usual.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u><br /></u></b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Running Numbers and Facts :-</u></b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">1:- Unfortunately Indian Export/Import numbers have not been officially updated so we will simply have to assume. I assume the Imports were same or maybe higher than the average of 15,000 MT/Month which means about 45,000-50,000 MT was imported in these 3 months , mostly for Hulling i.e.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">About the Export numbers the situation is exactly opposite , The exports in no way could have been higher than the average of 20,000 MT/Month, Remember India has not exported more than 340,000 MT annually in the last 5 years and this year we would end up below 300,000 MT when the numbers do come out.March was slow, April was a wash out and May numbers would probably be higher just because a lot of pending shipments moved out not because a fresh demand.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Now that means a lot of cargo from India is on its way to the consuming markets where </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A:) It will replenish the reduced stocks.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">B:) Ease out the supply situation as the consumption is low anyway.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">2:- The Indian Summer crop can easily be estimated to be about 60-70,000 MT for White , however most of it is good 99/1 grade which will go for NSS sorting with limited supply available for Hulling unless someone desperately needs ready cargo. The stockiest/ speculators will hold about 50% of </span></span></span><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">this cargo for later supplies. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">3:- Carry over stocks situation in India is the same as it was in March , nothing much has changed as factories didn't produce , spot demand was met by the Imports and forward demand by summer crop. Whatever cargo was sitting in the warehouses is still very much there , I would estimate it to be around 25,000-30,000 All India basis easily. This cargo probably wouldn't be available easily till we get sure shot news about the winter crop. Stockiest are already loosing money on it and they would like to hold on a little longer in anticipation of some sudden demand or a crop failure.</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">4:- Imports from Africa have dried out , most people had diverted extra cargo to China or elsewhere and with high Rupee and falling domestic market it made no sense to book afresh in Africa which means only limited volumes will come into India in June/July. This I think is an interesting change to watch out for. If you book Africa today the price parity for Hulled Sesame today will certainly be not below current levels which practically stems any chances of a big fall in prices for Hulled in the coming months.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">5:- As you all must have read there was a huge movement of Migrant workers from Cities to the Villages in India , they are back now and not going to the cities anytime soon as the general perception among the poor is that " <i>Why would I get stuck in a strange place in case of another lockdown when I can be home with my family " and </i></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><i>" </i></span></span><span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><i style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">Its a rich man's </i><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><i>imported</i></span></span><i style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> disease which is more in Big cities , villages are safe</i><b style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); font-family: Georgia, "Times New Roman", serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> " </b></span><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">also</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"> the jobs are anyways limited. So these people in villages will surely not sit idle , they will do manual labour provided by the Govt/NGO's etc which right now is about Restoring Water bodies in preparation for Monsoon, building check dams on river fronts etc. Apart from that the government is leasing out a lot of land it owns to landless farmers for cultivation , they would grow something, not saying " Just Sesame" , but whatever grows in that area for that matter, pulses, grains, oilseeds, vegetables , cattle feed could be anything but surely not a single farm will go untilled this monsoon season. India will have a bumper Kharif Season.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Which means the first part "Acreage of Sesame" will be higher than previous years no matter what anyone says.The second part of "Yield/output " will depend on how favourable the weather remains for the period of the crop</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">6:- Tanzania /Mozambique and other East African crops have started to come in and most say the numbers could be around 220,000-240,000 MT </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">7:- Port stocks in China were last said to be hovering around 200,000 MT mark with outgo reduced from 3000 MT Daily to below 2000 MT Daily , however new arrivals are said to be slowing down as like all smart buyers they did not buy much for May/June shipments in anticipation of East African new crops and slowing consumption. </span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">8:- Indian Exports at "BEST" could touch an average of 20,000 MT per month in the next 3-4 months till new crop is available , So say till 15 October "MAX" we need about 100,000 ( Hulled/Natural combined ) at " MOST " to sustain our factories, anything more, it simply sits in the warehouses and anything less we panic and start booking more from Africa. </span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Easy as the number may look, its now a battle between the " Have's " and the "Have not's " , one Exporter/Trader may have excess and another could be short , this delicate balance is what's probably going to keep the market going for the next 3-4 months till ready availability for all returns.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">9:- If the worldwide consumption is down I think the real impact will start to show in the coming months more than it is evident now. Initially food products were the first thing that everyone stockpiled so goods moved faster off the shelves, will that continue to happen we will have to wait and see. </span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A drop of 30% in consumption is reported from all areas worldwide and probably in all commodities.</span></span><span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">Since we are eating less from outside the food wastage numbers which were said to be about 30-40% of the total consumption worldwide have started to show up, also the diet patterns could have also been altered towards more fresh local produce.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">A 30% drop in consumption for Sesame Seed over 6-8 months gives the world a buffer of about 300,000-400,000 MT.</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">EU population is around 700 Million and in the peak tourist season of May-August almost 300 Million tourist visit various EU destinations and on top of that the local population moves , Germans sip </span></span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">French wine, French enjoy the German beer , Italian relish the Greek Salad while the Greeks are enjoying Spanish bruschetta. </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="white-space: pre-wrap;">Japanese probably stock piled for their Olympic demand , thats not happening this year either. </span></span><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">All that is not happening this year.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif; white-space: pre-wrap;">Not trying to post a grim picture but facts are facts.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b><u>Conclusions :-</u></b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">As always the market is segregated into segments, Bulls, Bears based on fact , lets see the two in isolation.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Bearish Facts :-</b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A:- Consumption is down worldwide, its not coming back to its original levels anytime soon.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">B:-Port Stocks in China are high and should continue to remain so as their new crop arrives in 3 months time and new shipments from Tanzania/Mozambique move in. High priced stocks in China are stuck for good and can/will only move once they are heavily discounted which creates downward pressure in the market anyways.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">C:- Unstable currency worldwide are changing the number games everywhere, farmers get a fair price sometimes even if the dollar price seems low.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">D:- Everytime there is a quantum jump at one Origin the buyers now quickly move to the next , this is creating a natural hedge which creates high priced buffer stocks which eventually flood the market in desperate sales.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">E:- A Big Brazil crop is almost round the corner, Chinese/Myanmar crop comes in 3 months, Indian crop in 4 , then followed by Africa by Dec. So the world will have ample fresh supply in the months to follow , the window for exit is that much smaller. You can get in through the big door but you will have to crawl out the small window.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><b>Bullish Facts :-</b></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">A:- India did not buy much from Africa in the last few months so Imports will dry out from next month onwards , fresh bookings will not reach Indian ports before September.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">B:- Pan India stocks are low and of higher prices, they won't be available cheap anytime soon or at least not in in bulk.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">C:- If the Covid situation improves we could see a demand resurrection as destination stocks are low in consuming countries apart from China.If another lockdown happens in India the supply Lines this time will be severely effected.</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">D:-With a good monsoon expected , Winter sesame crop could get affected.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><span style="caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;">My personal gut feeling is that markets will remain rangebound till we get over this Covid mess , Food Inflation is the last thing any government wants as it makes them an automatic target for the media and Villian in their citizens mind. Any business that tries to increase their retail consumer prices will face a massive backlash.Price jump in commodity means the retailers/food processors start loosing money.</span></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">In these tough times it is almost criminal to be thinking or hoping for Expensive food as the poor suffer the most eventually. Stable rangebound business is good for everyone for the time being.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Cheap prices will surely not spur up demand as consumption sectors are limited in current situation but Expensive prices can surely divert it elsewhere. Overall I think current levels are fair to everyone, Sesame going down to 3 figures is a possibility ( Old stocks in Africa/Brazil etc) but it would be temporary , on a higher side I think $1350-$1400 FOB levels for Natural Sortex is Max.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Hulled Sesame I see a bottom of $1500-1550 FOB and on the higher side a top of $1700 -$1750 Max. i.e A 10% upward-downward range from current levels in the next 3-4 months.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Thank you everyone , Please do write back with your suggestion and comments and feel free to connect with me on WhatsApp and share this report . It would be our pleasure to serve your requirement to the best of our ability.</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;">Regards</span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<b>Mukul Gupta<br />Shakumbhari Expo Impo Ltd<br />Mob :- +91-9837084355 ,+91- 6396010144<br />Email:- <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="https://draft.blogger.com/u/1/null">mukul@shakumbhri.org</a><br /><a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="https://draft.blogger.com/u/1/null"> mugupta78@gmail.com</a><br />BRC , IFS and SEDEX Certified/Audited Company.</b></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; caret-color: rgb(60, 35, 35); white-space: pre-wrap;"><span style="font-family: "georgia" , "times new roman" , serif;"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: #fffdf6; color: #3c2323; font-family: "rubik" , "trebuchet ms" , "lucida grande" , "lucida sans unicode" , "lucida sans" , "tahoma" , sans-serif; font-size: 20px; white-space: pre-wrap;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-79032790312924450522020-02-17T17:23:00.000+05:302020-02-18T12:26:28.317+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report Feb 17th 2020<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Hi Everyone,<br />
<br />
I was just going through my last report of September 2019 and found that our assumptions were true to quite an extent.<br />
<br />
<a href="https://sesameseedmarket.blogspot.com/2019/09/sesame-seed-market-report-sept-29th-2019.html">https://sesameseedmarket.blogspot.com/2019/09/sesame-seed-market-report-sept-29th-2019.html</a><br />
<br />
<b style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">"Whats happens in Best case scenario</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;"> is that for short period the Domestic demand will kick in simultaneously with the Export demand and prices may/may-not rise depending on the intensity of crop arrivals at market yards, if they don't then we simply Import less, even if they Do we start Importing Smaller Quantities. Both cases will cool off the prices slowly and stabilise them. Max movement in such a scenario should be Plus/Minus $100-$150/MT either ways.Markets remain range bound , Win Win for everyone."</span><br />
<br />
<br />
<b>That was good 5 months ago , Lets talk numbers now to first understand what worked and what they have in store for us over the next few months.</b><br />
<br />
Indian Exports in the Last few months viz a viz Previous year.<br />
<br />
<u> 2019 2018</u><br />
September 22,400 MT 31,500 MT<br />
October 23,480 MT 26,650 MT<br />
November 26,540 MT 22,120 MT<br />
December <u> 37,400 MT </u> <u>24,070 MT</u><br />
<b>109,820 MT</b> <b>104,340 MT</b><br />
<br />
Indian Imports in the same Period<br />
<br />
<u>2019 2018</u><br />
September 11,090 MT 7,100 MT<br />
October 11,100 MT 13,800 MT<br />
November 29,500 MT 21,400 MT<br />
December <u> 19,500 MT </u> <u>25,500 MT</u><br />
<b> 71,190 MT</b> <b>67,800 MT</b><br />
<br />
<br />
Mostly stagnant, only the sudden spike we see in December 2019 was due to the Indian Government notification of Export Incentives being discontinuing from 1st Jan which lead to exporters rushing and trying to move the cargo faster. I belive the January 2020 Data when its available will show that the Exports have fallen or stabilised in Jan 2020. Import I would like to belive should remain in the range of 20,000 MT for Jan.<br />
<br />
Indian crop despite all odds, our expectations and according to the survey given by IOPEPC was about 300,000 MT which I think holds true. We saw peak daily arrivals in Mid October- End November in all 4 major states i.e UP/MP/Rajasthan/Gujrat touch 30-35,000+ bags collectively , so that's about 2500 MT x 45 days which makes it about 120,000 MT , in December is dropped down to say half of that so thats roughly 40,000 MT and say around 500 MT per Day since Jan till now which should add the numbers to around 200,000 MT .<br />
<br />
Apart from this I would assume about 20-25,000 MT volumes would have gone directly from farm to stockiest or arrived in smaller market yards data for which is not extrapolated properly. The balance will trickle slowly and steadily in the next 5-6 Months.<br />
<br />
<b>SPOT and FUTURE</b> :-<br />
<br />
Markets right now are at their lowest of the season but still in the range of Plus/Minus $100-$150 from the highs, it would be interesting to see if they can breach the bottom or revise upwards in the coming months .<br />
<br />
What we see at the moment is limited supply and a stable supply line but a slightly discounted/aggressive selling from Hulling units to keep the volumes flowing, once the volumes are covered the discount goes down , so the best price is only for the people who enter first and after that its the same for everyone else who steps in. Yet we see hesitation in the market.<br />
<br />
The trade needs to understand that Sesame is now truly a global commodity, with goods flowing in all directions and every 3-4 months there is a crop coming out somewhere which can change the basics of price assumptions depending on its size and demand.<br />
<br />
<b>Major Crops flow globally is as follows</b><br />
<br />
China( September) ---> India/Myanmar (October ) -----> Sudan/Nigeria/Burkina/Ethiopia( Nov-Dec)-----> Somalia( Jan/Feb---->India Summer (May)--->Tanzania/Mozambiue/Myanmar(June/July)<br />
<br />
I could be off by a few months for some origins and missing some, but I am sure you get the basic point. The play is not "<b> Who has how much</b> " , the play really is. " <b>Who needs what , WHEN</b>" , its all about the timing , the consumption pattern worldwide have been well defined with sporadic and short bursts of Demand and dull periods , these rarely change the consumption volumes but do bring in the sense of false triggers. There is definitely a consumption growth worldwide but its not concentrated, its mostly spread over the whole year and all destinations combined.<br />
<br />
We also need to understand that there is a consumption and production limitation everywhere , India can Import or have any size of crop but there is a top line in terms of production that it can manage, If my maths holds true we roughly have a built up capacity of Max 25000-30,000 MT for Hulled + Natural Sortex Per Month , Natural/Black etc of course can be anything more depending on what grade is Exported. Similarly Imports into India are limited to few countries depending on the lowest price available , above a certain threshold India just cannot afford to Import since we need to Re-Export Hulled from it , so one origin might have all the sesame and India might be totally empty but we just cannot Import unless the price works out for Hulled Sesame. This limits our options dramatically in the world trade.<br />
<br />
<b>China/Africa :- </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
This is something the world was not ready for, when Corona Virus started we all thought it would go away soon but it seems to be getting bigger and as on today it shows little sign of slowing down.<br />
We all hope that it will go away soon and normalcy will return to China and the rest of the world. However since China is by far the biggest Consumer of Sesame we cannot deny that it will certainly have an impact on the volumes. Just heard that they are replacing/Sterilising their Currency Notes since they could be biggest carriers in cross contamination, if its come to this I doubt things would be back to normal in a hurry. Even when the virus goes away it might take weeks before people flock to restaurants or decide to eat out as they used to.<br />
<br />
<b>FOOD FIRST</b> , Since everyone is taking precaution in China I would assume that at the moment people would be stocking food in their homes in eventuality and anticipation of the worst , which means most products on the store shelves have either already been picked up or will get consumed/picked up soon enough.<br />
Since most factories are closed or working below capacity it is highly unlikely that the shelves will be replenished anytime soon , that specially since things like Sesame Paste/Sesame Oil/ Sesame cakes etc are not necessary/staple foods for the masses. The "HOTPOT" culture has taken a hit , it was one of the major consumption points of Sesame Oil/Sesame Paste and it might take a while for that to return to normalcy as well.<br />
<br />
The port stocks in China are surely moving slowly and the cargo already afloat will eventually reach them too , however from what we have heard they are slow right now in fresh purchase from Africa and the congestions created at the Chinese ports might delay fresh order shipments.<br />
<br />
Having said all that we know that the Chinese market is a Giant and they know how to bounce back , if the Virus goes away soon enough and they decide to push up the production to replenish the market and build up surpluses we are in for a wild surprise.<br />
<br />
This probably is that most difficult part to predict at the moment and things could move either ways.<br />
<br />
Looking at the worldwide stocks I have a feeling that atleast till May when Indian summer crop harvests we should be range bound despite the above fear. Indian government has still not clarified if the Export Incentives will be available after 31st March or not. If they don't then Indian prices will definitely move upwards by 2-3% Minimum in the coming months.<br />
<br />
Since India is more or less Import dependent at the moment as you saw from the above numbers a slow down could mean that we are also apprehensive in Importing big volumes as well , this could create a strange situation, if and when the demand revives and which probably will coincide with the Chinese demand the African levels may see a sudden spike since both China and India will enter at the same time and the spot markets here might panic even more due to limited volumes.<br />
<br />
Overall I can sum up by saying current levels are pretty attractive for at least 3-4 Months ahead, slow but steady volumes in both buying and selling should yield good returns.I would not suggest Speculating in either Short/Long positions in big volumes, the best strategy would be to have a rolling stock at all times to protect your top line and to at least cover the stop losses in eventuality of swings in your supply lines, the markets may panic anytime which more often than not results in wrong decisions for both spot and futures.<br />
<br />
Someone wise once said "<b>Far more money has been lost by people preparing from Corrections or trying to anticipate Correction than has been lost in taking the Correct decision."</b><br />
<div>
<b><br /></b></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-51784334447952662322019-09-29T22:51:00.000+05:302019-09-29T22:51:08.038+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report Sept 29th 2019<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
Hello Everyone,<br />
<br />
What a time to sit down and write about Sesame. The market is super confused , the weather is super unpredictable and everyone in trade is simply clueless. From the Buyers who refused to touch sesame 2 weeks ago saying prices will fall further to Sellers who were eager to empty their warehouses at any cost ,the tides have suddenly turned upside down.<br />
<br />
If Olympics had a medal for Fear Mongering and Gossip our Sesame fraternity would win it hands down every Time. Our trade doesn't believe in alternate outcomes, each and everyone could give you a look into the future, give out numbers with so much confidence that it can create a self doubt on your own business acumen for a moment. Anyways to each his own , I'll just write my long observations as usual.<br />
<br />
First lets see some numbers which would help up understand the picture better.<br />
<br />
<b>Number Games :-</b><br />
<br />
Let me give out some official numbers first<br />
<br />
Indian Winter Crop Estimates for the last 5 yr<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: black; width: 286px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 65pt;" width="87"></col><col style="width: 149pt;" width="199"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: solid none none solid; border-top-color: blue; border-top-width: 0.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 65pt;" width="87"> Indian Production ( Kharif)</td><td style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: solid solid none none; border-top-color: blue; border-top-width: 0.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 149pt;" width="199"></td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2014-15</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">4,77,000</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2015-16</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">5,07,000</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2016-17</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3,66,000</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2017-18</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">4,18,000</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2018-19</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">1,88,000</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<span style="font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 16px; white-space: nowrap;">2019-20 Take a Guess</span><br />
<br />
Indian Export Import over the last 5 years<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: black; width: 295px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 65pt;" width="87"></col><col style="width: 91pt;" width="121"></col><col style="width: 65pt;" width="87"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: solid none none solid; border-top-color: blue; border-top-width: 0.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 65pt;" width="87"> </td><td style="border-style: solid none none; border-top-color: blue; border-top-width: 0.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 91pt;" width="121"> <br /> EXPORT</td><td style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: solid solid none none; border-top-color: blue; border-top-width: 0.5pt; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 65pt;" width="87"> IMPORT</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; color: black; width: 295px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 65pt;" width="87"></col><col style="width: 91pt;" width="121"></col><col style="width: 65pt;" width="87"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 65pt;" width="87">2014-2015</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 91pt;" width="121">3,75,000</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 65pt;" width="87">43,770</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2015-2016</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3,28,000</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">23,600</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2016-2017</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3,07,000</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">69,000</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2017-2018</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3,37,000</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">26,270</td></tr>
<tr height="21" style="height: 16pt;"><td height="21" style="border-left-color: blue; border-left-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none none none solid; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; height: 16pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2018-2019</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border: none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3,12,000</td><td align="right" class="xl65" style="border-right-color: blue; border-right-width: 0.5pt; border-style: none solid none none; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 12pt; padding-left: 1px; padding-right: 1px; padding-top: 1px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">87,540</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
The numbers above are little confusing because in India the Crop estimates are of Winter Crop in October while the Import/Export Data is from 1st April-31st March of the next year. Let me try and make sense out of these numbers with the exact data that is available with me.<br />
<br />
Indian Export from 1st September 2018 till 30th July 2019 ( 11 months ) ---<b>228,055 MT Export</b><br />
<br />
Indian Import from 1st September 2018 till 30th July 2019 ( 11 months ) ---<b>132,292 MT Import</b><br />
<br />
As we can see from the numbers Indian Exports have dropped drastically and Imports picked up dramatically. If we assume that in the last 2 months Aug-Sept 19 the trend was same we roughly Exported 250,000 MT while roughly Importing 150,000 MT , using just 100,000 MT from our domestic production.<br />
<br />
Since the stock situation is pretty much empty here in India at the moment I would assume we either consumed the balance domestically or in reality the last years crop was not even 190,000 MT that we thought it was, since summer crop of 2019 (Roughly 50,000 )is also not in warehouses.<br />
<br />
It also means that we need our Domestic supply only in small gaps before Imports arrive or in small quantities by factories/Natural Exporters who are not Importing to sustain our Exports while our domestic consumption stands at roughly 100,000 -120,000 MT max on a YoY basis<br />
(Excluding Quantities grown and used for Oil)<br />
<br />
<b><u>Whats happening :- Really ,Whats Happening?</u></b><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I wish I had the answer but like everyone else its all guess work at the moment.The markets were super bullish last year as they should have been since people had Old CarryOver stocks which were paying handsome returns meaning leverage to gamble big and more, also as we saw from the numbers the crop size was ridiculously small.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<u><b>Then Vs Now </b> </u></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
1:- Last years crop was ruined premature due to heavy rains in August, by the time we got to harvesting it was pretty clear to everyone that it was a disaster, Exporters in India sold based on Import Parity from Africa and readily covered too. The markets got stretched to begin with when everyone rushed to cover shorts and stocks ,Once big volumes of Import cargos landed in India the prices just could not sustain the bull run. The trend continued all year long after that. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
The local trade in India understands this well now, they can fire up and stretch the markets to a certain point after that the volumes from Africa just start to pour in and drowses the Fires. We saw a rally of about 60% in Oct-Nov domestically whereas the African markets went up by roughly 30% in that period. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
2:- This year on the other hand the sowing was fantastic to begin with , Sesame at the time of sowing was one of the highest priced commodity , the weather forecast of less rainfall this year was perfect for the Sesame crop ,irrespective of our opinion the farmers are smart and know what they are doing. They were right as reports of beautiful lush fields was coming from everywhere. On the Field trip I saw plants as high as 7 feet and full of pods so the yields should have been Epic this year.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Video Link to watch the Field Trip <a href="https://youtu.be/hPM3Xc0S93U">https://youtu.be/hPM3Xc0S93U</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
3:- Everything was going smooth till Mid September, people were gearing up for a big crop, India started to refuse offers from Africa, Buyers started to refuse our offers in anticipation of the big fall when crop came in. Little forward business happened for sure but unlike last year it was not backed by huge quantity booking from Africa.Everyone thought they could wait and get a better deal later. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
This means that the Ripple effect got negated to quite an extent, last year India was buying aggressively in Africa so their price would go up say $20 , then Indian Suppliers would say see Africa is up we take it up by $30 , we were going round and round in circles for a while.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b>The TWIST :- </b></div>
<br />
1:-<b>From "All is Well"to"What the Hell"</b> Mother Nature suddenly decided it was all too boring, let's get some fun back into the game. So from the Driest July Monsoon we now have the Wettest Sept.<br />
<br />
It started to rain in almost all Sesame Area's from Mid September and continues.I was on a field trip last week and although there was little damage that I witnessed and thankfully since the rains have not been strong in the past week and hopefully should stop in a few days time the damage should be under control even now.<br />
<br />
All this talk and numbers now boil down to the next 4-5 days, If rains actually do stop we might still harvest a good crop, certainly bigger than last year, if they don't or the damage is actually bigger than we fear we might be down to numbers close to last year.<br />
<br />
Its painful that after all the care and effort the farmers fate is decided by this 1 Week.We cannot even comprehend the Pain, The Agony of loosing a good harvest/a standing crop that the farmers will go though if things do go wrong. Let us hope and pray they don't , we still might get our Sesame from somewhere eventually but some poor farmers will go to bed on an empty stomach for a long time.<br />
<br />
<b>The End Game :- </b><br />
<br />
1:- <b><u>Best case Scenario :</u></b>- Rains go away , we find out damage was not as widespread and we harvest a good crop. Good is relative so I shall put out a number to it, 300,000 MT - 320,000 MT is good. Its achievable too in my opinion based on the massive sowing and yields that happened this year.<br />
<br />
<b>Whats happens in Best case scenario</b> is that for short period the Domestic demand will kick in simultaneously with the Export demand and prices may/may-not rise depending on the intensity of crop arrivals at market yards, if they don't then we simply Import less, even if they Do we start Importing Smaller Quantities. Both cases will cool off the prices slowly and stabilise them. Max movement in such a scenario should be Plus/Minus $100-$150/MT either ways.Markets remain range bound , Win Win for everyone.<br />
<br />
<b>Why </b>because Indian Exports have dropped as we have had tough competition from Africa, first it was Natural but now even for Hulled. Our stronghold of Korean Tender has fallen this year and we might not be able to get it back unless we have a huge crop and price ourselves competitively. Pakistan Imports to India are not possible this year so they would concentrate to go direct into our markets and with a much weaker currency might push us out of some too since they have harvested a fairly big crop this year so we actually might not be able to export more in the first place so even this quantity may be more than enough.<br />
<br />
2:- <b><u>Worst Case Scenario</u></b> :- Rains decide to stay a little longer, the damage that they have done is widespread and we get a relatively small crop , say 200,000 MT , that's 50% less than our normal crop of 400,000 MT + and also what people expected so logically speaking its as bad as it gets. Anyone predicting lower than this is either a Genius to have assessed the damager correctly or horribly misinformed about the extent of sowing.<br />
<br />
<b>Worst case Scenario would be more dramatic</b>, we would start booking aggressively from Africa which would shoot up the prices there and the whole running in circles would start all over again, this would ease only after actual cargo's touch down at Indian ports.The next few months would be volatile but then things would cool down as it did last season, with 7 African Origins available for India to buy from ( Nigeria, Somalia, Sudan , Ethiopia , Burkina , Uganda, Mozambique ) we certainly are not going to fall short of Sesame for our Hulling Industry ever. It just takes a little while to get the wheels rolling thats all. Also there is a limit to which Africans can up the prices for Indian demand of say 100-150,000 MT because their prices are not directly linked to us but to the Chinese who buy 10 times more, if prices go up too much the Chinese demand slows down and halts the momentum to create an equilibrium.<br />
<br />
Then ofcourse we have the Infamous " Bengal Double Skin " Sesame, once the prices move above a certain threshold this Oil crushing grades finds it way back into hulling and stops the bull by its horns. <br />
<br />
Even for the worst case Scenario I dont see the markets touching last year's high anytime unless China has something else in mind. With Chinese Imports falling in the first 9 Months, a steady Port stock in excess of 150,000 Mt , a relatively good harvest in China and their New Year falling early in 2020 I doubt they are in a hurry to have more excess good when they can afford to wait.<br />
<br />
There is no Korean Tender quantities left for 2019 so that is off India's back as well for the next 3 months.<br />
<br />
Economy is not moving as fast as expected and with serious liquidity crunch in India the holding capacities are stretched, there is a political uncertainty in Sudan which means they would prefer to do back to back business rather than gambling on stocks. Currency demand in African nations is a major factor for their aggressive sales and I' don't see any reason why that is going to change anytime soon, they need the $'s so the volumes from there should continue to flow out as usual with little hoarding unlike in India.<br />
<br />
I have a feeling if we don't panic we can have a range bound market all year long, definitely not a year to enter the markets when they are on an Upswing or to hold on to goods in anticipation of hitting unrealistic targets and certainly not a market to be greedy and to wait when the prices are on a slide to catch the bottom. Trade at all levels , go slow when prices are shooting up and stay equally clam when they are falling and the averages will be fabulous.<br />
<br />
In the panic rally of last 10 days we are back to levels of 1 month ago and the way forward all depended on the factors we discussed above. Current levels are still not overpriced in short run but also not attractive enough to go long either.<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><span style="color: red;"><i><u>Its ANUGA time again and we look forward to seeing you at our booth.Please do spare some time to visit us. </u></i></span></b><span style="background-color: rgba(20, 29, 38, 0.701961); caret-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: white; white-space: pre-wrap;"><b>
</b></span></span><br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: large;">BOOTH NO- F-038 , HALL- 11.3, </span></i></b></div>
<div>
<b><i><span style="color: #0b5394; font-size: large;">ANUGA FOOD FAIR, COLOGNE </span></i></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-size: large;"><b><i><span style="color: #0b5394;">5th OCT - 9th OCT 2019. </span></i></b></span></div>
<div>
<b style="font-size: 12.8px;"><i><span style="color: red; font-size: medium;"><br /></span></i></b></div>
<b style="background-color: rgba(20, 29, 38, 0.701961); caret-color: rgb(255, 255, 255); color: white; font-size: 15px; white-space: pre-wrap;">Bull markets are born on pessimism, grown on skepticism, mature on optimism, & die on euphoria.</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-82210150644898320262019-05-07T16:05:00.000+05:302019-05-07T16:05:29.777+05:30May 7th Sesame Seed Update :-<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Good Day Everyone,</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With the Summer Crop ready for Harvest I thought it was time again to update.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">After the disastrous Winter Crop in October, 7 months have passed and as expected it was a roller coaster ride with both Bulls and Bears getting their share of action. However comparing prices on a YoY basis we are still in a bullish phase.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at some of the factors for the Up's and Down's :-</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Run up to the Top :-</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- With limited Old stocks and a much smaller Winter crop in October it was pretty must evident that the prices will shoot up, they went up dramatically and crossed $2000 levels for Natural and $2500 for Hulled at one stage despite the USD being weak. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- The panic multiplied as people who had sold forward wanted to cover their shorts and buyers who anticipated further rise covered excess volumes long.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3:- Stockiest saw a good opportunity and soon the market reached a situation where you started fearing defaults from suppliers and buyers practically started a double hedge on their purchase.</span><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Meaning the Importers in India who had booked African cargo for their forward sales also started to buy in India and Vice Versa. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>The Pull Down :-</b> </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- We soon had a situation where prices in India were going up faster than the buyers at destination could adjust to, the low priced cargo's were being sold at a discount which caused a resistance for fresh buying as there was practically no price parity.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- The USD started to strengthen which had a reverese impact on domestic prices as India struggled to achieve global equilibrium.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3:- The Imports finally started to trickle in, now as we discussed these were the double Hedge cargo's which meant that most people now had excess cargo and fresh buying came to standstill as everyone was in a profit booking mode and fresh demand was slow as everyone had already booked excess.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4:- Sudan/Nigeria apparently had a good crop and with China not buying aggressively they shifted their focus to Indian market and fed them without any problem. With the supply lines well defined it got easier by the day and prices cooled down.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With all the factors being played out over the past 7 months the prices still managed to hold steady at a certain level, this showed the strong bottomline resistance due to lack of a big trigger. In commodities it is easier to push up the markets with sentiments alone but to pull back down is harder without a major panic trigger, which usually is physical availability of goods.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Statistics:- Official Government Data (Rounded off)</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <b>2017-2018 2018-2019(Till Aug) 2018-2019( Till Feb)</b></span><br />
<u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u>
<u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Indian Exports</b> 336,850 MT 157,580 MT 286,662 MT</span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></u>
<u><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Indian Imports</b> 26,270 MT 13,360 MT 70,650 MT</span></u><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Assuming the monthly average remains constant for both Import and Export by the end of April 2019 we probably have exported about 325,000 MT and Imported about 90,000 MT.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For exports our volumes are pretty must constant as I had explained in my last report of</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> 5 Nov 2018 in discussion point number 5.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The import numbers on the other hand have seen a sharp increase, averaging about 9500 MT per month over the 6 month period for which data is available.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Bottom line is that over the past 7 months we have exported about 170,000 MT and Imported about 70,000 MT , since Imports are for Exports only I would assume all that we imported is already consumed or is in process and we have consumed about 120,000 MT from the last crop , plus we consumed a minimum of 100,000 MT for our domestic winter demand.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The numbers add up beautifully, IOPEPC as I have said before has been the closest to real crop predictions and the stock situation in India clearly indicates they were right this time too. Domestic supply has practically dried up, there is absolutely no talks of big stocks in any of the market yard with smaller quantities of 50-100 MT max being available with few people.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">If you ask me to put a number on the stocks available in India at Market yard levels I would say in total not more than 25-30,000 MT all 4 major states (UP,MP,RAJ,GUJ) put together, thats about 350,000 bags of 80 Kg Each or about 1200 Truck loads. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Breaking up the numbers even this looks highly unlikely.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Let us play God for a while and try to predict future :-</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Stocks :- </b>Stocks in India and at destinations which can feed India the cheaper cargo's for Hulling are at an all time low. In India we cannot Import to re-export Natural so that factor is inconsequential, having said that even the destination which can provide good quality natural have limited supply.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">New Crop in Africa :-</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The crop in Tanzania look alright, with some contradicting report but there are some doubts over Mozambique crop. Overall nothing drastic that can create a panic or cool down the supply lines.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Summer Crop In India :-</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The crop looks promising as of now, with no major change in sowing numbers or news of damage we are hopeful that the quality and size would be good.If I had to put a number on the size of the crop I would say about 40,000 MT but about 30% of this is Black Sesame and another 20% of Super White Natural which fetches a good premium for domestic consumption and hence too expensive for export parity. Practically speaking summer crop could ,at most supply about 20-25000 MT for export purpose which is about a months volume max. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Port Stock in China :-</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The last news was that their stocks have started to come down slowly, they have maintained a steady balance of about 150,000 MT but with low import volumes coming from Nigeria/Sudan/Ethiopia/Burkina the port stocks are likely to go down and will need fresh buying from Tanzania/India for replenishment as Mozambique crop is smaller.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Imports :- </span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Imports from Sudan/Nigeria/Pakistan/Somalia etc which picked up pace have definitely slowed down, their supply lines are strained and with problems in Sudan and conflict with Pakistan these 2 origins are effected the most.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sometimes I feel we are oddly hypocrital when it comes to Africa, the buyers in first world countries who speak of poverty and hunger in Africa have been telling Indian suppliers that their offers are above African quotes, which then prompt the Indian Hullers to try and bargain down prices from African suppliers even further to match their levels and the chain continues. At the end it is the African farmers who gets paid little less eventually.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Anyways having seen all the factors I have a feeling we are exactly in a situation which we were in October. Small Carry overs, Small Crop. The triggers are all but ready and the biggest factor would again be demand.The Export Numbers clearly suggest that volumes have not dropped , consumption has not decreased, infact the markets which were resistant to prices above $2000 levels have pretty much accepted them and slowly but steadily the bottom has moved up.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">A fall in prices means that someone in China would step in and clean up the market, a major increase and India would start buying aggressively in Africa once again, with no stocks domestically to pull it down and no major import volumes expected to land quickly this rally could sustain and could only stop due to profit bookings and lack of demand.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I have given this example to many people and I reiterate again, No one likes to buy the last fruit on display even if you know it will only be available next season, however when the season comes and the display is stocked again with fresh arrivals we all jump in and buy despite the fact that our fridge could be loaded with something else.Human Nature I guess.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I think this is what will happen when summer crop arrives, everyone will buy a little bit irrespective of demand or need.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As for the prediction for the next 150 days till we see the next Winter crop in October, I have a feeling we have about 40 Days of Stable , 40 days of correction and 70 days of UP side left. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The game this year has not been about price at all, for people who made money and those who lost the difference has been the timing of sale/purchase.The exit doors are becoming smaller and smaller and if you are playing safe and trying to catch the top or bottom, chances are you might never get through, on the other hand the people who are working with good suppliers and rolling volumes get more chances to cover losses if the made any and also make a lot of money when that sudden short time spike comes.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the way business has changed over the years I can safely say the Chinese Model of having good at Port/Warehouse/in hand/possession or say near consumption points is far more intelligent than having long term contacts in your books.If you are not covering yourself for spot demand and sudden spikes in prices you are loosing a lot more than your competitor who will eventually take the market share from you weather you like it or not.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">My conclusion would be ,do not be Short, Carry little extra and roll that volume in tandem with supplier prices and do not cut edges with suppliers for small savings, in a product which costs more than $40,000 /FCL saving $500 by choosing the cheapest supplier can end up costing you $5000 eventually.Timing is the name of the game. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">On a personal note I doubt prices will fall to the lows it touched this season . A slow steady increase is more likely to sustain than a sudden rally.Most bearish reasons have already be factored into the current levels apart from the New Crop Arrival pressure. Current levels are a good buy and going ahead expect a slow steady rise ,right upto last season's top levels at best.</span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-size: 13.199999809265137px; text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 18pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We welcome you to visit us at the Anuga </span></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-size: 13.199999809265137px; text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-size: 16pt;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> HALL 11.3 INDIA PAVILION</span></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-size: 13.199999809265137px; text-align: center;">
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Mukul Gupta ( Director)<br />Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd<br />Tel :- +91-131-2615164 , +Mob:- +91-9837084355 , +91-6396010144<br />Email:- mukul@shakumbhri.org<br /> mugupta78@gmail.com<br />Web:- www.shakumbhri.org<br /><br />IFS,BRC & SEDEX CERTIFIED PRODUCERS/EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS.(Since 1996)</span></b></div>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;" /></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-58839816050237139212018-12-10T14:20:00.002+05:302018-12-10T14:20:23.311+05:30Nov 26th Sesame Seed Update:-<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br /><div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">It has been almost 50 days since the new crop arrivals have started.The crop as we all know by now was projected to be small and It is quite evident from the arrivals that the numbers were close to reality .The crop is short by almost 60%. As against 400,000 MTons last year we have a crop around 160,000-170,000 Metric Tons this year. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #002060;">Factors which pushed up the prices in October</span></b><span style="color: #002060;"><b>were</b></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">1:- A smaller crop.Panic from Supply side.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">2:- A much smaller carry over.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">3:- Anticipated domestic demand of India.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">4:- Covering for the forward sales. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">5:- Stockiest being active at low levels. </span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">6:- A very strong USD which moved from around Rs 69/USD to around 75/USD in a short span.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">7:- Anticipated strong global demand.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">However ever since Diwali holidays got over the markets moved in the opposite direction , it was a natural correction which was inevitable looking at the one way movement of prices that happened for 3 weeks.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #002060;">Factors which have made the correction </span></b><span style="color: #002060;"><b>happen </b><b>are</b></span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">1:- Everyone covered their short sales as a Stop loss in a rush.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">2:- Almost anyone who is into sesame trade is now holding some stock , although I doubt the volumes are big since the value and prices are almost double.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">3:- The Rupee gained back whatever it lost which means in Dollar terms the prices are almost same.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">4:- The African imports have started to trickle in which will keep the supply chain well lubricated for the months to come.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">5:- Crisis with money roll over as people bought for their forward sales as well and everyone would like to hold the cargo physically now, also the farmers dumped everything into the market yards as they got a good price for their produce and they need cash upfront.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">6:-Since the markets were moving up so rapidly the buyers in general decided to wait and watch as the destination spot markets were lower than the Import prices being quoted from India.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">7:- Profit booking from smaller merchants who had low price stock.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">8:- Conservative buying by China which had good port stocks and decided to first bring its local prices up to global price levels.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b><span style="color: #002060;">Factors that will stabilize or push up the markets should be </span></b><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">1:- The arrivals have dropped to historic lows, never in the past 18 years of my business have I seen that big producing states of UP/MP collectively put are less than 200-300 MT. Total bag arrivals from farmers are less than 3000 Bags in 2 States almost 20 Major yards put together. Rajasthan and Gujrat are substantially low as well.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">2:- The strengthening Rupee once it stabilizes at around 69-70 range will leave the scope for local prices to rise which will start reflecting in USD quotes made to the buyers.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">3:- People who imported from Africa wanted prices so stabilize in fear of defaults if prices kept rising,with the correction it has made things a little easier and I am hopeful that defaults from Africa will not happen in a big way, once their cargo gets loaded they will also want prices to go higher as the low priced imports were mostly forward sales but the high priced cargo's are mostly additional quantities. So the bears will suddenly switch side to bulls.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">4:- Since the buyers waited it meant that a window of 2-3 weeks of low purchase happened which must have brought down the destination stocks to bare minimum, once the spot markets empty out the Panic at destinations will kick in.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">5:- With replacement price still remaining high domestically the stockiest will hold on that much longer creating a tight demand supply chain. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">6:- <b>No Buyer at High levels , No Seller at Low Level</b>situation should prevail for all.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">Overall I think looking at the global situation prices are fairly placed for the season ahead, irrespective of trying to catch the Bottom as buyer or Top as a seller it would be advisable to slowly be in the markets at all time to avoid getting into Panic buy/sell situation.Periodic corrections will happen and the movements this year will not be subtle but in 2-3% Range , thats more than $50 up or down at any given time.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">India will have to import Sesame Seed from Africa in large quantities to keep its Hulling factories running and the last Korean tender showed us that the supply will be limited this year irrespective of High prices. In a bullish year with High Prices we always advice to try and buy the best quality, stick to the quality you know best.</span><o:p></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #002060;">We are of the opinion that the Sesame Seed prices will remain firm. With 10 months still to go the chances of UP days are more than the Down Days.</span></div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-66743055102909770552018-11-05T19:21:00.000+05:302018-11-05T19:21:52.613+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report 5th November 2018<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
As we celebrate Diwali the festival of lights , we at Shakumbhri hope that the it brings Prosperity Good fortune and good health to everyone.<br />
<br />
This week almost everyone in India will be busy in festivity and the farmers will take their well deserved break before they get ready to toil again in the fields for their Winter crops , I thought about sharing some information about the sesame market as it unfolded in the last 1 month and try to look ahead at the things that might or might not be.<br />
<br />
In my last report on 16th July 2018 I wrote the following,<br />
<br />
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">"By the time we finish this season and merge into the new 2018 crop we could be closer to levels not seen in a long time, low priced stocks at destinations would have finished and the markets adjusted to new levels. Most commodity traders would agree that when we switch the season on a higher level the price volatility is that much bigger but a crash is highly unlikely because that would mean the whole trade to loose money. Its alright if it happens the other way around when markets open at the bottom and remain their but a crash from high's to low's takes more than just demand to bring it down.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;" /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;"></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">Slow demand at best can keep the markets stagnant or trigger small corrections but a overall bullish sentiment usually prevails , at-least until we reach the top line.</span><br style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;" /><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;"><br /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;"></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">For the season ahead ,Top line in my estimate for good quality Natural Sesame 99/1/1 type is USD 1850-1950 PMT and USD 2400-2500 PMT for good quality Hulled Sesame . Bottom lines should be USD 1250-1350 PMT and USD 1650-1750 respectively. "</span></b><br />
<b><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;"><br /></span></b>
Its almost scary that every word has turned out just as I had thought it would. I guess its my<br />
<b>" I told you so "</b> Moment.<br />
<br />
The new season for 2018 has begun and what a start we've had, levels not seen since a long time in local currency but within range in Dollar terms due to the exchange rates.<br />
<br />
<b>The New Crop 2018 :- </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Till about a few months ago everyone is India expected a good crop, the prices were favourable , the weather just right and the general sentiments and logic told us that the sowing should and would be better than previous years , all was good until Mother Nature decided otherwise , it rained and it rained and it rained , surprisingly all the more in the sesame growing regions. Farms got washed away , the farmers decided they've had enough ploughed the fields and left the little surviving crops in the field to wither and rot away. The few areas that survived is all that we had left. I heard contrdicting informations from different people so I decided to make a long 3 Day field trip to the sesame growing areas in the last week of September. What I saw was exactly what was told , the high altitude fields survived but the rest was in a mess , the yields per Hectare reduced drastically as rains or lack of it when needed shunted the growth. Long story short we were not going to have a crop that we needed.<br />
<br />
Last week our Trade association IOPEPC came out with their survey numbers , the numbers shocked some and reaffirmed others conviction in the crop size.<br />
<br />
Madhya Pradesh ( MP ) :- 22,500 MT<br />
Uttar Pradesh. (UP). :- 41,500 MT<br />
Rajasthan :- 40,000 MT<br />
Gujarat :- 38,000 MT<br />
Others <u>:- 36,000 MT</u><br />
Total 178,000 MT<br />
<br />
Now last year i.e Oct 2017 this Number was 418,000 MT and the year before i.e Oct 2016 was 560,000 MT . We, myself including debated those number furiously, but now since the carry overs are down to almost Zero those number make sense. We would not have exported 30,000 MT monthly if we didn't have those numbers since the domestic demand alone uses up about 150,000 MT annually.<br />
<br />
Let us assume the predictions are off by 10% , we still end up below 200,000 MT . The Carry overs would not be more than 10-15,000 MT by any calculations and we can easily discount that as we would anyways have that much minimum going into next year even if prices double or tripled.<br />
<br />
We will still need about 150,000 MT for our domestic consumption , that demand is price elastic and even with a demand fall of 10-20% it hardly makes a difference as that would be substituted by some speculator stocking.<br />
<br />
That leaves us with practically nothing to work with, all we can do is wait for Imports to come in and offer our buyers based on that. The next crop pressure will not be before May 2019 when the summer crop and the Bengal crop comes in.Can the world wait up its consumption for the next 7 months, I don't think so, and even that comes with " *Conditions Apply " about the size and demand.<br />
<br />
All of being in food business for various commodities know this very well , price is a deterrent in consumption only for a while then people stop caring. Which commodity ever have people stopped eating because it got expensive or which they ate up too much just because it was cheaper. Doesn't really work that way, at least I never believed it did. You can go through my blogs 10 yrs ago and I still maintain that demand merely shifts (from Seller/Origin/Quality/buying pattern/stock levels) but never falls.<br />
<br />
If our sales our down it just means our clients are not buying but someone else's client is buying and people still consuming. Clients and consumers are two different entities , so lets not confuse the two.<br />
<br />
Ever since the crop came out and caught everyone by surprise the discussions have gone up, not because we have spare time at hand but because after many years the markets lacked a clear direction, we need to go through some of the discussions and draw our own conclusions to the road ahead, we are just a month into the crop and with 11 Months still to go it is going to be a eventful year.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The Discussions :-</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Everyone is entitled to make his/her own assumptions on the current situation ,as always I leave it on you to conclude the outcomes of each.<br />
<br />
1:- The demand will drop drastically, people will stop eating sesame and prices should correct. True to a certain level I would say but can a 10-20% drop in consumption substitute the 50% shortage in crop that India has. Will a smaller Myanmar crop ( No data to verify though) not play its part , will the bullish stockiest not create a shortage by hoarding , can it mitigate the lost cushion of carry overs that the trade enjoyed for the last few years .<br />
<br />
I say that again with conviction , drop in demand is very different to drop in consumption.<br />
<br />
2:- There were talks about global trade balance at our Annual meet , numbers of big African crop were put out , they might be right they might be wrong, we shall find out soon enough , the argument was that the world needs X amount of Sesame and the total production is also X so why the panic , easy maths right.<br />
<br />
Thats what we have been told over the decades by Big corporates that there was a surplus production of a certain commodity at origin , prices should crash but at the same time there was a region in the world which starved and went to bed empty stomach. So the point is, if there are 10 people and 10 apples its easy to assume that each should take 1 and sanity should prevail but thats hoping for a Utopian society. Chances are that someone would try to eat 2 apples or one of the apple would Rot.<br />
<br />
The global trade is not just about having something , its also about having it at the time when you need it most. Before or After are risks that need to be factored in.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> Murphy's law</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> is an </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Adage" style="background-image: none; color: #0b0080; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none;" title="Adage">adage</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> or </span><a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Epigram" style="background-image: none; color: #0b0080; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px; text-decoration: none;" title="Epigram">epigram</a><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> that is typically stated as:</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif; font-size: 14px;"> </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif;">"</span><b style="color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif;">Anything that can go wrong will go wrong</b><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: sans-serif;">".</span><br />
<br />
<br />
3:- Ever since that I have joined business the first argument of Bulls was " Africa/China has a bad crop and we have a good crop that means prices will go up ", now some people are arguing<br />
"India has a bad crop but Africa has a good crop that means they will flood India with their cargo and prices will crash ".<br />
<br />
In Isolation the statements sound right but when you read the two in totality the logic is bizarre. Agreed that African cargo will come to India but does that mean they will sell it cheap to us , does everyone have access to that cargo , will in arrive in time to create enough pressure to trigger a fall , Africa of 2019 is not what it was 5 years ago , they are not isolated with the global prices and demand anymore , 60% of African trade is handled by Indian Brokers/Exporters who organise/finance the trade between Africa and China, with 1 more NET BUYER in the markets they would know where to move the goods to get their African suppliers the best value for money.<br />
<br />
4:- Carry over's world over are at all time low , for years we talked about Chinese port stocks but failed to acknowledge that India had its own "Cushion stockpile " , the only difference was while Chinese stocks were measurable the Indian stock was fragmented into 100's of Big/Small stockists and was never in the limelight. However the power of that stock is what we saw last year , despite a poor crop it kept feeding the market with full vigour and at all levels and practically stalled the prices for a good 6 months , it was only after June/July when the warehouses really started to empty out did the markets manage to gain pace.<br />
<br />
With that Arbitrage gone of low levels stocks which usually by now would have triggered a profit booking spree and pulled the prices down the markets seem to be moving in one direction.<br />
<br />
5:- The export numbers of Indian sesame have been stagnant in the range of 300,000 MT annually ( Plus/Minus 10% ) over the last decade or so , I always wondered why?<br />
<br />
While African exports moved up twice thrice in Quantum we remained stable , I guess the difference was while India adjusted itself to the worlds demand of Food Safety/Better Quality and Services , smaller things like Sorting Natural for Bakery Consumption , Palletising the cargo to save costs at buyers end , cleaning the Natural for better yields at Chinese/Taiwanese/Malaysian Oil mills, the Africans at the same time were doing FARM to CONTAINER business. They pumped in the supply chains not for the end users but to the Industrial demand of China/Vietnam etc.<br />
<br />
Lately they have started to catch up in the Hulled/Sorting business as well but the transition will still take a while , the fascination from Volume Business to Value Business is a tough call for most business houses to make , it sometimes requires not just a change in mindset but the whole business model itself.<br />
<br />
Having said that , the end use market of the World still depends lon India to a great extent for supplies, yes there are options available but not everyone has access to those at all time and neither are the options big enough to replace India in a flash.<br />
<br />
The stocks at destinations are also at all time low , usually in a Bull markets we saw 2 Scenarios pan out<br />
<br />
a:- Markets went up in India , we quoted high levels so the buyers went looking for cargo in the spot market , they found someone who had stocks at low levels and he decides to book profit at current market price and offered lower. The buyer now has cargo at low price so they could afford to wait up which caused panic in the markets and prices dropped.<br />
<br />
b:- The same scenario played out domestically as well , as soon as markets went up there was someone sitting on low priced stocks who decided to discount and take home the profits , with price differential the market parity mismatched.<br />
<br />
All 2 scenarios created a Cat and Mouse situation, usually it played out just the way it should but this year with historic low carry over the situation may just pan out differently.<br />
<br />
6:-A seller offers his clients X price, the client has several options and decided to take the lowest price from a new Broker/Supplier , this creats a doubt in the genuine sellers mind, he thinks that market is not accepting X levels and we must move down , in another scenario the lowest bidder (Profit booker) with X-1 tried to make a sales pitch to a client and the client decides that since the volatility is too much I will stick to my regular supplier who has X price and leaves the lowest bid.<br />
<br />
Now the Lowest bidder is thinking that markets are not accepting his levels even though he was cheaper that the benchmark price so there must be a downside in the market while the Regular Exporter is thinking that I offered a fair price and it got accepted so market is firm.<br />
<br />
If you have already experienced this situation then you are definitely in a Bull year already.<br />
<br />
<b>Arrivals and Stocking :-</b><br />
<br />
The real arrivals picked up only around 5th November onwards, in the 4 states of UP,MP,Gujrat,Rajasthan it peaked to about 35-40,000 bags , thats about 3000 MT , even with the peak its averages about 80-85,000 MT over the last 30 days which has already arrived in the markets.<br />
<br />
Stockist took some , the forward sales of Oct/Nov would have consumed some, the domestic demand will eat up a big chunk as well, assuming after Diwali the trend continues( I highly doubt it would , arrivals may peak for a few days at best) for the next 45-50 days i.e till Dec 31st we shall have a 100,000 MT more.<br />
<br />
Assuming the bears are right , the buyers refuse to buy a anything at high levels even then by the wildest of calculations we shall have at beat 100,000 MT stocks split between 1000 Stockiest spread over 4 states in India for the next 9 months , good luck trying to bargain and reason with them.<br />
<br />
<b>African Crop/ Imports into India :-</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Easily the most important factor in Sesame trade over the next 11 months. The crops coming in Ethiopia , Sudan , Nigeria , Burkina , Mali all seem good, so they say.<br />
<br />
Ohh wait, wasn't this the exact situation last year , click on the link<br />
<br />
<a href="https://sesameseedmarket.blogspot.com/2017/11/sesame-seed-market-report-november-30th.html">https://sesameseedmarket.blogspot.com/2017/11/sesame-seed-market-report-november-30th.html</a><br />
<br />
Just scroll down to <b style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">The African Story so far :-</b><br />
<br style="caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;" /><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34); color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">The Sudan crop which was expected to be bigger .......... ( You can edit a few things as per the information you have)</span><div>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><span style="background-color: white; caret-color: rgb(34, 34, 34);"><br /></span></span></div>
<div>
The only thing that has changed is India's buying volumes from African and the sheer desperation of Hullers in India to look for cheap cargo's worldwide to make cheaper Hulled Sesame to supply to the most High End Quality Conscious Consumer markets across the world. Irony at its best.</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Double Skin Bengal Sesame had been a bottleneck for any price rise in the past 3-4 years , everytime the markets went up a surge of supply from the Double Skin lobby pulled it down by discounting 10-15% , they did a remarkable job in turning a inferior quality seed to a pretty good one , sheer hardwork I must say, but sadly that is not the case this year. With a very small crop the Hullers have to fight it out with the Oil Industry to get access to that cargo and it certainly won't come cheap. The Oil Industry is far more cash rich and price neutral compared to the Hulled Sesame Industry.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Currency and economic situations in Africa continue to play its pivotal role , with things changing by the day it is almost impossible to predict the impact on commodities they Export. Sudan's economy is in a turmoil , you never know which sanctions may get applied tomorrow or may get relaxed </span>day after , the daredevils who can risk thousands of dollars will continue to work and on good days make money and on bad days take it with a pinch of salt but the conservative markets will continue to look for safer options in the meantime.</div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><b>Facts and Theory :-</b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">1:- Fact is ,India has a short crop</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">2:- Fact is , carry over stocks worldwide are at their lowest in decades</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">3:- Fact is , for the first time in History Indian Exporters did not rebid for Korean Tender, they decided to stand firm and even though there was profits to be made at higher levels if they held physical stocks they decided they did not want to sell cheaper than a fair market price. All this not because they thought their stock would fetch them higher price , someone should have </span>chickened out and Bid low but not 1 did. Why, because you only sell below market price if you think you can cover again both in terms of price and volume. Neither of the two looked easy so they stay put and decided that we shall not offer below market price. </div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">4:- Fact is , In Rupee terms the prices are at 3 years high , with the next barrier only 10% away a breakthrough might take it to levels never seen before , a crash at best may stabilise it in the range 10-15% from the peak.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">5:-Fact is , Cash flows are tight , with all 80,000 MT arrivals so far sold/bought/stocked tight the cashflows have been tight , after Diwali the cargo's will start moving into Bank financed warehouses which would free up a lot of cash for spot buying.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">6:- Fact is , Low priced averages have already been rotated twice/thrice for profit bookings , the cargo are now headed out which means the bottom average of the market has moved up, with higher bottoms and even higher spot the average prices of stocks are bound to rise , for the Bears to imagine a fall it would mean that 90% of trade would make a loss , once again not a real believer of that theory. Their will be windows of exit, the smarter one's will get an opportunity, the greedy one's will get stuck.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">The same goes for buyers, anyone trying to find the bottom may just fall out of breath while the one's who average out at all levels going up as well as down may float merrily the whole year.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">7:- In Theory , USD to Rupee will be interesting to watch , if the Rupee falls it would make the Imports expensive which in turn will fuel the local prices to move up in </span>tandem. Funny situation we find ourselves in this year.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
8:- In Theory the African crop is huge, but thats always been the difference between India and others.While we try to push markets up telling we have less the others first cover themselves by telling you they have enough , no hard feelings , that really is the way it should be with smart business.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
9:- Fact is, We still have 11 MONTHS to go. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Once again wishing everyone a Very Happy Diwali, Please feel free to contact me for Business or General discussions.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Attaching a link to a funny video one of my dearest friend in Canada sent me years ago. Before you watch just remember ,in your mind replace</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Indian = Your origin ( As a Buyer )</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Chinese = Your Seller ( His Origin )</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<a href="https://youtu.be/ITwPzduUmCw">https://youtu.be/ITwPzduUmCw</a></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Please do not get offended if you don't like the ethnic touch, its just for fun.</div>
<div>
<br />Mukul Gupta ( Director)<br />Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd</div>
<div>
India.</div>
<div>
An IFS, BRC and SEDEX Certified Company Manufacturer.<br />Tel :- +91-131-2615164 , +91-131-9219415164<br />Mob:- +91-9837084355 , +91-6396010144<br />Email:- <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="https://www.blogger.com/null">mukul@shakumbhri.org</a>,<br /> <a class="moz-txt-link-abbreviated" href="https://www.blogger.com/null">mugupta78@gmail.com</a><br /></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;">Disclaimer : - All of above is just observations and general market news , decisions you take based on the above are entirely yours.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-14421846323970939182018-07-27T18:17:00.000+05:302018-07-27T18:17:04.156+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report/Korean Tender July 16th 2018<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Hello Everyone , </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">How many times have we ,The sesame people used McDonalds as our business reference. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> For, "What do you do?Sesame , you mean Oil ? " the "Oh , you know those small pearly seeds on top of McDonald burgers" always worked.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">I didn't even know they made a movie about them till a few days ago. <b>"The Founder"</b> , if you've not seen it I suggest you do ,It's not everyday that they make a movie based on Food Entrepreneurs.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What really caught my fancy was the sales pitch of Ray Kroc,the man who made McDonalds famous</span><br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: blue;"> “Increase supply and demand follows” .</span><span style="color: #6699cc;"> </span></span></h4>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">How true is that , all these years we've been taught otherwise, while the market leaders always saw it differently.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For years we concentrated on the Micro economics of our trade and ignored the Macros. The world demand and consumption doubled over the past decade and so did the production. China at the moment is Importing around 10,00,000 MT plus apart from its own production. I read online that their per capita consumption is about 1.1 Kg/Person annually ( the numbers add up too ). Convert China number into oil and consumption number is about 500 ml/Person per year. Half a Liter per year thats it , thats average 1 bottle per household per year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><b style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">AS PER FAO AND WHO, INDIA’S PER CAPITA TOTAL FAT CONSUMPTION IS 45–50 GRAMS PER DAY PER PERSON (18 Its per Year )WHICH IS MUCH BELOW THE AMOUNTS CONSUMED BY WESTERN COUNTRIES (100–150 GRAMS PER DAY PER PERSON, (35 Itr per Year).</span></b><br />
<b style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><span style="color: #333333;">Agreed these are all Oil seeds put together and one oil cannot replace the entire food chain but look at the numbers we have here , Imagine the scale and scope for growth. Our industry could grow two folds in matter of years without even making an effort.</span>In India the sesame consumption I assume would barely be few hundred Grams per year per person.</span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">“We really don't seem to understand what exponential means. Things move slowly at first and then curves up amazingly”</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"> </span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">It’s all about the supply side. African nations increased their supply and china kept buying more and more,a whole consumption pattern was created with increased supply chain. Hope the Indian Domestic market catches up soon, if anyone has ideas please feel free to share and discuss.The future looks bright.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Anyways thats all general chit chat, lets move to things that concern us in short term.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Korean Tender, Carry over stocks and the New crop 2018.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Korean Tender 16th July 2018 :-</b></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">India as usual got the bigger share , the total bids for 10,000 MT were about 19,000 MT. The bids usually are not a indicator of stock in hand as people sometime double bid the same quantities at different prices and some short bid as well. Overall I think this was a well covered Tender since the price movements were already factored in. As soon as the dates finalized the prices started to move up and people averaged their purchases, this should have given the bidders a fair leverage to take home the profits with the volumes that were on offer. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Koreans most probably should be out with 1 or 2 tenders more as they still need about 15,000 MT more to cover their 2018 buying quota. The timings would be critical though.I doubt they can wait till November so if they are in the market before it would clash with peaked domestic demand due to Diwali Festival and limited arrivals as sowing has been a little late overall. A tricky situation indeed.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>Carry Over Stocks :-</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></span><span style="color: #333333;"><span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">For donkey years we have been crying wolf about the carry over stocks but no one ever has been able to judge the depth and size of the stock pockets. The cargo keeps flowing and flowing and flowing. This year however for the first time I've realized that stocks indeed are at all time low. Yes people are still holding on to little quantities here and there in anticipation of another rally but the volumes are pretty evident.Material is available but it has a clear price tag to it , days of distress sale are over.The stock now is in financially strong </span></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">hands, since most of the commodities were down all year people booked profits at every levels they could .</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The forward trade that happened rampantly was based on these old carry overs , someone holding 100 MT could speculate to sell 200 MT new crop forward since he knew he had something to fall back on if anything drastic happened , its was a physical hedging done at market yard level based on which the exporters could then do the same thing and offer forward into new crop with the seeds still in farms. This chain I think this year would be hard to maintain , of course there would be some daredevils who would speculate openly but thats a gamble which only a few can manage.Its a head/tail kind of deal between the supplier and the buyer and one of those two is sure to loose.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The road ahead for atleast 2 months , I'm saying 2 because by 30th Sept even though the arrivals may be huge, the crop news will be an open secret and will leave little chance for the stocks to make any real big impact , but for the next 60 days the stocks are the market movers for sure.I have a feeling that we will see atleast 20 days of Upward trend and a few days of stable + downward trend in this period. The stable and downward would be mostly slow demand driven while the UP days would be actual demand or speculation driven. With the tender out of the way we still have the hulled demand which continues. Going by the past numbers we would need about 20-25,000 MT per month at bare minimum for exports i.e about 40-50,000 MT till Sept 30th to be physically processed and moved out.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">At the moment almost every sane exporter will have a little plus stock, the levels could vary as to when they actually bought it, like I said above, profit booking happened at all levels so the low level stocks are mostly accounted for and most of the cargo in hand will be of a fairly higher average. That means we are almost in the zone of back to back pricing which leaves little scope for under cutting and price competition at large scale.Some buyers who supported their suppliers all year round with consistent orders are sure to be the best beneficiaries, they would get the best deals possible which would further enable them to out-price their competitors in the longer run.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Carryover/Port Stocks at China is also a major factor, everyone keeps a track of that like they do of his own warehouses. So they should too, it definetly gives a fair idea about the consumption as well as the Import arrival pattern of China. However it is fairly difficult to judge the impact based on its volume , sometimes the port stocks may go down below 100,000 MT and yet the market doesn't move and sometimes its above 150,000 MT and we still see the China buying aggressively.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">What's interesting is the timing of <b>"Stock Price" viz a viz "Current Purchase Prices"</b> </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">at Origin. For a consuming platform like China it is inevitable that they will have huge stockpiles of cargo all the time , its just plain volume business. Some Importers in China probably move more FCL's on a day than the number of Sesame Pallets an average European/American company in a business day. Thats the scale I'm talking about.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Simple business sense tells us that if the stocks at of low levels at <b>consumer end</b> it is better that at Origin prices are high, it helps move the stocks faster and at better levels , while if the stocks are of High levels the low/stable prices at Origin are better because it helps in rolling over the stocks with a better average price. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Right now after a long long time the stocks in China are all relatively low price levels , which means its better for them if the origins stay firm .They can move stocks quicker and with better margins while slowly bringing the market prices up to a levels where they can again cover at current levels. The cycle keeps repeating itself over and over again both ways.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">The winter origins of China purchase like Ethiopia, Nigeria , Sudan , Burkina , Mali etc are all rumored to have little stocks, the only origin where crop was harvested recently was Indian Summer crop , Tanzania and Mozambique.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Indian summer crop got cleaned up faster than it arrived as prices were attractive , Chinese buyers knew about certain quality and quantity problems with Tanzania/Mozambique and Indian exporters were eager for volumes. Worked well for both I would say , after a long long time we saw back to back business happening smoothly and with mutual benefit.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;">Talking about carry overs and stocks at other destinations I would assume there isn't much anywhere. In a dull market (Period of Jan'18-May-18) I doubt anyone was speculating on a big rush and was hoarding sesame. Yes there could be a few but thats definitely not a reflection of the whole market. Most people were back to back and now have a chance to sell at a fair price.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>The Season ahead :-</b></span><br />
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Like I said above prices being high at Origin has its own advantage and disadvantage. The good thing is that goods at destination move faster the bad thing is that orders for the Origin slow down. Everyone wants to first book their profit , watch carefully and then enter. Everyone is looking for sweet deals.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">India over the years has become a reluctant seller. Everyone wants to double their investments in 1 seasons cycle. This is the reason that even a increase of about 40% from the seasons low seems small to the stockiest.The Indian story starts and ends with less sowing more rainfall , sometimes I get a feeling that people here actually pray for less crop concentrating on profits to be made on their stocks rather than focusing on the bigger picture of world demand/supply.If you argue in India about a huge crop the chances are you will be countered negatively, strange but true. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The sowing as I have always maintained varies to a limited extent depending on farmers preference and commodity prices.Usually sesame sowing areas are not feasible for a variety of crops but the farmers as we know are amazing people , if they get to it they can do the impossible.In recent times we did see the Sesame sowing area stagnate or reduce due to better prices of pulses but with reversed trends we are hopeful that has changed this year.Sporadic rains continue to be a mystery as it can change the volumes drastically within weeks. Till last weeks the areas that were almost dry are now water logged , paddy and other Kharif crops have that advantage of late sowing and late harvest which sesame doesn't.Rarely have we seen Re-sowing of sesame once the initial sowing fails.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">However I am hoping this year of a better harvest than previous years , putting a number right now would be shooting in the dark.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The carry overs as we discussed are at bare minimum , the carryovers give a physical hedge every year for forward trade as well as stabilizing the markets for sudden demands such as " Indian Domestic sales for Winters". The short bursts of demands are controlled and catered by stocks in hand, with nothing to fall back on the new crop 2018 will always be under pressure.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">There is another Korean Tender rumored before September . A tender before new crop would for sure empty the exporters as unlike local stockiest they would not be carrying Natural Sesame stock into the new season. The would mean almost everyone would be in to cover stocks for new season from Day 1 .</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">The "Bengal Double Skin" Hulled which has been a controversial product over the years but has evolved beautifully to cover the "<b>Low Priced</b>" but "<b>Good Looking Seed</b>" markets with no real concern for food safety or taste will take a hit this season. The bengal crop was stated to be less by about 30% which means the excess quantity they had to offer to the hulling units is gone and their prices up. The oil industry had first rights to this double skin quality and it has started to show already with prices rising quickly. This means a lot of factories will shift back to white sesame raw material ,</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">volumes could be as high as 40-50,000 MT Annually ,</span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">the low priced cargos will not be available readily means at destinations everyone to have level playing field. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">By the time we finish this season and merge into the new 2018 crop we could be closer to levels not seen in a long time, low priced stocks at destinations would have finished and the markets adjusted to new levels. Most commodity traders would agree that when we switch the season on a higher level the price volatility is that much bigger but a crash is highly unlikely because that would mean the whole trade to loose money. Its alright if it happens the other way around when markets open at the bottom and remain their but a crash from high's to low's takes more than just demand to bring it down.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Slow demand at best can keep the markets stagnant or trigger small corrections but a overall bullish sentiment usually prevails , at-least until we reach the top line.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">For the season ahead ,Top line in my estimate for good quality Natural Sesame 99/1/1 type is USD 1850-1950 PMT and USD 2400-2500 PMT for good quality Hulled Sesame . Bottom lines should be USD 1250-1350 PMT and USD 1650-1750 respectively. </span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Natural above $2000 and Hulled above $2500 is a possibility but the exit windows will be too narrow at any given time.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Factors for Top Line :-</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- Low Stocks and empty warehouses.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- Relatively less new crops compared to previous years in India,China ,Myanmar & Africa.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">3:- Good domestic demand in India.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">4:- USD movements against currency of Exporting countries.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">5:- Triggers like general bullish sentiments and stock situation at Chinese ports.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Factors for Bottom Line :-</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- A relatively huge crop as compared to previous years at all origins.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- Less stocking due to high prices.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">3:- Back to back business resulting in stagnant and spread consumption patterns.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">4:- USD movements against currency of Exporting countries.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">5:- Chinese port stocks replenished periodically or huge inventory built up.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">To sum up we have a feeling it is going to be a good year both in terms of prices and movement of goods. The Sesame market has matured tremendously over the years , the supply/demand lines well identified.What goes where , who buys what , what is available when, are all chalked out. The smaller things can create nuisance for a while but in a larger prospective China remains the KING,Africa remains the volume supplier and India remains the trusted supplier of Hulled, Sortex Sesame , market information and Gossips.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Please feel free to comment/correct/share just refrain from passing this as your own report.Giving due credit is important.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Regards</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Mukul Gupta</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Director</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;">India.</span><br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br />
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span><span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div>
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<br />
<div>
</div>
<br />
<div style="-webkit-text-size-adjust: auto; -webkit-text-stroke-width: 0px; color: black; font-family: -webkit-standard; font-style: normal; font-variant-caps: normal; font-weight: normal; letter-spacing: normal; orphans: auto; text-align: left; text-indent: 0px; text-transform: none; white-space: normal; widows: auto; word-spacing: 0px;">
<div style="margin: 0px;">
<span style="color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-13742056301920889272017-11-30T18:28:00.000+05:302017-11-30T18:28:08.100+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report November 30th 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Good Day Everyone,<br />
<br />
The sesame season in India after a dull start finally got all exciting. Cheers to the bulls who've patiently waited for almost 2 seasons for something to happen. The Bears nevertheless are not ready to give up so easily either.<br />
<br />
The crop size as per crop survey done by our council was around 330,000 Mt for the 4 Major producing states of U.P , M.P , Rajasthan and Gujrat. Like I said in the previous report this was a safe number but we will have to see if the safe numbers really stand ground this time.The quantities were more or less evenly distributed between the 4 states , however the survey suggested that M.P has the biggest crop which is again debatable.<br />
<br />
<b>Arrival Trends since 1st October, 2017</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The first arrivals started a week before but we can discount those at the quantities was barely 100-200 bags put together,which is roughly 10-15 MT.The bigger quantities started from Oct 1st, there was a 5-7 days break in between due to Diwali holidays and of course each of the Market Yard follows a 6 day week.<br />
<br />
So from the last 60 days , let us discount 8-10 Festive Holidays and 8 Weekly holidays, so total number of working days is 45.<br />
<br />
<b>Uttar Pradesh (U.P) Arrivals </b>:- The peak arrivals in the state of U.P have been about 15-16,000 Bags(80 Kg Each) , the minimum so far have been about 5-6000 Bags. Most days it varied between these 2 numbers so a safe average should be about 10,000 Bags.<br />
<br />
(10000 Bags X 45 Days X 80 Kg )/ 1000 = 36-38,000 MT<br />
<br />
<b>Madhya Pradesh(M.P) Arrivals :-</b> The numbers should be around the same but the arrivals started a little late and the quantities were higher in the start so factoring that we would assume the total arrivals so far have been about 35-40,000 MT.<br />
<br />
<b>Rajasthan Arrivals :-</b> The arrivals started only around end October and the numbers do not suggest a number more that 7-8000 Bags in average so i would say the arrivals so far must have been around 25-30,000 MT.<br />
<br />
<b>Gujrat Arrivals :-</b> Gujrat arrivals are a mix of locally produced cargo plus a lot of cargo which comes for resale from Rajasthan and MP/UP , then there is a lot of Black Sesame and a lot of Super White Natural which is almost 100% bought for local consumption and some old crop as well . Not factoring all that I would say the arrivals so far must have been in the range of 25-30,000 MT.<br />
<br />
So Total arrivals so far( Rounded off) should be 40,000 + 40,000 + 30,000 + 30,000 = 140,000 MT<br />
in all.<br />
<br />
I could be wrong state wise but I am sure the overall numbers would add up close. Predicting a crop size can have a higher degree of variations but arrivals numbers should not have a variation of 10% at best , so for the Bears lets say the number is 150,000 MT and for the Bulls will keep this number.<br />
<br />
If someone has the exact numbers i would love to have them , you can mail or WhatsApp me.<br />
<br />
<b>Where did all the Sesame Go ?</b><br />
<br />
Average Indian export is about 25,000 MT Per Month which during peak demand months of Oct/Nov/Dec is about 30,000 MT per Month.<br />
<br />
There was a sudden Chinese demand for Oct/Nov shipments which cleaned up a lot of old stocks and of course the new crop. Taking an average 2 week period for preparing and shipment of cargo for export we could safely conclude that a minimum of 60,000 MT has been Exported and another 10-15,000 is ready for export in December.<br />
<br />
This should include the 2100 MT Korean Tender which needs to sail our ASAP.<br />
<br />
As the buyers do book forward I am sure that whatever is sold for Dec is well covered. The cargo although sitting in the factories and warehouses is already sold and accounted for which means it will not make any impact in the market. Agreed that a lot of forward sales was hedged through Import cargo but that is unlikely to come into India before Jan so its safe to assume that Dec shipments at least are all locally covered , the Imports would be extra Incoming or Future Sale Based.<br />
<br />
At a bare minimum anyone who is dealing in Sesame this season if he was remotely bullish would have bought little for stocking which even by conservative numbers should be 15-20% of the arrivals.<br />
<br />
So adding up:-<br />
a:- Oct-Nov-Dec :- Exported/Sold/Prepared/ToShip cargo almost 80-90,000 MT<br />
b:- 15-20% Stocking must have happened at Yard levels i.e about 25-30,000 MT<br />
c:- The domestic consumption from Nov-Dec-Jan should be about 30-40,000 MT<br />
<br />
The domestic consumption would also most likely clean up the old stocks as well since there already is a sizable price differential between the two for quality reasons.<br />
<br />
So adding the above we see that almost everything that has come in the new crop + Carry over stocks is accounted for.<br />
<br />
Many would argue my numbers for Domestic consumption but it really is hard to judge the domestic markets size as things moves locally and in smaller quantities so we need to focus only on what the Domestic Market bought from the actual Arrivals at the Yard.<br />
<br />
<b>The African Story so far :-</b><br />
<br />
The Sudan crop which was expected to be bigger is now looking smaller than last year. The big crop news forced everyone to clear their warehouses and the carry over stocks in Sudan were at bare minimum . Then there is their currency problem which makes the market very unpredictable. A short Sudan crop might mean nothing to the first world markets but in the Middle east markets and lately China it could create some anxiety.<br />
<br />
The Nigerian crop although looking good has its own share of problems. The port congesting in Nigeria has created havoc with the shipments, delays to China means they are forced to look for alternate markets for supply which meant sudden quantum jumps, that may eventually cool down when normalcy resumes with the shipments but i fear it may have already done the damage.<br />
<br />
Ethiopia is expected to have a good harvest , however with contradicting news about the crop being 10-15% less to same as before from different people , the benchmark ECX is trading at levels higher than before so I would assume either the Demand is high or the Supply is short.<br />
<br />
Tanzania/Mozambique had a disaster crop this year and that means their supply to China from Aug onwards was not so heavy as it used to be which is clearly showing in the low stocks are Chinese ports. The Port stocks in China were below 50,000 MT Levels till recently. People argue a lot of cargo is on its way , but doesn't that also mean that a lot of cargo at destination is already out.<br />
<br />
With little competition left to price match them the African suppliers will surely look to get the best value for their product and not offer as cheap as we think they will. Some argue that Africa jumps because India goes up and vice versa , once again its a sweet little bubble we Indians like to live in. Africa now has the quantities , they have big giant Multinational companies and a huge single Market like China and here we assume that we can manipulate all that overnight.<br />
<br />
Well to each his own , Would be interesting to see how Africa play their cards this year , will they crumble under the pressure of Quantity business or will they realize that there simply is no volume competition globally anyways.<br />
<br />
<b>Korean Tender :- </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
The Koreans floated a tender for 3900 MT few days ago which needed to be shipped ASAP , however at the first bidding the total quantities Bid from India were exactly 3900 MT , usually they are 2-3 times higher, in layman terms not many sellers interested. Ofocurse prompt shipment was one of the deterrent but there are surely enough Daredevils in India who would have loved to try their luck or do some profit booking if the opportunity was there. Anyways the bids were too high for the Koreans and they decided that the highest they could take was @ USD 1600 so very smartly bids of USD 1599 were accepted. However interestingly they managed to get only 2400 MT , I don't recollect the last time a buyer like Korea did not get the quantities it needed.<br />
<br />
From Jan 2018 till the next crop even by conservative numbers the Korean Tenders would need about 50,000 MT of cargo.<br />
<br />
<b>Indian Domestic Demand :-</b><br />
<br />
We've had this factor every year in Indian winters and it does make a grand entry trust me you. Last year in November my Prime Minister Mr Modi took a very bold and unexpected step of Demonetization which for atleast a few months created a severe cash crunch , the domestic market focussed on essentials and somewhere in all that frenzy the local consumption suffered. However things are back on track and the domestic demand is booming once again. I think everyone this year almost forgot to factor this major demand in Indian price scenario.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b>The Road Ahead :-</b><br />
<br />
In a bullish trend a lot of cargo will go into stocks in anticipation of un realistic levels and will not come out in a rush so that stocking that has already happened plus the assumed <b>FARMER hiding 40-45% of the crop </b>should be in no rush to sell either. I really don't see where the pressure trigger would be for a huge slide back in near future.<br />
<br />
So from Jan-September technically we should have about 120-150,000 MT Arrivals (<b>Assumed Hidden by the FARMER)</b> +Imports + Summer crop whatever numbers they may be till 2018 Crop.<br />
<br />
In previous years I always said that there is enough in the market to last us the full season but this years numbers really don't seem to add up. Previous years small crop was compensated by the year before's huge carry overs but this time we do not have that luxury and cushion to fall back on.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Another interesting angle is , Since India recently banned Import of a some Pulses , a big chunk of those were being produced in Africa , the big guns there have huge investments and with Pulses out of equation they might be shifting their focus on Sesame since its a fast moving and relatively pricy commodity. Logically thinking its quite a possible scenario.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Indian Hulling Industry in the last decade got sucked into the trap of Volume Trade.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Hulled Sesame Seed ,a product where the price of Raw material is almost 90% of the cost ,to play volume game was simply illogical. Apart from the Salaries and odd overheads there wasn't much to gain or loose. With Volume game came speculations and higher risks for little returns. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
I think the lower available quantities to the Hulling factories will make them realize their old basics again, to concentrate on efficiency and healthy margins rather than speculations and wafer thin margins.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Our Sesame Industry in India have worked really hard on Food Safety and Quality standards and its high time we start using our Experience ,Expertise and Performance to win back our market share rather than striving to be the cheapest.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">What changed since September 2017 so far :-</span></b></div>
<div>
<b style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div>
<b style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: inherit;"> For a bullish market the bulls really need to get all their fundamental's right</span></b></div>
<div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">1:- Low Carry over's CHECK</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">2:- Less new crop CHECK</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">3:- A steady and healthy export demand CHECK</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">4:- A steady and healthy domestic demand CHECK </span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">5:- Funds to hold onto stocks for longer CHECK</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;">6:- Low global availability of the cargo CHECK</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: inherit;">While for the bearish market the Bears only need to get one of the above 6 right and the market either falls or stays put.</span></div>
</div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<b><span style="font-family: inherit;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: inherit;"><span style="color: #222222;">The bears will </span><span style="color: #222222;">occasionally keep getting one of the above 6 triggers right and markets will either correct or move sideways but to make it back into a Bear season they need to get atleast 3 triggers right at the same time for a long period of time , its for everyone to make his own assumption now.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 13.199999809265137px;">
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-19291932923398956522017-09-25T14:40:00.000+05:302017-09-26T19:17:37.308+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report Sept 2017<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Good Day Everyone,<br />
<br />
Its nice to be back on my blog after a long long time , for all those who are wondering why I was absent , I think I owe them a brief explanation , well firstly there wasn't much to write about in a lack luster season and secondly the Health problems of my beloved Uncle, my mentor, my Business Partner who passed after a long struggle this May. Being in a family run business these things can hit you hard, more than any one can possibly imagine.<br />
<br />
Well but life goes on and here I am back again Hail and Hearty ready for the journey ahead.<br />
<br />
About Sesame now , what can i possible share that all of you already do not know. Hmm..let me start with some numbers.<br />
<br />
<b>World Sesame Production is now close to 4.8 Million MT </b>, yes that 5000 Times 1000 ,<br />
<b>The Top 10 producers </b>would be ( In descending order of production )<br />
1;-India<br />
2:-Myanmar<br />
3:- China<br />
4:- Tanzania<br />
5:- Sudan<br />
6:- Ethiopia<br />
7:- Nigeria<br />
8:- Burkina Faso<br />
9:-Uganda<br />
10:- Niger.<br />
<br />
The Largest of these would be India if I am not wrong producing about 700,000 MT in Total ( All Varieties and 2 Seasons) and Niger should be close to about 100,000 MT. The top 10 would easily be about 75-80% of the worlds total production.<br />
<br />
Well where does all this sesame go then, Let's see. <b>About 2 Million MT is being Exported/Imported</b>,weather we take a Total of the top Importers or a Total of the Top Exporters<br />
it doesn't matter.<br />
<b>The Top 10 Importers</b> would be<br />
1:- China<br />
2:- Japan<br />
3:- Turkey<br />
4:- South Korea<br />
5:- Vietnam<br />
6:- Israel<br />
7:- Taiwan<br />
8:- USA<br />
9:- Syria/Lebanon/Iran/Iraq<br />
10:- Saudi Arabia<br />
<br />
The Largest of these i.e China is Importing close to 1 Million MT alone , Japan and Turkey are at 150, 000 MT and Korea Vietnam around 100,000MT . Thats a total of about 1.5 Million MT in the top 5 Importers alone. The rest of the world is way way way behind at 500,000 MT in total.<br />
<br />
Staggering figures , however these still leave about 2.8 Million MT unaccounted for , whats happening to that quantity? Well i would like to believe that is being consumed locally in the producing area's and also a substantial amount is being exported to Neighbouring countries through border trade like in the case of Myanmar- China or Sudan-Egypt Trade which justifies why those numbers do not show up in the Export numbers. India is exporting about 300,000MT but also consuming as Edible oil and Seed about 400,000 Mt locally.<br />
<br />
While all these years we talked about Sesame on Hamburger buns , breads and Tahina , Sesame Oil has raced away quitely.<br />
<br />
In any case the basic point remains that China is miles ahead of everyone else in its capacity to buy and consume and I think its still not the end of the road. I was in China recently and the general sense I got there was the Chinese are least concerned about the size of their own crop now and are Happy to buy from Africa.As we know the Sesame trade from Africa to China is more than just a commodity Business , it is deeply connected to the Forex exchange and the Import needs of Africa ,which are surely on the rise with each passing day.<br />
<br />
Now to Indian Crop. After a lot of speculations , guess work , manipulations , survey's , statistics ,the trade I think has finally reached a consensous , India will harvest a good crop finally. The numbers will vary but a safe figure would be around 350,000 Mt ( All States combined ). Not a huge crop by any standards but keeping in mind the above stats its more than enough for India. We are still exporting close to 300,000 Mt and the current new crop should be good enough for that. We've had some rains in the past few days which might not have damaged any quantity but have surely delayed the harvest by about a week or so , if all goes well the harvesting will start in a few days time and we expect good arrivals around Mid October and then with a Diwali holiday gap to pick up by End October/Early November again.<br />
<br />
Like I mentioned in one of my reports , India is a almost a Importing country now, for the past 2-3 years we have been more worried about where to source the cheapest raw material in volumes from rather than worry about where to sell those volumes , its a huge market for the Africans and in a weird tangle of being a supplier as well as competitor they are playing the game really smartly. India in the past 4-5 years is being beaten at its own game and with almost 70% of the Natural Sesame Export share already gone we have little to play with. The Korean tender is the last fortress standing for Natural Exports and with African & China eyeing that as well its only a matter of time that it will fall too.<br />
<br />
So what will be the driving factors in the months to come, they remain the same as last year i guess with a few additions. In my last years report I mentioned as follows<br />
<br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>We believe for a bullish market the bulls really need to get all their fundamental's right</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>1:- Low Carry over's</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>2:- Less new crop</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>3:- A steady and healthy export demand</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>4:- A steady and healthy domestic demand</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>5:- Good access to a lot of funds to hold onto stocks for longer period</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>6:- Low global availability of the cargo</b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , "helvetica" , sans-serif;"><b>While for the bearish market the Bears only need to get one of the above 5 right and the market either falls or stays put.</b></span></div>
<br />
Well the bears did get that one thing Right and that was Carry Over's, no one expected that India and the rest of the world would be sitting on such huge stockpiles , the cargo just kept coming and coming and coming. Point 5 came in from time to time as well which held back any rallies that happened.<br />
<br />
This year Point 5 i.e Access to Funds would be a major point at least for India and a 7th Factor which I would like to add would be Supply/Purchase timing. The Chinese are not so erratic in their purchase as they were a few years ago , like any smart and big businessmen they have adapted , they know the exact dates of availability of crop from every major country. They have the volumes behind their back , they know eventually they can dictate the markets the way they want it and its showing.<br />
<br />
Yes of course their will be up's and down's , there will be times of high demand and slow patient waiting but at the end of the Day the one with volumes will make do. Once you have the capacity to move volumes you automatically can average that much faster and work on lower margins.<br />
<br />
Where a Big European company would have an annual volume of 1000 Mt/Year the smallest of Chinese Importer can book that much quantity in a day and move the volumes in matter of weeks.<br />
<br />
Silver lining at the end of all the story is Hulled Sesame Seed still remain the forte of India. We have the expertise , we have the capacity and we have the resources. Unless China suddenly removes the duty barriers and start duty free Imports from India , in which case they would take everything we produce , we are all happy to serve the world with our Hulled Sesame.<br />
<br />
India has for long played the "Elite Bar" game , where the waiter tells you " Last Order Sir" and you panic and order more than you really need just because you don't want to end up short ,the African's quietly and smartly have opened a 24 Hr after party place where anyone and everyone is welcomed at any given time. There is no reason why the Elite Bar's cannot survive , it surely will but some things need to be corrected.<br />
<br />
The Hulled Sesame buyer's sooner or later need to understand that they control the Indian markets now, we have no where else to go , its the bitter truth atleast for the time being. So if YOU don't Panic WE don't Panic. Cargo is available all throughout the year and when someone tries to manipulate the markets with 10-20-30 FCL's 500-1000 Mt go back up to the 4th paragraph and read the global numbers. How long can one do it, How long can one sustain a Rally or a trigger a drop ,now that Big corporates are invested with Millions of dollars into this trade.<br />
<br />
In the recent past the buyer's split their business to smaller players , anyone who wanted to buy 2 FCL's was sending Inquiries to 10 people and waiting for the best offer to choose from , little did they realize that India is a very open market , the 2 FCL inquiry multiplies to 20 and gets blown to 40 so if you only have one purchase per year it would make sense to do it but as a regular you have just triggered the market for your next purchase. What you saved in the first purchase is all but gone by the time you come in again to buy the next one. A quite controlled purchase from limited people would any day be a better option.<br />
<br />
Just like in Poker for a Flush and Straight sometimes you need to see the River card and not act anxious, the other guy might just be holding a pair at best , yes you make loose sometimes but whenever you win ,you win Big. Choice is yours if you want to play against 5 opponents or narrow it down to a 1 on 1.<br />
<div>
<br /></div>
When most of India's trade is based on " I think " &" I have a feeling" the big boys in Africa and China are playing by " I Know " & " I am sure " rules.<br />
<br />
African Sesame is under EU watch and 50% of the cargo's being imported will be checked which means heavy delays and costs for the Importers. To start their pricing may win but when the panic will set it for timely supply I assure you the only option to fall back on is India. The overheads in Imports and the costs people will pay for delayed supply will start reflecting in the books soon enough.<br />
<br />
On a personal note I doubt prices will fall to the lows it touched this season , the reason being a lot of carry over stocks have emptied out and that has eased the pressure , a bullish run could also happen due to this factor but now since Africa is always on Indian stockiest mind it could well fizz away just as quickly. A slow steady increase is more likely to sustain than a sudden rally. My conclusion would be that most bearish reasons have already be factored into the current levels apart from the New Crop Arrival pressure. Current levels are a good buy and going ahead expect a slow steady rise ,right upto last season's top levels at best. So the benchmarks would be 10% above last seasons low's and 5% above last seasons High's.<br />
<br />
I look forward to the pleasure of meeting you at Anuga and serving you this coming season. Please feel free to ask for anything that you need and I shall try my best to serve.<br />
<br />
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: 18.0pt;">We welcome you to visit us at the Anuga Food Show</span></b><b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: 16.0pt;"><o:p></o:p></span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center;">
<b><span lang="EN-GB" style="font-family: "calibri light" , sans-serif; font-size: 16.0pt;"> STALL :- F028 , HALL 11.3 INDIA PAVILION</span></b></div>
<div align="center" class="MsoNormal" style="mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-frame-hspace: 7.05pt; mso-element-wrap: around; mso-element: frame; mso-height-rule: exactly; text-align: center;">
<b>Mukul Gupta ( Director)<br />
Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd<br />
Tel :- +91-131-2615164 , +91-131-9219415164<br />
Mob:- +91-9837084355<br />
Email:- mukul@shakumbhri.org , mugupta@hotmail.com<br />
mugupta78@gmail.com<br />
Web:- www.shakumbhri.org<br />
<br />IFS & BRC CERTIFIED PRODUCERS/EXPORTERS OF SESAME SEEDS.(Since 1996)</b></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-71581677132407140232016-08-26T19:19:00.001+05:302016-08-26T19:19:34.614+05:30Indian Sesame Seed Monsoon/New Crop August 26th 2016<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hello Everyone, </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Its been a long time since I got that urge of sharing my views on Sesame Seed and with the Indian Crop just around the corner couldn't resist.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">First looking back at the 2015-16 crop , must say its been quite a dull and boring year for the speculators but a fruitful one for those who like to do clean and simple business. Yes there were a few spikes in prices, one just at the beginning then a few more but the rally could not really sustain itself for long. We saw the lows of USD 1100-1150 FOB for the Hulled and 3 digit numbers for the Natural but that was momentarily. The markets remained range bound more or less most part the year in the range of $1400-$1500 FOB levels for the Hulled despite a smaller Summer crop.Ocean freights touched all time lows which helped as well.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<o:p><b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Some Export Import Numbers :-</span></b></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Year Export<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010-11 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">398,441 MT </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2011-12 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">389,154 MT</span> <span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2012-13 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">299,482 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2013-14 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">257,443 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2014-15 - 375,656 MT<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2015-16 - 328,429 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2016-17 ( April/May ) - 69,094 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Looking at the numbers despite low prices and a huge supply the Export Numbers actually dipped from India. Strange right? Actually no, if you look at the numbers of April/May the volumes have picked up again , almost at an average of 35,000 MT/Month. I have a feeling a similar number would be for June and July as well. Last years export numbers are less because it was exactly opposite during that period ,April-September 2015 export numbers were less and exports picked up dramatically only after the new crop arrived which balanced the figures.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">What this also tells us that unlike last year the buyer's may be sitting on a substantially good volume of cargo in their warehouse at very attractive prices and patiently waiting to book profit as and when possible. The prices at consuming destinations is relatively stable due to this. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Year Import<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2010-11 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">8,727 MT<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2011-12 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">609 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2012-13 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">38,050 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2013-14 - <span style="color: #1a1a1a;">72,928 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2014-15 - 34,767 MT<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2015-16 - 23<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">,597 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2016-17 - 5,144 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The export numbers also concur with the above situation , the Imports were relatively less and picked up after African destination started offering huge discount parity advantage. Another fact is that some import coming into India is on special request for reexport to special client needs and does not follow the price pattern.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- <b>China</b> crop is being harvested now and from what we've heard its smaller than last year.They had lots of rains and a lost quite a big volume to the rains and the sowing was less as compared to previous years in line with the trend of last few years. Logically speaking that should spur the market there or atleast create a ripple but nothing moved. China is in a different league all together now , they are importing close to 1 million MT of sesame seeds from various global suppliers now and for them the local crop really doesn't matter much as long there is another destination which can cover that void. The trade to china has become so accessible and with so many big players the local crop has taken an absolute back seat in their scheme of things.The port stocks in China are rumored to be at an all time high , some estimate it to be close to 200,000 MT which is like a 3 month consumption buffer stock. Over this their new crop and the incoming imports have really slowed down the trade in China.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- <b>Africa</b> , sowing currently on in various countries and Nigerian crop is ready for harvest. It it rumored to be a good crop, last year around the same time we heard of rumours of some damage to the African crops but nothing much really happened and they had a good harvest. I believe many African countries are keeping a close watch on the situation in China and India and with both rumored to have bad crops the area under sesame cultivation can increase. Past experience shows us how quickly the African nations can add areas to a particular crop , there has been almost a 200-250% growth in sesame volumes in the past decade , thats almost an average growth rate of 20% annually with potential to add more if needed thanks to all the surplus uncultivated virgin landmass they have.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Sesame also serves as a cash crop for the Africans with huge volumes moving quickly , which means more $'s to the nations where the trade is not anymore about commodity but more about who has the $'s in hand for Imports. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">As on date apart from flooding in some parts of Sudan no bad news from any African sowing area. Sudan non the less is sitting on huge stocks from last season and would be happy to sell it out at discounted prices due to steep currency fluctuation there and with new crop just months away it makes perfect sense as well.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3:- <b>India</b> , just like last year the Met department warned well in advance of a good monsoon this year , Sesame of course is not a water friendly crop so we saw a lot of crop shift during sowing at the start of the season. We had estimated that last year atleast 10-15% extra area was covered under sesame plantation apart from the official government sowing area numbers , that swing number is definitely out of calculations this year. Apart from that officially the sowing is less by about 15% as per government data. So at first calculations we can discount that this year's crop will be less by atleast 30% compared to last year. Now coming to the damage caused by heavy rains in the remaining crop. The trade estimates coming from various people involved put the numbers between 30-40%. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #222222;">However frankly speaking I am yet to witness a photographic proof of this. Yes , the rains have been heavy and knowing the sesame plants we can surely say the low lying field or whereever there was water logging the damage may have been severe but to put a percentage number on damage as a total would be too hard. Some fields may have been totally wiped off but some fields which survived will probably compensate for the volume losses by increased yields. My number for average loss would not be more than 20% as a whole. Still that gets us down by 50% compared to last year( 15% Swing Sowing area + 15% Less average sowing + 20% Damage due to Rains) . Thats a huge number and perfect recipe for the bulls. </span><span style="color: #222222;">The new crop is highly unlikely to be available for export before Mid of October.</span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Current Situation and Future Predictions :-</span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<b style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- First the stock situation. Last year we had a great crop, infact it was more than we could handle at one point of time and so we saw the price go down to a 5 year low. It did rebound quickly enough though as those levels looked fairly attractive for everyone to step in a buy/stock a little as per need. However the huge crop made sure that markets remained range bound most part of the year. Everytime our beloved Korean Tender tried to take the market up the warehouse doors would open and suddenly everyone wanted to sell their stocks. The situation i think remains the same at the moment as well , If last years crop numbers were correct India still had a good 60,000-70,000 Mt of stock from last year.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Although this stock is primarily of a higher range but with new crop round the corner profit booking is bound to happen at every jump.Never before has India carried such a huge carry over into the next season. Some estimates put the carry over close to 100,000 MT which I think might be possible as well as its impossible to judge the holding capacity at farm levels and the exact crop size.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">How much exactly is the crop in India actually no one really knows , its just a guess work based on average yields from some farms and area under cultivation as per government data.However I believe it must be accurate to 10% deviation. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Last 4 years official data numbers are as follows</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2012-13 340,000 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2013-14 350,000 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2014-15 470,000 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2015-16 540,000 MT</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">And there are only the Kharif (winter) crop numbers , the Rabi( summer) crop is over and above this.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">So a comparison between last years crop and this years estimate give us a crop of about 280,000 MT (50% of last year) + 60,000 MT of carry over . Total about 340,000 Mt which is back to our 2012 number. Now if you just scroll up you will see this is exactly the number which inspired India to import in a big way. That trend is most likely to be repeated. We will surely import a huge quantity from Africa this year.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">All said and done the question now is why isn't the market reacting the way it really should having seen the facts above. In the past we've seen Indian prices jump $100 on a day to day basis for no reason at all but this time it hasn't been able to do so. Practically everyone is bullish in India at the moment , be it the farmer , stockiest , trader or the exporter but still nothing much has happened. Yes the prices are moving up slowly but not at the pace they should have. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We believe for a bullish market the bulls really need to get all their fundamental's right</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- Low Carry over's</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- Less new crop</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">3:- A steady and healthy export demand</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">4:- A steady and healthy domestic demand</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">5:- Good access to a lot of funds to hold onto stocks for longer period</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">6:- Low global availability of the cargo</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">While for the bearish market the Bears only need to get one of the above 5 right and the market either falls or stays put.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">We think that there is still some confusion over Point 1,3 and Point 6 which is holding back the bull run. Once the carry over stocks reach a slightly low volume and combined with some overseas demand we can definitely witness an upward rally , however even then there is </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Point 6 which could play spoil sport from time to time. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b>Conclusion :- </b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b><br /></b></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The numbers definitely point towards a bullish year ahead , however for all the fundamentals to play out right at the same time is a big ask so for sure there will be checks and balances from time to time. This makes it even tricky as one could easily be caught on the wrong foot by either going short or long at the wrong time. Buyer's could loose out on a lot of business to their respective competitors if they don't have enough cargo at the right price and the right time to sell or could be stuck with high priced cargo in their warehouses with no takers.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Difficult decisions to make which will surely keep all the Buyer's on their toes this time.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Would be interesting to see how the markets move , will Africa follow India's bullish trend or will they be happy/Forced to sell at lower levels just because they have so much more to sell than India. Their prices will surely remain lower than India otherwise India cannot import anything either.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The Domestic demand in India has grown substantially over the years and will start to come into play next month onwards and remain strong till Mid Jan. Their buying patter is erratic and irrational with sentiments playing more importance rather than actual consumption sometimes.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">For India it could be particularly difficult year as Africa might find a foothold in countries where it traditionally has little or no presence. However India still has the advantage and upper hand in terms of Quality and Fair delivery. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Not pointing fingers at anyone , it would not be wrong to say that Africa does have a dismal record on delivery when prices move up beyond a certain range , so it could be that low priced long term contracts may never reach or may reach later than you really need it. Either ways the buyers would end up loosing money and more importantly their respective clients business. We all know the value of keeping our clients intact in today's competitive world, one wrong move and its game over.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Then again we could be totally wrong and things may have changed over the years , this is just an apprehension and comment based on past experiences heard from within the commodity trade. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Our suggestions as always would be not to be a speculator , the swings could be huge. This suggestion is for both long and short. Stick to good and reputed suppliers and not gamble around much in a year which could be highly volatile. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Your good supplier is just as important as your good client these days , its a chain and we are all just links in between so we need to keep the chain strong.Overall I see current levels pretty much close to the base with higher limits open for debate.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The double skin Bengal Hulled might make a comeback this year if the prices go up so my advice to the buyers ,Kindly be extra careful from whom and what you buyer specially in Hulled Sesame Sector. A few 100 dollars saved at the time of purchase may end up being a few 1000 $ claim plus reputation lost by the time the cycle is completed.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">The USD has been fairly stable and hopefully will remain so in the near future with indian economy doing alright at the moment. However the ocean freights which went down to all time lows are bound to go up , infact have already gone up so that needs to be factored in as well for longer view of the market.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal" style="color: #222222;">
<span style="font-family: Georgia, Times New Roman, serif;"><br /></span></div>
</div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com8tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-66381368279005930862016-02-23T19:23:00.003+05:302016-02-23T19:23:43.600+05:30Sesame Seed Situation Feb 23rd<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
<br /></div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
Markets as expected this year were bearish , however the fall has been substantially more that anyone expected. The major factor to this probably is a huge buffer stock that China had at the start of the season and a very big crop in India. The currency fluctuation in India as well as in Africa have impacted hugely to this fall as well.</div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
<br class="" /></div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
Looking at the current situation it is evident that almost all of the trade is stuck with some high priced cargo in their warehouses , some are moving is quickly some waiting for th tides to turn. However i believe in a few months time the stocks and prices will balance out itself and the trade will start to move smoothly. There is little chance of a huge upturn at the moment as few African nation’s will harvest their crops in the coming months and India will also have their summer crop as well.</div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
<br class="" /></div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
The farm arrivals in India have dropped as expected but there is still a huge stock in the warehouses which will easily sustain the little demand that will flow for the next few months, looking ahead i believe there will be some high’s in times to come but i doubt they will be sustainable for long periods. In general terms for the next 6 months , 180 days till the next big crop in China and India is harvested i see more days with stable or falling market than upward movement.</div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
<br class="" /></div>
<div class="" style="font-family: Helvetica; line-height: normal;">
Once again i doubt there is a fall in consumption worldwide its just that people do not want to stock more than they actually need which is keeping the markets bearish. Everyone has their own idea of bottom levels and frankly speaking my levels have already been breached so cannot put a finger on a level where the markets will finally stop at. However at current levels the prices do look attractive and chances of loosing money on stocks at current levels are slim. </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-86899032958225414172015-09-22T16:33:00.000+05:302015-09-22T16:33:16.220+05:30Sesame Seed New Crop 2015<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Hello Everyone ,<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Im sure everyone is already aware , the new Indian Sesame crop is
just around the corner.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Sowing this year has been great owing to some early monsoon
rains and timely news of a low rainfall year. The farmers reacted in time and a
lot of area was diverted to low water crops , sesame ofcourse being one of
them.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The weather to a great extent has been favourable for a
great harvest season , however a fairly long dry spell after Mid August all the
way till now may affect the yields in certain areas where irrigations
facilities are minimal. Having said that the overall increase in acreage might
just negate any such losses and we should still see a huge crop ahead.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">We’ve already witnessed the first signs of that as the
markets have been discounted over 20-25% just on this news alone , the other
factor ofcourse being the Rupee-USD ratios. The values have declined by almost
10% Y2Y basis.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Recently there was a conference on Sesame Seed in China
where big players from all over the globe came and presented their views , just
summarizing that for everyone around who was not there.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>1:- </b>China crop once again has been short , we’ve not seen a
growth year in china for I think a decade now , the area for sesame seems to be
reducing each year and some heavy rains led to further damage. The crop may be
shorter by around 70,000-80,000 Mt compared to last year. However going
by the business and consumption trends of china I’m not really worried about
their crop size anymore, they are the biggest importers and consumers now and no
matter what , they will go out and buy from wherever they find the quality and
prices that suit them best for various uses.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>A few thousand Metric tons<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>more
or less I don’t think makes a difference to them as long as some country in the
world has cargo to offer , weather the cargo comes from their own farm or from
Latin America its not a big issue anymore as the trade now is much more
organized.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>2:- </b>The Chinese imports<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2013<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span>- 440,000 MT<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2014<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> -</span> 570,000 MT <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>2015(Mid June)<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>- 430,000 MT <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">This means that they have good 6 months to cover the balance
140,000 + any shortfall they see in their crop + annual growth , which explains their slow buying
pattern in the recent past. The carry over stocks are also fairly good for them
to sustain till the end of the year where they can wait and watch the new
African crop’s coming in and deciding to step in at the levels they feel
comfortable from the origins that suits them best.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Similar numbers for Japan were also projected . <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2013<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span>-
140,000 MT<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2014 <span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span>-
170,000 MT <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2014( Mid June)<span style="mso-tab-count: 2;"> </span>-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>95,000 MT (Approx )<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Japan is also assumed to be fairly good on stocks and is not in a rush to enter the markets.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>3:-</b> Myanmar crop has always remained a mystery in terms
of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> s</span>ize and exports due to the border
trade with China but rumors have it that their crop is also less than previous
years due to heavy rainfall however those numbers are always debatable and its
hard to predict what effect they will have on the global situation.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>4:-</b> African producing countries in East and West Africa all
seems to have a good crop situation this year . Although only a few countries
have had their sowing/harvest done so far the trend certainly points to a better crop in the coming season. There is no reason to believe that the sowing
patterns will change due to softer prices as the sesame crop is now a fast
selling product for the African farmers and still fetching them a fair price.
Apart from some damage news from Sudan all other destinations should in my
opinion have a similar or better crop than last year and there are carry over
stocks in some countries as well.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>5:- </b>No confirmed news from South American destinations but
the news says the prices there are soft as well with no rush or panic demand
from anywhere.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b>6:-</b> <b>Coming to the Indian crop now</b>.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>A:-</b> Sowing is
estimated to be 10-15% more than last year .This number is huge owing to the
fact that it was actually less than normal last year due to a failed monsoon
and in some cases total washout due to heavy flooding in certain areas. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">A normal sowing area anyways gives us a huge crop but a
10-15% addition could result in what they say a “ Bumper Crop” .<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>B:-</b> Carry over
stocks are not much , should be in the range of<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;">
</span>25,000-30,000 MT max all areas put together . These are mostly the
stocks with people who had stocked at high levels and are now stuck. The normal
trend of stocking in India is that you invest say 20-25% of the money and get
the balanced financed from the bankers when you stock the commodity in a
warehouse. The prices for their stocks is now 25-30% lower and hence the
stockiest are practically loosing on their entire deposit so all they can do it
wait and play it slow hoping for a jump or at end they will just rotate their old
stocks with new cargo and carry on.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>That
is why we are already seeing a disparity in prices with forwards being cheaper
than the spot prices. The crop would have harvested early but some rains last week has pushed the arrival forward by a week or so, we expect tradable quantities to start arriving in various market yard by Mid of October.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><b> C:-</b> Their was some issue with lesser rains in August and
September and I do believe it may have stopped the “Bumper Crop” year from
happening but a big crop non the less is surely on its way. The yields will be
affected and crop size may reduce a little than expected but the quality should
actually be better owing to lesser rain damaged crop. Once again hard to put a
number on the crop that is still in the field but im assuming it should be
atleast 15-20% more than last year. Everyone ofcourse has their own numbers for
last year crop so you will have to do the maths.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><b><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Some Export Import Numbers :-</span></b></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<o:p><span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></o:p></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Year<span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span>
Export<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2010-11<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">398,441 MT<span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span></span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2011-12<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">389,154 MT</span><span style="mso-tab-count: 1;"> </span><span style="color: #1a1a1a;"><o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2012-13<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">299,482 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2013-14<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">257,443 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2014-15<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
375,656 MT<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Year <span style="mso-tab-count: 4;"> </span>Import<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2010-11<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: #1a1a1a;">8,727<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MT<o:p></o:p></span></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2011-12<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><span style="color: #1a1a1a;">609 <span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2012-13<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">38,050 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2013-14<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
<span style="color: #1a1a1a;">72,928 MT</span><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">2014-15<span style="mso-tab-count: 3;"> </span>-
34,767 MT<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The last 2 years numbers are particularly very interesting
for India , as you can see the export numbers have seen a steep increase in
2014-15 compared to the years before this even after India supposedly having a bad crop
year. The import numbers have also seen a significant rise. India imported
almost 100,000 MT that means we were almost among the top 5 worldwide importer
along with the top exporting country.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">India contributes roughly 30,000 Mt to the Korean Imports
through the tender and we all know what big noise we Indian’s make about it. We
actually imported more than what we contributed to the Korean Tender. With a huge crop expected this year it is highly unlikely India will be a importing destination this season , atleast not in a big way as some imports coming into India are based on customer requirement for African Hulled Seed which is being catered by some Huller's in India.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">This means the African's will have a little more quantity in hand to sell elsewhere as India moves out of the importing equation.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Anyways I think the world market does’nt really move the way
we in India think it does.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Last year we had a smaller crop and the volumes
increased but markets still went down , </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">the years before we had bigger crop yet
the volumes decresead but still the prices went up.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">I guess the market movement is not really determined by what
and how much you have to sell, its dependent more on when and how much the
others want to buy. Buyer's market in simple words despite whatever we may think.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">China having a short crop is no guarantee of markets moving
up and similarly India having a huge crop is not a surety of prices
going down. <o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">Markets we believe have already been discounted to a huge extent already in anticipation and in relation to all the above factors and more. The Currency movement being one of them.</span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">We may still be a little off the bottom as the actual crop pressure is still to be seen and the buying/Stocking pattern worldwide still to unfold but with so much already factored in another steep fall from here looks remote now. Then there is always the Edible oil parity question , any oilseed getting cheaper weighs down on the mixing and blending for support and with the current prices of sesame it is almost at par or even lower than a few oilseeds already. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">There will surely be a great buying window for people who keep a watch on the market and then a rally back upwards for stability and parity with the global demand supply.We've seen a steady growth even when prices touched USD 3000 PMT and there is no reason to believe that demand or consumption will slow down at sub $2000 levels. The breach of $2000 /PMT for Hulled Sesame was really something i did not see coming so soon but it happened partly because of the currency changes and the huge supplies coming in from Africa. Looking at the world Import/Export numbers there seems to be no fall in consumption just change in buying destination and addition of newer suppling countries. </span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">My conclusion for the new crop once again would be to buy
and sell at all levels rather than waiting for the bottom or peak’s. The policy
of most buyers in the recent past had been spot buying and selling and looking
at the market volatility and the economic conditions worldwide we believe its
still the safest way to deal in commodities.<span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">The norms worldwide for food are becoming stricter by the day and I see
no respite from this in the coming future , there are a lot of people in the
trade who probably do not know anything beyond Sesame Seed , USD ????? CNF ?????.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;">They are least bothered or aware about what they are selling or even buying in some cases. Food Safety is here to stay. The more we interact as buyers/sellers the better it is for everyone involved.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span><b>“Garbage In Garbage
Out”</b><o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><span style="mso-spacerun: yes;"> </span>I had pointed out a
couple of years ago the birth of Double skin Bengal Hulled Sesame Seed and
other varieties of Pearly White Chemically Bleached Hulled Sesame Seed made
from Brown sesame etc and im sure a lot of the clients who fell for those
varieties learnt a expensive lesson. Thankfully the markets got aware and with
a bigger crop this year I am hopeful that such varieties will find fewer
takers.<o:p></o:p></span></div>
<div class="MsoNormal">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif; font-size: large;"><br /></span></div>
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
<o:AllowPNG/>
</o:OfficeDocumentSettings>
</xml><![endif]-->
<!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:WordDocument>
<w:View>Normal</w:View>
<w:Zoom>0</w:Zoom>
<w:TrackMoves/>
<w:TrackFormatting/>
<w:PunctuationKerning/>
<w:ValidateAgainstSchemas/>
<w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>false</w:SaveIfXMLInvalid>
<w:IgnoreMixedContent>false</w:IgnoreMixedContent>
<w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>false</w:AlwaysShowPlaceholderText>
<w:DoNotPromoteQF/>
<w:LidThemeOther>EN-US</w:LidThemeOther>
<w:LidThemeAsian>JA</w:LidThemeAsian>
<w:LidThemeComplexScript>X-NONE</w:LidThemeComplexScript>
<w:Compatibility>
<w:BreakWrappedTables/>
<w:SnapToGridInCell/>
<w:WrapTextWithPunct/>
<w:UseAsianBreakRules/>
<w:DontGrowAutofit/>
<w:SplitPgBreakAndParaMark/>
<w:EnableOpenTypeKerning/>
<w:DontFlipMirrorIndents/>
<w:OverrideTableStyleHps/>
<w:UseFELayout/>
</w:Compatibility>
<m:mathPr>
<m:mathFont m:val="Cambria Math"/>
<m:brkBin m:val="before"/>
<m:brkBinSub m:val="--"/>
<m:smallFrac m:val="off"/>
<m:dispDef/>
<m:lMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:rMargin m:val="0"/>
<m:defJc m:val="centerGroup"/>
<m:wrapIndent m:val="1440"/>
<m:intLim m:val="subSup"/>
<m:naryLim m:val="undOvr"/>
</m:mathPr></w:WordDocument>
</xml><![endif]--><!--[if gte mso 9]><xml>
<w:LatentStyles DefLockedState="false" DefUnhideWhenUsed="true"
DefSemiHidden="true" DefQFormat="false" DefPriority="99"
LatentStyleCount="276">
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="0" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Normal"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="heading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="9" QFormat="true" Name="heading 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 7"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 8"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" Name="toc 9"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="35" QFormat="true" Name="caption"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="10" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" Name="Default Paragraph Font"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="11" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtitle"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="22" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Strong"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="20" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="59" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Table Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Placeholder Text"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="1" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="No Spacing"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Revision"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="34" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="List Paragraph"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="29" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="30" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Quote"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 1"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 2"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 3"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 4"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 5"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="60" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="61" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="62" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Light Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="63" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="64" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Shading 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="65" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="66" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium List 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="67" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 1 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="68" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 2 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="69" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Medium Grid 3 Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="70" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Dark List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="71" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Shading Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="72" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful List Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="73" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" Name="Colorful Grid Accent 6"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="19" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="21" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Emphasis"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="31" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Subtle Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="32" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Intense Reference"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="33" SemiHidden="false"
UnhideWhenUsed="false" QFormat="true" Name="Book Title"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="37" Name="Bibliography"/>
<w:LsdException Locked="false" Priority="39" QFormat="true" Name="TOC Heading"/>
</w:LatentStyles>
</xml><![endif]-->
<!--[if gte mso 10]>
<style>
/* Style Definitions */
table.MsoNormalTable
{mso-style-name:"Table Normal";
mso-tstyle-rowband-size:0;
mso-tstyle-colband-size:0;
mso-style-noshow:yes;
mso-style-priority:99;
mso-style-parent:"";
mso-padding-alt:0in 5.4pt 0in 5.4pt;
mso-para-margin:0in;
mso-para-margin-bottom:.0001pt;
mso-pagination:widow-orphan;
font-size:12.0pt;
font-family:Cambria;
mso-ascii-font-family:Cambria;
mso-ascii-theme-font:minor-latin;
mso-hansi-font-family:Cambria;
mso-hansi-theme-font:minor-latin;}
</style>
<![endif]-->
<!--StartFragment-->
<!--EndFragment--><br />
<div class="MsoNormal">
<br /></div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-78986366640266990742015-08-15T15:09:00.000+05:302015-08-15T15:09:09.531+05:30Goma Sesame. Sesamum indicum. ゴマ、胡麻。<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<h3 class="post-title entry-title" itemprop="name" style="color: #140201; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 21px; line-height: 22px; text-indent: 10px;">
<br /></h3>
<div class="post-body entry-content" id="post-body-6575264171473324813" itemprop="articleBody" style="color: #140201; font-family: Verdana, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 22px; text-indent: 10px;">
Sesame is an annual, flowering plant which is cultivated for its seeds, which grow in pods. Sesame has been long known to mankind as an oilseed: it was first cultivated about 5,000 years ago in Egypt and the Sahara area. It was already know in Japan in the middle or later Jomon-period (2,500-300 BCE) and there are records of its cultivation for lamp oil in the Nara-period (710-784). In the ensuing Heian-period (794-1185) it was also used for medicinal purposes.<br /><br />Nowadays, 99.9% of all sesame used in Japan is imported. Only a small amount is produced on Kikaijima, one of the Amami Islands belonging to Kagoshima prefecture. The highest production of sesame comes from Burma, India and China.<br /><br />Sesame has a nutty flavor and is rich in oil. It comes in three forms: white, black and golden (this last one is said to have the best aroma, but is not readily available). White sesame seeds contain more oil than black ones, but black sesame has a somewhat stronger, nuttier flavor.<br /><br />Sesame seeds are sold in four forms: (1) untoasted, (2) toasted, (3) toasted and roughly ground as well as (4) toasted and ground into a smooth paste.<br /><br />One can toast sesame seeds oneself by heating a dry frying pan over low to medium heat, then put in the seeds and toast them in 1-2 minutes. Shake the pan occasionally so that all the seeds get heated through. Be careful not to overroast the sesame.<br /><br />For grinding, in Japan a suribachi is used, a bowl-shaped ceramic mortar which has small grooves on the inside. For the grinding, a wooden pestle (surikogi) is necessary, so that the bowl is not damaged. Grind the seeds until they are flaky and aromatic. Ground sesame is only good fresh, so use it soon after grinding.<br /><br /><div style="text-align: center;">
<a href="https://www.flickr.com/photos/ganjin/13592714995" style="color: #940f04; text-decoration: none;" title="Goma (sesame seed) with mortar (suribachi) and pestle (surikogi) by Ad Blankestijn, on Flickr"><img alt="Goma (sesame seed) with mortar (suribachi) and pestle (surikogi)" height="480" src="https://farm4.staticflickr.com/3780/13592714995_3e17081d04_z.jpg" style="border: 0px;" width="640" /></a></div>
<div style="text-align: center;">
[Sesame seeds (goma) with mortar (suribachi) and wooden pestle (surikogi)]</div>
<br />Sesame is used in Japan in the following ways:<br /><ul>
<li>Toasted but not ground (<b>irigoma</b>): black sesame seeds are sprinkled over rice or other dishes to add a color accent (<b>furikake</b>). Sesame seed is also an important ingredient in prepackaged <i>furikake</i>. Both black and white sesame seeds can be used on the outside of <i>uramaki </i>(inside-outside rolls, like the California roll).</li>
<li>Toasted and ground sesame is called <b>surigoma</b> in Japanese. Used in many recipes in the Japanese cuisine, starting with adding it to <i>shira-ae</i> (cooked vegetables dressed with tofu). As on the picture above, <i>surigoma</i> can also be used in the sauce for <i>tonkatsu</i>.</li>
<li>Sesame dressing (<b>gomadare</b>) is one of the most popular dressings for salads in Japan and can be found in all supermarkets.</li>
<li>Sesame paste (<b>nerigoma</b>) is also sold in supermarkets and can be used as a spread on bread, like peanut butter (but much more tasty!). </li>
<li>Sesame oil (<b>goma-abura</b>). The best oil for cooking, thanks to its flavor, often blended as it is rather thick. It is indispensable in the oil mixture used for deep-frying <i>tempura</i>.</li>
</ul>
Sesame is high in proteins and since olden times, various health benefits have been ascribed to it.<br /><br />"Goma" has also found its way into general culture. As grinding sesame seeds in a <i>suribachi </i>is hard work, the expression "goma-suri" was born to indicate "flattery," especially flattery of one's superior.<br /><br /></div>
</div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-88159756655098941382015-08-09T19:54:00.001+05:302015-10-03T15:27:44.783+05:30 BRC and IFS Certification for Hulled Sesame Seed <div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
We are proud to share our BRC and IFS Certificates with everyone who cares and knows the importance of these in the food Industry.</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
However I must add that working tirelessly over the past 1 year to achieve the status </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
we learnt a very important lesson, </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
"<b> Certification is not always a Guarantee of Quality its just a commitment for Improvement"</b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
We are now the first and only Factory in India to have both BRC and IFS certification done together for Exclusive Hulling and Export of Hulled Sesame Seed from India , being in existence since 1996 it was a tough challenge for us to get our old Infrastructure in line with the very stringent bylaws and conditions of the certification body but with a total commitment and resolve we finally did manage to overcome the odds. </div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<b><br /></b></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">
We graciously Thank all our esteemed buyers who believed in us for all these years and stood by us in good times and bad and without whom this level would not have been possible. We promise to keep working harder in serving you with utmost integrity and honesty in the coming future and in return all we expect is your invaluable and indispensable oversight and experince towards betterment .</div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<br /></div>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9GMI8sA80DvH0qLRa_4XAr423Bdp5WDjFxrOArZW4Ys07MsmY9CG-YFFZ2Nd537A8vOJcYTaRFKBV-duhLkivPxMkduoj3yFNLZNEJbi9wWSySvPAw-CoNgUPa8JaBmS_QuSqa_qRFKs/s1600/BRC+Certificate+Shakumbhri+copy.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg9GMI8sA80DvH0qLRa_4XAr423Bdp5WDjFxrOArZW4Ys07MsmY9CG-YFFZ2Nd537A8vOJcYTaRFKBV-duhLkivPxMkduoj3yFNLZNEJbi9wWSySvPAw-CoNgUPa8JaBmS_QuSqa_qRFKs/s640/BRC+Certificate+Shakumbhri+copy.jpg" width="452" /></a></div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip_oLDZeEkvyrc2Fi0zwn0s4HxBUFWz8_9Xo7_SxYubtaXp1hODpPN0bMZikj1BKb7e-EaAy_Q1HfnfNGaeUrBf7YG5qTBGkWIFPb8RpB-Oyva8CxNIH2WNTEBW4WPegX0xV0OtNtB2_g/s1600/Shakumbhri_IFS_Cert_2015%255B11%255D+.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="640" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEip_oLDZeEkvyrc2Fi0zwn0s4HxBUFWz8_9Xo7_SxYubtaXp1hODpPN0bMZikj1BKb7e-EaAy_Q1HfnfNGaeUrBf7YG5qTBGkWIFPb8RpB-Oyva8CxNIH2WNTEBW4WPegX0xV0OtNtB2_g/s640/Shakumbhri_IFS_Cert_2015%255B11%255D+.jpg" width="452" /></a></div>
<br />
For those would would like to have their Supplier Questionnaire's updated and filled and if you need soft copies of the certificates and other documents please feel free to email me on<br />
<a href="mailto:mukul@shakumbhri.org">mukul@shakumbhri.org</a>. It would be our pleasure to provide you with all the information.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;"><b>We are participating in ANUGA , Cologne, Germany between 10-14th October 2015. </b></span><br />
<b><span style="background-color: white;"><br style="color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif; font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;" /></span><span style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #141823; font-family: helvetica, arial, sans-serif;"><span style="font-size: 14px; line-height: 19px;">We kindly request you to visit and grace us at our Booth no. F-036, Hall No. 11.3 , India Pavilion.</span></span></span></b><br />
<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
</div>
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-80811647009820433892014-07-16T18:19:00.000+05:302014-07-17T12:45:32.056+05:30Sesame Seed Monsoon/New Crop July 16th 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Hi Everyone,<br />
<br />
Been a long time since I updated the post , actually there was nothing much to write anyways. Everyone had their own idea's of the Market and without numbers in hand it made little sense to counter the predictions/Guesstimates and view of the market.<br />
<br />
Lets first look at some of the things that have happened in the past few months.<br />
<br />
1:- Summer crop in Gujrat came out and although everyone put out numbers in excess of 150,000 MT , the official survey reports pegged it at around 115,000 MT.<br />
<br />
2:- The hulling industry saw the birth of another quality this year from Double Skin Bengal Brown Sesame seed. I had my apprihensions about the quality and I continue to do so. Thankfully people are now atleast offering it a different grade altogether so that buyer's now have a choice weather to buy cheap chemical laden product or opt for the Premium Product. The price difference is almost $200-$300 PMT so you need to be careful what you buy and from whom you buy.<br />
<br />
If you buy the cheaper grade at cheaper quality knowingly its perfectly fine and a personal decision but incase someone sends you the cheaper quality at a slightly discounted price compared to the Premium it means instead of saving $100 PMT you probably lost $200 and now you work with the risk of selling substandard quality to your premium grade buyer's.<br />
<br />
The Brown Sesame Grade is here to stay so everyone needs to be extra careful from now on.<br />
<br />
3:- The stock levels as rightly predicted have touched a all time low , Stocks in the states of UP, MP and Rajasthan have almost finished. Atleast for UP and MP I can predict with utmost confidence that they might not have more than 5000 MT put together and even this is a exaggerated number.<br />
I wouldn't be wrong in saying that the only reason buyer's have been able to buy from India and India has been able to export Sesame is because of Gujrat Summer crop from Mid May onwards.<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><span style="font-size: large;">Now to some numbers</span></b><br />
<br />
1:- <b>Gujarat Summer Crop</b> :-<br />
Arrivals started around 15th May,Peak arrivals around 25th May and Dipped again around 25th June. Peak Arrivals average around 25,000 Bags/Day or about 2000 MT/Day.<br />
Slow Arrival Average around 8,000 Bags/Day or about 600 MT/Day<br />
Peak Arrival Days :- 30 , Slow Arrival Days :- 30<br />
<br />
Total Quantity = (30 X 2000MT) + (30 X 600MT) = 78,000 MT. This number might still be off by 10% so lets assume we've had a crop close to 90,000. Even though I never put a number our regular clients will know that we never estimated the crop to be above 100,000 Mt .<br />
<br />
Some people might argue there were days with 35,000 Bags/Day arrival as well , so to factor in the odd days I have taken a average without considering the holidays or carry over sales of the day.<br />
<br />
2:- <b>Indian Sesame Seed Export Import Data for the past 2 years</b><br />
<b>Export</b><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">S.No.</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="8%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">HSCode</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="50%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Commodity</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="7%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Unit</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2012-2013</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2013-2014</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">%Growth</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><br /></th></tr>
<tr><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1.</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">120740</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">SEASAMUM SEEDS</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> MT</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">299,482.29</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">257,443.09</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-14.04</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">S.No.</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="8%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">HSCode</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="50%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Commodity</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="7%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Unit</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2010-2011</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2011-2012</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">%Growth</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><br /></th></tr>
<tr><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">2 .</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">120740</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">SEASAMUM SEEDS </span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> MT</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">398,441.17</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">389,154.01</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-2.33</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: xx-small;"><br /></span></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<b>Import</b><br />
<table border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">S.No.</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="8%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">HSCode</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="50%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Commodity</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="7%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Unit</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2012-2013</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2013-2014</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">%Growth</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><br /></th></tr>
<tr><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">1.</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">120740</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">SEASAMUM SEEDS</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> MT</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">38,050.45</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">72,928.09</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">91.66</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"> </td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<table border="1" cellpadding="3" cellspacing="0" style="width: 100%px;"><tbody>
<tr><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">S.No.</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="8%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">HSCode</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="50%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Commodity</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="7%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">Unit</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2010-2011</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">2011-2012</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="10%"><span style="color: white; font-family: Arial; font-size: x-small;">%Growth</span></th><th bgcolor="#336600" width="5%"><br /></th></tr>
<tr><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">2</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">120740</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">SEASAMUM SEEDS</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;"> MT</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">8,727.92</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">609.28</span></td><td align="right" style="vertical-align: top;"><span style="font-size: x-small;">-93.02</span></td><td style="vertical-align: top;"><br /></td></tr>
</tbody></table>
<br />
Interesting number's these. You will notice in the past 4 years the Exports from India have dipped by almost 140,000 MT but the Imports have risen by almost 70,000 MT.<br />
<br />
India cannot import Sesame for domestic consumption so all that we are importing we are re-exporting.<br />
Its a similar pattern to what China had till it became a net Importer. The domestic consumption in India is rising and the buyer's here are willing to pay a better price as well with less headache and faster payment terms. The African markets have opened up for everyone in the trade and India I believe is one of the biggest buyer from Africa now , weather they import the seeds into India or get them exported directly to various destinations is another story.<br />
<br />
<br />
<span style="font-size: large;"><b>Current Situation and Future Predictions :-</b></span><br />
<br />
1 :- Anyone thinking that the stockiest in India are sitting on huge loads of stocks in their warehouses is in for a big shock in the coming months. The stock situation is at a all time low in every sesame producing area and whatever little there is left should only be enough for India to sustain its export demand for the next 3 month until the new crop arrives.<br />
<br />
2:- The monsoon is really weak in India and with almost 40% less rainfall the situation looks unlikely that it will improve. The late rains means that sowing in most areas has not even started now.<br />
Going by the data available online<br />
<br />
"<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="background-color: white;">In oilseeds in particular, there has been 83 per cent drop as of last week July vis-a-vis July last year in terms of the area under sowing. "</span></b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span></b></span>
<b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;">"<span style="color: #3d4239; line-height: 21px;">Sowing of most kharif crops barring paddy is significantly lower than the corresponding area last year. According to agriculture ministry data, a total of 25.6 million hectare area has been down as on July 12, half of the corresponding area of 51.76 million hectare sown in the corresponding period last year. Most affected is the sowing of crops like pulses, coarse cereals, oilseeds and cotton"</span></b><br />
<b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #3d4239; line-height: 21px;"><br /></span></b>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="color: #3b3a39; line-height: 16px;"> "</span><span style="line-height: 16px;">As on July 15, cotton sowing is done on 10.19 lakh hectares against normal of 27.17 lakh hectares, while groundnut sowing is 5.41 lakh hectares against normal 14.39 lakh hectares in the state. Total area under cultivation in the state is 11.25 lakh hectares as against the normal 26 lakh hectares."</span></b><br />
<b style="background-color: white; font-family: 'Helvetica Neue', Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: small;"><span style="line-height: 16px;"><br /></span></b></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Helvetica Neue, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: x-small;"><b style="background-color: white;"><span style="color: #3b3a39;"><span style="line-height: 16px;">"It would be a blind bet for the cash crops because rains are uncertain and the crop may fail. In this situation at least the farmers have to save their cattle by making adequate fodder available.</span></span><span style="color: #3b3a39; line-height: 16px;">The present rainfall is insufficient for sowing of cash crops because it would require more moisture in the soil. But with such rains, fodder is an option for farmers to survive their cattle"</span></b></span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #3b3a39; font-family: Times, 'Times New Roman', serif; line-height: 16px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<span style="font-family: Times, Times New Roman, serif;">Even if we assume that these estimates are wrong we can safely say that the sowing will be short and even if the rains come today and sowing starts tomm , which i don't think will happen anyways looking at the rainfall situation the sowing area is unlikely to be anywhere near what it was in the previous years. Even if the sowing finish by End July , the new crop will not be available before November now and that means for the next 3 months India will absolutely finish every last kilo of Sesame stock and might go into African markets aggressively to shop around , taking the global prices higher and higher till they can be cooled down by the new crop.</span></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
3:- The new crop predictions should start as usual in September-Early October and any bad news can create further panic , we also have to keep in mind that even that little new crop will be on the mercy of the rains , we have seen in the past few years what damage the last few weeks of rains can do to sesame seed crops.</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
4:- The festival season and Winter demand for the domestic markets in India should also start around Mid October and with no new crop in sight the old stocks will quickly be diverted to the domestic market where they fetch a better price. </div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
5:- I am not implying in anyway that the buyers need to stock their warehouses today in anticipation of price rise , there still are many factors which can cool down price</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
a:- Good crop in China and Myanmar , this will divert all the Chinese and to an extent the South Asian </div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
Oil based demand.</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
b:- Drop in demand , again I say demand and not consumption. If on the shelf it will sell.</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
c:- A huge crop in India in a range of 250,000 -300,000 Mt.</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
d:- A normal to huge crop in Africa</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
e:- Currency factor is always there</div>
<div style="margin: 0px; outline: 0px; padding: 0px; vertical-align: baseline;">
<br /></div>
Looking at all the factors above we believe there might be another bullish year ahead , atleast till December when African markets will once again determine the fate of prices for the next few months.<br />
However with global prices available to everyone on real time basis atleast "WE" would not be naive enough to think that Africans would sell their cargo at throw away prices when they know for sure that no one else can fill in the global supply gap. With carry over stocks worldwide at all time low chances are we would continue to move hand to mouth basis for the next season as well.<br />
<br />
Looking at the global scenario my suggestion once again to the buyer's who like to do business on a long term basis is to get into collaborations with actual Manufacturer Exporters rather than relying on fly by the night new suppliers and brokers. You might get lucky with small trader's once or twice but for a larger picture you do not even realize that slowly you are getting sidelined in the business and someone else is taking up that space. The only way to move forward in this global economy is to have a stable and reliable supplier base.<br />
<br />
Switching to inferior quality in tough times might look like the best option initially but by the time the world spins around again you would find yourself on the wrong planet altogether.<br />
<br />
Tough choice but thats what life is all about.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-45833413420319663302014-03-11T20:10:00.000+05:302014-03-11T20:10:32.510+05:30Sesame Seed Gujrat Summer Crop Prediction<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Hi Everyone,<br />
<br />
Since our last report in Jan the markets have been more or less rangebound as we thought they would.<br />
<br />
Nothing much happening in the market except the gossips and predictions of a super Summer Crop in Gujrat . It seems like everyone expects the seeds to pour out of the farms onto the streets and a total crash in prices . We'll to be frank we don't really see that happening.<br />
<br />
Lets look at a few reasons why we think so.<br />
<br />
1:- The stocks in India are at really really low levels , its a fact I doubt anyone would deny now.<br />
<br />
2:- Stocks at destinations are at a hand to mouth situation as well , I doubt there are buyers sitting on huge unsold stocks anywhere in the world.<br />
<br />
3:- African cargo is practically over and they will not harvest till Early November in a big way.<br />
<br />
4:- A new crop or a big new crop is not a unknown phenomenon . We have a new crop every year in every sesame growing region. Its much bigger in size than what we expect the summer crop to be and still prices do not fall let alone crash every time. Ofcourse a new crop can start with a correction of 10-15% but how long that correction stays depends on so many factors which need to be looked at.<br />
<br />
5:- With predictions numbers of 100,000-150,000 and even 200,000 coming out for summer crop I think most people have now forgotten what the average summer crop size actually is. So now even if we have a crop of say 80,000 MT everyone in the market will say its a small crop because the comparison parameters have been set to artificially high levels.<br />
<br />
6:- While I was in Gulfood talking to a few friends everyone there predicted a super crop for chickpeas as well and within 3 weeks time the rains have practically turned the tables. Didn't the same happen to the sesame crop's in India over the past few seasons.<br />
<br />
7:- Everyone says farmers would grow more sesame because the prices are high , but fail to acknowledge the fact that sesame is a low yield crop as well. So a farmer growing sesame today doesn't really make a killing compared to the other crops he can do as well. However going by the same logic the question remains that will the farmer who has seen his crops getting washed out for the past 2 seasons and lived in misery will dare to do sesame seed again if the Indian government predicts another good monsoon.The fact is that a good monsoon in India means that you can have a good crop of practically any commodity except Sesame.<br />
<br />
Here are a few articles for you to go through to understand that with the unpredictable world weather how difficult it really is to predict a good or bad crop even after its been sown , let alone predicting a crop size even before the sowing started. Still have a good 2 months before new summer crop arrives and will be interesting to see how many Astrologer's who predicted a bumper crop revise their estimates in the meantime and get their clients into deeper troubles.<br />
<br />
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/rajkot/No-respite-from-rain-hailstorm-in-Saurashtra/articleshow/31773484.cms<br />
<br />
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/business/india-business/Fears-of-El-Nino-on-rise-may-spell-woes-for-the-economy/articleshow/31824485.cms<br />
<br />
http://www.hindustantimes.com/india-news/storms-batter-half-of-india-damage-farms-and-crops/article1-1193410.aspx<br />
<br />
The USD has started playing games as well just like we expected it to in Election Year. The USD has moved to 60.80 levels from nearly 63 levels a few months ago which is like a 3-4% appritiation.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-50533150956378690212014-01-20T13:56:00.000+05:302014-01-20T13:56:24.037+05:30Market Report Sesame Seed 20th Jan 2014<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<br />
Hello Everyone,<br />
<br />
Hope everyone had a great start to the New Year and we wish everyone a lot of Happiness , Joy and Prosperity.<br />
<br />
Sesame Seed market over the past few months since our last report has moved along just as we predicted. The Hulled Sesame Seed Price jumped to an all time high of around $3200-3250 FOB levels and have since then settled down at around $2850-$2900 FOB levels.<br />
<br />
What has indeed happened is the arrival of sub-standard qualities in the market which are trading at much lower levels but frankly speaking I personally wouldn't recommend anyone to eat that. In my 14 yrs in business its very rare that I have ever tried to ridicule or snub a competitor , what others do is none of my concern but when it comes to Sesame Seed laced with Chemical's , bleach and various whitening agents I think its my duty to make people at least aware about it. I never understood this fascination of pearly white color in the seeds anyways.<br />
<br />
The cheaper variety or "Hulled Sesame Seed from Brown" as they call it, is being made from crushing grade Brown sesame ,just the brown/black/Red etc mix kinds was still acceptable but this year they are trying to hull the double skinned sesame , mainly found in West Bengal region of India, the worse kinds that is available, even the oil made from these seeds is considered lower grade and for direct consumption its almost as good as slow poison. As of now the food authorities around the world are not checking for chemical adulteration in Hulled Sesame but I am sure some day they will and then a lot of people will loose a lot of money in claims and God forbid will land up in jails for mis-declarations.<br />
<br />
You can ask your respective suppliers more about it , just ask which raw material is being used for the Hulled that they are supplying to you and for once just ask them if its chemical and bleach free, you will be surprised how quickly the price offered will change. Its a dirty game being played in India so just be careful. I can understand if the price difference is 50-60$ PMT for a Hulled Sesame Quality , but a difference of $200-$300 raises suspicion. Something has to be wrong somewhere.<br />
<br />
Moving onto better things , the Sesame Market overall.<br />
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
<b>Current Situation :-</b></h4>
<b><br /></b>
1:- The markets are almost stable on a day to day basis over the past few weeks now. The arrivals have virtually stopped and the demand remains sluggish with mostly spot business being done.<br />
<br />
2:- The stocks are definitely not huge , contrary to what many people think that there really is a lot of stocks hidden somewhere and one day the flood gates will open and all the sellers will come out with truck loads and markets will crash 20-30% overnight. I really doubt that. Being a manufacturer I have never really seen a situation as we see now. To buy 100 Mt a day in Jan is a big deal today , whereas in past we could collect a 1000 mt over the phone.<br />
<br />
3:- The Korean's tried to play smart and announced a tender excluding their traditional suppliers ie. India, Pakistan , Sudan and Ethiopia. They thought the smaller countries should be brought into the picture to expand the supplier base , it did work but surely not the way they probably thought it would, the prices they got around $2550-$2600 was not really a huge bargain.<br />
<br />
4:- Africa was the only reason we believed that could have brought the prices down, it did to a certain extent but once again our predictions from the past held true. Sesame is no longer a sub $2000 commodity. Unless something really drastic happens i doubt the Natural 99/1 grade can trade below $2000 levels this season i.e till next new crop in Oct 2014.<br />
<br />
5:- Talking about the dip in demand and exports , a lot you will be surprised to know that the export numbers from India from Oct- Dec are only marginally down. If I have the correct numbers the total export from India for Oct-Dec stands at around 53,000 MT . That is rougly about 18,000 Mt per month.<br />
<br />
6:- The sudden correction in prices have forced virtually everyone to get rid of the excess stocks. The exporters , bigger stockiest have all gone into profit booking mode since mid Dec and I believe by mid of Feb we should once again see hand to mouth buying from everyone. Even with so little buying by exporters and bigger stockiest the prices at farm/market levels remain firm and high showing that there really is lack of supply and bullish under current.<br />
<br />
7:- People talked about heavy imports from Africa into India , but fail to realize that unlike last year the average Import prices are around 2000-2100 $ PMT . Average cost to bring the imported cargo to the factory is around $100 PMT . So with a landed price of $2100 PMT and taking a good yield of say 80% we get $2625 just the cost of seeds. You need to add the manufacturing cost + packing + export charges + interest cost etc, all of which will cost nothing less than $200 PMT. So the mean average that we predicted in the start of the season around 2800-2850 stands justified.<br />
<br />
Unless someone can point out where the raw material is cheaper than $2000 PMT on a consistent supply basis , I see no reason for a huge slump in prices in India.<br />
<br />
<br />
<h4 style="text-align: left;">
What can happen over the next few months :-</h4>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
1:- News of smaller new crops ( Mid Season) are coming in from Gujrat. I think these are the one's where the farmers did resowing after the late damages. I would put these to be in the range of around 2000Mt to 3000 MT on time to time basis. People say these could pull the markets down but I believe they are more likely to keep the market steady.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
2:- Gujrat summer crop. Phewww some people are already talking about summer crop being huge , bumper , ultra super in the range of 100,000 Mt. Well all I can say to such rumors is good luck Mr Nostradamus . Last time Gujrat produced a 100,000 Mt was a decade ago and even that was a regular crop. The sowing has not started yet , we don't know what the weather is likely to be in the coming months so predicting a crop size just on the basis of high prices right now is like predicting floods after a thunderstorm. Yes it might rain cats and dogs , but then maybe it just drizzles , who knows :). The crop comes out around Mid May-June so we still have time , the sowing will start end Feb-Early march and hopefully we should start getting some size estimates by Mid April.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
3:- Korean Tenders will continue to come in from time to time and will keep determining the bench mark prices across the world. Tenders are likely to be smaller in lot size as we have noticed from the past few tenders but i believe the overall quantity on a yearly basis should be same.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
4:- If the prices from Africa and India remain stable i foresee a renewed demand coming back as i have a feeling the buyer's have almost got used to or comfortable at current levels and there is no need to panic anymore.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
No big crops expected globally for the next 6-7 months , the next big crop will be China in September and till then it will be bits and pieces crops in various african destinations which certains cannot cater to every market segment on a regular basis.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
Overall our predictions for the next few months atleast till the next summer crop arrives is that market would remain firm and rangebound. At higher levels the buyer's will slow down and at lower levels there will not be enough sellers. So once again for Hulled a Range for $2800-$2900 remains a good and safe bet to be active in the market.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
We also need to watch the US$ carefully , thankfully for the past 3 months it has been stable and moving in the range of 2-3% both ways but with Elections in India just around the corner ( Expected to happen in April-May) the economic situation could turn either ways and from the little information that we've got it can get very volatile during that period.</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
For people who were worried about the consumption drop in Sesame seed , I found a few interesting articles on the Internet about the growth on hummus ( its 50% Sesame Paste i.e Tahina) . </div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
http://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/shortcuts/2013/aug/07/british-love-affair-with-hummus</div>
<div>
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/02/hummus-is-conquering-amer_n_3202411.html</div>
<div>
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Halva</div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<div>
<br /></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-33007375061528942432013-11-08T20:28:00.000+05:302013-11-18T13:21:25.502+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report 8th Nov 2013<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Hello Everyone,<br />
<br />
So finally the wolf has arrived. All these years we've had the same stories from India about short crop , no raw material , no carry over stocks but this year it looks like the story is finally true.<br />
<br />
Ohh...My God , Are you guys Crazy...etc etc , some of the very common phrases we have been hearing everytime over the past few weeks and to a certain extent I agree with the clients that Indians have indeed gone crazy. Yes the markets are short but the kind of daily/weekly movement we have seen in the recent past are just plain crazy.<br />
<br />
Like I have been saying for the last few months that the market remains bullish despite the prices which fell periodically from time to time , the reason being more currency driven rather than an excess supply or a lack of demand.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
<b>Let us look what happened first :-</b></h3>
<br />
1:- We all knew that India had a good monsoon but we failed to recognize the fact that a good monsoon does not always mean a good crop specially when the crop is sesame . I had specifically mentioned this point in my september report before the crop even arrived.<br />
<br />
2:- Carry over stocks were depleting quickly and we thought we can live without them as soon as the new crop would come in.<br />
<br />
3:- The currency movements were so sharp in the past few months that it made the markets almost directionless .Everyone was playing more with the currency rather than the actual commodity prices.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
Current Situation :-</h3>
<br />
1:- Despite the initial losses due to heavy rains in India and the losses in the northern states of UP/MP the growth figures coming from Rajastan and Gujrat made everyone believe that the overall numbers of total crop would be more or less same as last year , however the late rains changed all that.<br />
<br />
2:- The numbers put forward by various agencies/associations/trade estimates say the total crop is around 200,000 - 220,000 Mt. I would say these numbers are more or less correct looking at the average arrivals in the local markets over the past 30 days.<br />
<br />
3:- I have no doubts that the export numbers from India will fall dramatically this year however from now until October 2014 the majority of global Hulled Sesame demand will still have to catered by India which means we will still easily export about 200,000 MT in the coming 10 months.<br />
<br />
4:- Korean Tenders have shown an affinity towards the Indian suppliers and even the last tender was a testimonial of the fact that a major share of the Korean Tender will still be catered by India despite the high prices here. In a previous report I have explained how the complications with documents , the finances involved , the complicated Bid bonds etc ,the consistency in Quality and transit/delivery period all put together give an advantage to India for the Tenders.<br />
<br />
5:- Last year we had carry over stocks at the start of the season , Indian's entered African market early and got some really really nice bargains for Importing the sesame into india which helped keep the market under control , this year however the Africans are in no mood to sell cheap to India. With prices already very high the risk factor has gone up so much that the handful of people who really do Import and reexport from India are also in a wait zone.<br />
<br />
6:- The supply continues to remain weak , the quality coming into the markets is 90% rain damage which means although it can be used for hulling the yields will be much lower compared to previous years which would mean higher pricing for Hulled. Sometimes for the factories it takes a little longer to realize the losses/cost increase due to yields and lower sales but I am sure eventually everyone will realize these finer points and costings for hulling units will have to be revised.<br />
<br />
7:- The 99/1 grade is in very very short supply , the arrival overall are not even 100 mt /day for good quality which means that the prices for good quality Natural are almost at par with those of low quality hulled.<br />
<br />
8:- At the moment there are only 3 kinds of buyers in the market<br />
a:- Exporters who sold forward and are short.<br />
<br />
b:- Buyer's who sold forward and did not cover.<br />
<br />
c:- Domestic demand which despite high prices is very strong atleast till dec.<br />
<br />
So even though a lot of buyers who say they have enough in their books and are well covered for the next few months have not been covering more at higher levels , I am afraid suddenly everyone will realize their warehouses are empty and will jump back into the market at high levels asking for spot shipments creating a bigger ripple than there already is.<br />
<br />
<h3 style="text-align: left;">
What can happen over the next few months :-</h3>
<br />
1:- Diwali festival is over , everyone in India waiting in anticipation that the arrivals will increase after diwali and a correction will happen. I have a feeling it might be correct, however we have time and again told our buyer that the window will be very small . Anyone waiting to catch the bottom might just miss the train altogether.<br />
<br />
2:- If the arrivals do pick up we might see a correction of about 5-6 % , I am not expecting a big fall right away as the supply chain is still empty. A supply based bullishness can only be countered by excess supply and unfortunately we do not see any big supplies coming in and pulling the markets down.<br />
<br />
3:- If the arrivals do not pick up everyone should be ready to pay a further premium of about 10% . We are already at all time high levels in terms on pricing in Indian rupee but there is always scope of some further upward movement.<br />
<br />
4:- I remember a few yrs ago when Hulled Sesame crossed Rs 100 everyone said its just not sustainable and prices will crash , I explained the phenomenon in a previous report about new market benchmarks which are bound to happen every few yrs , I guess the next target would be Rs 200 , I doubt that atleast for this year it will be breached or can be sustained even if we do manage to touch it but I am sure that the current prices are fair enough to be workable over the new few months.<br />
<br />
5:- Africa as we all know holds the key to the markets , if the big boys there start manipulating the markets , which is very much possible looking at the global situation right now we are in for a tough year ahead.<br />
<br />
6: -The news from Africa is not very promising either , none of the destinations are reported to have a bumper crop , at least not to the extent that they can cover the losses in number's we've had in India and China. BTW China crop was reported short as well and by estimates is only around 250,000 Mt.<br />
<br />
Ofcourse the demand will fall this year and maybe to a certain extent some institutional buying from big bakers and confectionary makers will be less. However like in the past we still firmly believe that price is not a deterrent atleast for food products. A company may think that since their sales are down people are eating less , the fact in most case is just that one of your competitor is now cheaper or has ready cargo to offer and your buyer has merely shifted their demand to someone else to average out their costs and to sustain their demands because you didn't have enough to offer.<br />
<br />
Some of my friends tell me..Ahh you can live without sesame , who's gonna pay such high prices.<br />
But I tell them we can live without a lot of things we don't really need yet people pay loads of money to eat them.<br />
<br />
I do believe a good chunk of sesame application will be shifted towards other seeds but as the wheels turn everyone will notice that the retailers over a period of time have revised their prices and when prices of sesame do fall these people will make a killer profits as retail prices hardly ever get revised downwards and the one's who sat back will regret not being among them.But thats for long term , just a thought :)<br />
<br />
I've heard numerous arguments of Africa emerging as a competitor and taking over the market share of India. The reports are absolutely 100% correct , did'nt India do the same taking over the market share of South America and china. The fact is we dont have enough seeds in India so naturally we are more expensive than Africa is at the moment . Africa also has the advantage of heavy export subsidies , currency valuations against USD and duty benefits in China but all these factors put together do not make a stable and a long term growth story. Its all about which country has a better and bigger crop , so atleast for the next few years the global markets cannot ignore the India story. Once India gets back its big crop that would be the time for a fair comparison.<br />
<br />
As always our suggestions this year would be<br />
<br />
1:- Stick to your reliable suppliers. A regular and old supplier is more likely to help you make a good average over long term rather than any flash supplier who is offering 4-5% cheaper right now.<br />
I would not suggest gambling away $60,000 for a $1000-1500 saving on a container.<br />
<br />
2:- Stick to Quality , in short term switching to cheaper grade of sesame might look like a good decision but in longer run you risk loosing your potential clients when problems start and you unknowingly enter into a price war market where the competition is that much tougher. If you loose a business because a client wanted lower quality because it works for him there is a chance he will come back to you when he has problems or when he wants to move up in terms of quality segment but when a client moves away because he's looking for the cheapest price of the lowest quality where do you go.<br />
<br />
Everyone in commodity market knows the china story , they captured every segment of business with cheaper prices but the party didn't last long. Would you today buy a cheap chinese product or a slightly expensive one made elsewhere ? BTW both sell , its just a matter of prospective.<br />
<br />
3:- Like always please do not be tempted to catch the bottom , the best way forward is working on a average and atleast for hulled I would say an average price of USD 2800-2850 over the next few months should be a good buy this time. You might not get the volumes every-time so its important to be active in the markets at all levels and keep shopping/selling at all levels.<br />
<br />
Sesame is no longer a cheap commodity and it sure is a very volatile one , in the next few years the competition is bound to get smaller because the smaller players will be pushed aside as the profit margins will be far less than the proportionate prices of investments and the risks involved , the one's who will survive will be the one's who stuck to the basics of business.<br />
<b>Right Quality - Right Price.</b><br />
<br />
Once again we thank you for all the support and look forward to you comments.<br />
<br />
<b>KEEPING IT REAL - KEEPING IT SIMPLE</b><br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-58262053087820550242013-09-30T17:16:00.000+05:302013-09-30T17:16:56.994+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report September 30th 2013<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Hello Everyone,<br />
<br />
Time for another New season. Buyer's are ready...seller's are ready and all we need is Sesame seed.<br />
<br />
I am sure by now everyone has the reports from India , the enthu cutlets , Eager beaver's or plain simple aggressive players as we say must have been feeding everyone with day to day updates. Monsoon came in early , but like we said in the last reports the rains were far too much for a good sesame crop.<br />
<br />
Ofcourse there are areas still which look really promising but overall numbers we believe should not be more than last year. The late rains in Gujarat and Rajasthan have further messed up the sentiments and only when the actual new crop comes in the market and the volumes will start to emerge will things cool down or flare up further if the numbers do not show in terms of arrival.<br />
<br />
I'll just sum up my views for the current crops and try to look at the path forward this year. As posted in our last report in July we discussed some number's looking at the total exports and decline in volumes in India.<br />
<br />
Last year despite a Bad crop we had carry over stocks and at the start of the African crop there was a really good window of buying at attractive levels which helped India sustain its Exports. I doubt that the same situation will be repeated this year. The gap in Production Vs Exports in the last few years has virtually wiped off all the carry forward stocks this year.We could see a further dip in Exports from India this year.<br />
<br />
We predicted in Oct last year that Sesame ( Hulled ) was no longer a sub $2000 commodity and have been bang on with that. So when we talk about prices moving this season we should forget what levels we had earlier , the new low benchmark is now $2000 and the high being about $2700 last year ,we have a avg mean price of around $2300-2400 so the price volatility this year should be in the range of +/- 30% from the mean average.<br />
<br />
The $/Rupee will be important to watch as its moving up/down by about 15-20% on a yearly average as well.<br />
<br />
The domestic demand in India should also pick up by end of October as the festive reason and winters set in . Stockiest everyone believes will not enter into the market at high levels and that everyone would try to move hand to mouth. Once again I doubt that , high level is just a number....when prices were @ $1000 the stockiest aimed at $1200 and now that they are $2000 they will aim @ $2200 . So its a phenomenon that everyone in business is already aware of , yes stocking will happen , yes speculation will continue , yes prices will rise and fall and yes people will still be eating Sesame @ $3000 .<br />
<br />
Due to high prices the volatility index has gone up tremendously in the past few years , the up/Down's are no more for a few $ here and there...we now see price changing by $50-100 in a matter of few days so its even more difficult to predict the bottoms and highs. My suggestion as always would be not to wait to catch the market at the bottom but to be active in the market all the time and work on averages.<br />
<br />
A reliable supplier will probably feed you at all levels and minimize all risks for himself and for you while the speculator will probably make loads of money selling to his buyer at the peak or lose a lot having committed at the bottom. Either case Bad Business I would say. With 2 FCL's now costing almost a $100,000 it needs a careful understanding and long term planning with their trusted suppliers to sustain in this commodity for long term.<br />
<br />
The actual picture should be clear in a few weeks time and by the time Anuga , Germany is over I believe the market will finally have a direction.<br />
<br />
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; font-family: Calibri;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"> We cordially invite you at our <b>Booth no. G-031, Hall No. 11.3</b> in the India Pavilion.</span></span><br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz8z6IGs29mTwKjWGKYAVHnh7v5pEoQ2jTZ_OXjWXN4K8MlczqsFieywQ6R0YLWGe6Lr8BLyTfFU5pOIexqfKXNHlILiM7V6Rbss6N3zbZcBY8fzh5Tf0uyXyJgvbdjXTLHMkkLFYLOaw/s1600/image001.png" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="60" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiz8z6IGs29mTwKjWGKYAVHnh7v5pEoQ2jTZ_OXjWXN4K8MlczqsFieywQ6R0YLWGe6Lr8BLyTfFU5pOIexqfKXNHlILiM7V6Rbss6N3zbZcBY8fzh5Tf0uyXyJgvbdjXTLHMkkLFYLOaw/s320/image001.png" width="320" /></a></div>
<span class="Apple-style-span" style="border-collapse: separate; border-spacing: 0px; font-family: Calibri;"><span class="Apple-style-span" style="color: #1f497d; font-family: Calibri, sans-serif; font-size: 15px;"><br /></span></span>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-65064358001264257152013-08-02T13:44:00.001+05:302013-08-02T13:44:48.780+05:30Monsoon Rainfall last 2 months<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD5jVYOOz_6zIm2fNYzLuPdhe345Kz6CLfm63AX_C80efFT1AQkEC7yra1U2PN_vqO5IOkqlxO6g_bHw8HVo4Zlpa2Qf6mqnnLIvkjuVDlDGipInJasFPajsCzCgzl0ehf8AS1dfthzBs/s1600/seasonal-rain.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiD5jVYOOz_6zIm2fNYzLuPdhe345Kz6CLfm63AX_C80efFT1AQkEC7yra1U2PN_vqO5IOkqlxO6g_bHw8HVo4Zlpa2Qf6mqnnLIvkjuVDlDGipInJasFPajsCzCgzl0ehf8AS1dfthzBs/s320/seasonal-rain.jpg" width="250" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-41369480393176311852013-07-30T12:49:00.001+05:302013-07-30T12:49:34.020+05:30Sesame Seed Market Report July 30th 2013<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
Hello Everyone,<br />
<br />
Time again for the sowing season in India and for bulls/bears to come out with their own adventurous stories.<br />
<br />
Sesame Market has been lackluster over the past few months with limited demand and slow international movement. The Ramadan demand did not create any ripples in the market as expected and the very strong $ has kept the prices low in international terms despite stable and high prices in local indian currency.<br />
<br />
As we all know India imported huge quantities of sesame seed from Africa this year at the start of the season and that helped sustain the demand of factories here for the full season. The domestic crop is more or less exhausted and with good 2-3 months to go before the real new crop actually arrives in the market I believe we will most likely finish everything even if things move at snail's pace.<br />
<br />
<b><u>1:- Why are the prices falling :-</u></b><br />
Everyone keeps asking the same question now, why are the prices falling when stocks are low ?<br />
<br />
The first reason ofcourse if the USD which has fallen over 10% over the past few months , in commodity terms thats like a discount of USD 200-250 /PMT despite prices being same in domestic terms in India.<br />
<br />
The second reason is slow buying from customers , I think with high levels very few take risk and have decided to go back to back on their purchase. Like i said before some people indicate that the consumption has dropped , again I never agreed with that fact. It's probably that people have low inventory rather than anything else . The overall numbers however tell a different story.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Export of Sesame Seed from India</u></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b> April 2012/March 2013 April2011/March2012</b><br />
<b> </b><br />
<b>Total (Qty/Mt) 299,517.50 389,153.50 <u><i>Less 89,636</i></u></b><br />
<br />
<b><u>Major Deviation country wise :-</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
<b>Taiwan 14970.00 24467.00 (- 9497 )</b><br />
<b>China 2807.00 11389.00 (- 8582 )</b><br />
<b>Egypt 8298.00 20402.00 (-12104)</b><br />
<b>Turkey 12610.00 16223.00 (-3613)</b><br />
<b>UAE 3730.00 6391.00 (-2661)</b><br />
<b>Vietnam 45664.00 89088.00 <u> (-43424)</u></b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>Total <u>Less <i>79,881</i></u></b><br />
<b><u><i><br /></i></u></b>
So the numbers actually say that 90% of the shortfall is due to 6 countries alone, barring UAE all the other 5 countries mostly buy Natrual so I am assuming their demand shifted to Africa because prices were low there. So i don't really see a pattern of consumption fall , its merely a shift to the cheapest source of supply which is a normal reaction in today's global scenario.<br />
<br />
The third factor is ofcourse profit booking. Since the demand was slow and most exporters unwilling to take undue risk there was profit booking at every stage which kept the prices down. Everytime there was a jump there was someone in the market willing to sell at below market price based on his stock value rather than the prevailing prices which continues to confuse and pull the prices down.<br />
<br />
Usually in a bear market i would be worried if its a supply based fall...however when the fall is demand based it usually means there are pockets of opportunity for both seller and buyers and the trends are very hard to predict.<br />
<br />
<b><u>Back to the Present :-</u></b><br />
<b><u><br /></u></b>
So what is actually happening with the new crop now. The views ofcourse differ from person to person. The monsoon has been early this year , but it has also been very strong. The sowing usually starts after we have the first few rain showers and the soil is well irrigated .<br />
<br />
Talking to the local's the sowing has started in area's where they got a chance and is good in terms of size so far , some area's ofcourse are still waiting for the rains to stop. I am usually not flattered by the sowing number's because atleast for sesame seed they are irrelevant unless we have the perfect climate during harvest. A few days of rains during harvest can change the number game drastically as we have seen in the past.<br />
<br />
Pls find below the rainfall chart for June-July and you will notice that the rains have been far far excess in all major sesame growing area's except for Rajasthan. However its still too early to say if that's good or bad. My gut feeling however say's that since sesame is so sensitive to water and with a good monsoon now confirmed the farmer's would be taking a lot of risk placing their bet's on sesame.<br />
<br />
Ofcourse the traditional sesame farmer would continue to do it , but for new acreage to be added its a risk you have to keep in mind.<br />
<br />
US$ will continue to remain volatile it seems and its movement can decide what levels we will see in the coming future. Overall I believe with low global stocks another failure or bumper crop in the coming season in India , China or Africa and turn the tide's either ways.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><i><br /></i></b>
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSdmAktNJIGqCvSkRgYHGDJPdixcuDgjqMjncuzU7jPM7P0WmpVR73ciLIfTUx1T_gpM8XO1RQ7nS0YpBZmdmVbywh12ohH8MYr1FQ1rId2bdW94WPe6FhE5GCMy2QkBaQARXfVXwEYTY/s1600/seasonal-rain.jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiSdmAktNJIGqCvSkRgYHGDJPdixcuDgjqMjncuzU7jPM7P0WmpVR73ciLIfTUx1T_gpM8XO1RQ7nS0YpBZmdmVbywh12ohH8MYr1FQ1rId2bdW94WPe6FhE5GCMy2QkBaQARXfVXwEYTY/s320/seasonal-rain.jpg" width="250" /></a></div>
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-35483868270644022332013-04-30T16:17:00.000+05:302013-04-30T16:17:31.628+05:30Sesame Seed Markets After Korean Tender April 29th 2013<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
<br />
Hello Everyone,<br />
<br />
It's been a quite 2 months in sesame seed markets , with prices staying mostly stable.<br />
Korean tender was announced on the 26thApril and India got 4800MT while Africa took 1200MT. Interesting to note that for the Machine clean Premium Quality the whole quantity went to India.<br />
<br />
The question on everyone's mind now is that despite the Korean Tender going India's way why are the prices not rising , Infact they are falling a bit. I wouldn't say dropping because 4-5% change in prices on a week to week basis is very normal movement in commodities now.<br />
<br />
My own observation in the recent times has been that just before the Korean Tender prices stay firm or rise in anticipation of something big but after the Tender is announced they tend to slip a bit. In some cases if India does not get the desired quantities its pretty obvious that prices will drop , however in cases where we do get a big chunk , like this time, prices still don't shoot up ,WHY?<br />
<br />
Well I think its mostly because the shipper's get busy preparing the cargo for exports and stop or delay fresh buying unless they were short , which in this tender was not the case. Everyone had stocks and were clearing their cargo rather than speculating. However once you get everything packed , checked and cleared its pretty normal and obvious that they will come back for some more shopping.<br />
<br />
With almost 5000 MT of Inventory cleared up from the market I would assume these players would surely come back to cover atleast 50% of this next month when the gujrat summer crop starts.<br />
<br />
<b>NUMBER GAME :- </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
In my March report we had estimated Gujrat Summer crop to be around 30-40,000 Mt , but fresh estimates and reports put this number between 15-20,000 MT.<br />
<br />
The stocks in india have gone down drastically. In case of Hulling industry I think only a few have raw material in excess of 300-400 Mt or just about a months Raw material. However there are still some stocks in Gujrat of the Imported cargo which is on offer to the highest bidders anytime. New Imports have practically stopped due to high prices in Africa.<br />
<br />
As expected Africa would continue to wait till the Ramadan demand in June-July before any panic selling starts there and by that time it would have been too late for India to import anything owing to the<br />
long transit times ( 45 days to 2 months) and previous issues with quality and delivery from Africa.<br />
<br />
Im my opinion we should almost exhaust all stocks and raw material by end of Aug-September even if the demand remains really slow and exports fall dramatically.<br />
<br />
<b>WHAT CAN HAPPEN :- </b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Just as we mentioned in our last report , there have been jumps and then correction's thereafter in the past few month. All this of course have been because of profit bookings by almost every exporter.<br />
<br />
I think this trend will continue in the months to follow till next new crop in September-October however what can change is that most of the people will exhaust their stocks pretty soon and close down. At this moment as well i assume almost 50% of the hulling factories have already taken a shut down and more will follow suit if the situation continues.<br />
<br />
If the prices continue to remain high till season end and the next new crop is delayed or is bad we expect prices to stay firm for the next season as well. With complicated import rules and with a lot of financing involved the Import of Sesame seed is only limited to a few people in India and is not lucrative until unless the price gap is big enough. Importing for re-export also means a lot of speculation in terms of Quality , Delivery period and Price fluctuation which is never the basis of a good business model.<br />
<br />
<b>CONCLUSION :-</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Overall i believe that there are some good bargains in the market available at the moment for people who wish to empty their stocks and move out however looking at the long terms picture from May till September period I do not see any big fall or corrections in the prices at the moment unless of course Africa comes out aggressively and drops its prices and some hidden stocks suddenly appear in the Indian market.<br />
<br />
For Hulled and Sortex Clean Natural India still remains the preferential and logical destination and Africa will still have to work hard to catch with the Infrastructure and Technology available here.<br />
<br />
Unlike in 2007 or like in other commodities prices of Sesame have remained Range bound over the past few months which is a good thing as the importers and their customers now have gotten used to the current price levels. For Hulled sesame the price of $2700 does not look unrealistic anymore and if the prices are corrected by a few hundred $'s for a short time it would seems attractive enough for a lot of customers to cover their needs.<br />
<br />
I would have been worried if the prices had shot up above the $3000 levels , where the pull back would have been very sharp and chances of loosing a lot of money were high. Overall I think its important to keep a watch on the markets for May-June period and cash in on any bargains for short term and it would be important for the importers to plan their demand-supply till End October because I doubt the new crop will be available in their warehouse anytime before that.<br />
<br />
<span style="background-color: white;">I never hesitate to tell a man that I am bullish or bearish. But I do not tell people to buy or sell any particular stock. In a bear market all stocks go down and in a bull market they go up.</span><span style="background-color: white;"><br /></span><br />
<br />
Happy Summers Everyone :)<br />
<br />
<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b><br /></b></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com5tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-1061231625024965652013-04-05T12:56:00.000+05:302013-04-05T12:56:13.467+05:30Gujrat Summer Crop<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
The latest rumors in the market about Summer crop are all varied. With estimates as low as 10,000 to optimistic levels of 20-25,000 MT.<br />
<br />
However looking at the water/rainfall situation it looks that in most certainty it will be a very bad crop and with stocks in India at all time low and with no chance of big shopping from Africa anymore i wonder how India will continue its supply for the next 5 months before the next new crop in Sept-October.<br />
<br />
Attached a Rainfall data for Gujrat for the last 1 Month. As you will see there is absolutely zero rainfall in all the districts and I wonder how farmers will make the sowing in such dry weather with irrigation facilities also failing.<br />
<br />
<div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;">
<a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifXNfINnl2jdR_ute47Y2xgHYemqLwzcSAjUco8102oa4kZNiSjkTd3NUUKs7kLhRYiqnScHqb5O-8jgX05Hbwjt46EAipJ9Oi4-eMMMLSijKl4COi8CP-cjPUOGZxIt3CTg68TH3EZZE/s1600/Gujsearf..jpg" imageanchor="1" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEifXNfINnl2jdR_ute47Y2xgHYemqLwzcSAjUco8102oa4kZNiSjkTd3NUUKs7kLhRYiqnScHqb5O-8jgX05Hbwjt46EAipJ9Oi4-eMMMLSijKl4COi8CP-cjPUOGZxIt3CTg68TH3EZZE/s320/Gujsearf..jpg" width="301" /></a></div>
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com3tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-77174469697339444272013-03-12T17:07:00.001+05:302013-03-12T17:07:44.453+05:30Market Report 12th March 2013<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Hello Everyone. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">I hope everyone enjoyed the roller coaster ride on the Sesame Street in the past 6 months. Happy to see that most of the predictions in my last report of October have turned out true.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">CROP SIZE :-</span></b><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">1:- Everyone expected the number's of 270,000 -280,000 MT to hold true but i think its pretty much clear that India by no means had more than 220,000-230,000 MT at most. </span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Everyone waited for the Diwali Holidays ( In my last report I did mention that things could change dramatically after Diwali ) to get over and the supply to pick up but in reality it never did and everyone was caught on the wrong foot , including a lot of Indian Exporters. The supply in the markets is still not picking up despite record high prices in Indian rupee terms which can safely be interpreted as " <b>India had a bad crop </b>".</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">2:- Globally , It is no secret that china had a small crop as well. Africa was billed to be the saviour for everyone but it turns out they too played the bluff game like India in the past :) The crops in all African origins were just about the same as pervious years and in some areas even lesser so that means the global shortfall created by Indian and Chinese bad crops cannot be fulfilled this year.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">NUMBER GAME :-</span></b><br />
<b><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">With such a dynamic broker force in place India has that edge over any other country in getting the latest report just in time before everyone else does. After people realized that India crop was not going to be enough they turned their attention to Africa. India's bought left, right and centre from all African Origins i.e Sudan , Ethiopia , Nigeria , Burkina etc and covered all their open positions. With a substantial price advantage this year a record Import of Sesame Seed happened. If the markets are to be believed India imported about 40,000-50,000 Mt , I would put the number at a 25,000-30,000 Mt mainly because their was a substantial default from African suppliers when the prices suddenly shot up and secondly because yes , Indian's did buy a lot in Africa but not all headed to India, a good chunk was exported as 3rd country trade to China, Vietnam, Turkey etc.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">This 25-30,000 MT gave India some breathing space as it covered almost 2 months demand of the hulling factories but since Imported cargo doesn't come with a credit line the money supply slowly but surely dried up. With long transit times ranging from a month to 2 months the everyday local buying slowed down considerably.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">African markets slowly caught up with Indian levels, I mean how can you expect them to keep selling cheap , it had to happen sooner or later. The Indian's stopped buying , Chinese went on their new year leave , Turkey was not very active either but still the prices in Africa remained firm and everyone wondered why. I think the obvious answer would be they got carried away and sold too much too quickly and now they dont have a lot of stocks to sell either. We should not forget their next crop comes out in Nov-Dec so thats a good 8 months away.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Ofcourse the big players in Africa have some stocks or atleast they know who has it but i doubt they will panic to sell out anytime soon enough , not until they see the Ramadan demand first which BTW falls early in August this year so the peak demand will be in June/July.</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">Just for the Numbers official figures as follow</span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> <b>Indian Exports for April to September</b></span><br />
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"> 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 18px;" /><br style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 18px;" /><b style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 18px;">April-Sept Export 207,854 180,485 ---</b></span><br />
<b style="background-color: white; color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></b>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="color: #222222;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Assuming the Indian Exports would fall by say 30-40% because a lot of clients tell me , ahhh demand is slow , people not using sesame anymore , high prices means low demand etc etc , <b>we would still need about 110-120,000 MT</b>. </span></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Oct-March numbers , for 6 months taking average monthly export to just 25,000 Mt/month , we have already exported , produced and sold about 150,000 MT . Domestically India must have consumed about 15-20,000 MT in the winter months. </span></span></span><span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; line-height: 18px;"><b>That is about 170,000 MT</b> .</span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; line-height: 18px;"><span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"> We started the season with </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">1:- Carry over stocks of not more than 10,000 Mt </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">2:- A crop of about 220,000 Mt</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">3:- Imports of about 30,000 Mt</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b>In Total About 260,000 Mt with an error margin of not more than 10% either side.</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">That leaves us all with about 90,000-100,000 MT plus the Gujrat Summer crop which is estimated at about 30,000-40,000 Mt , just enough to get through the April-Sept season. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b>WHAT CAN HAPPEN :-</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">In the past few months we have noticed that the markets in India have been range bound. Their have been a few big jumps but their was a correction soon after. The main reason i believe for this is the profit booking that happened at every high level. The Import cargo have been coming in slowly and in Dec some people booked orders based on their imported cargo prices and not the levels at which Indian markets were trading. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">Then their was the first korean Tender of the season in October , as expected India got all and everyone was bullish. The 2nd Tender came and like i mentioned in my last reports the Africans came out aggressively and Bid a huge share , that suddenly stopped the markets and it has been hovering in the 100-200$ up-down range since then, till the 3rd Tender was announced recently. India got 4200 Mt and Africa 1800 MT . However the 1800 Mt will also be shipped from India so technically all 6000 Mt will move out of India. This however was a profit booking tender as 31st March is Financial Year Ending in India and everyone would love to have good numbers in the balance sheet. The money is clearly short at the moment due to March Year closing but the 6000 Mt export should bring in some liquidity.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">In my opinion most of the Imports into India will finish this month so profit booking is almost over. Prices in Africa remain at par with India, new imports will be almost negligible. A lot of profit booking has already been done by the stockiest and i doubt they are afraid anymore of a price fall. With money shortage the stock sizes have reduced drastically which means the cargo is now spread into 100's of small farmers, traders etc making it that much more difficult to bargain.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">My opinion is that if the buyer's are still short which I think they are , and if the demand remains slow and steady their is little reason for the markets to fall. Ofcourse the reasons for price rise look more promising as Ramadan demand is totally open , China is still not fully covered , Japan I am sure is the same .Korea will continue its buying irrespective of the price levels and if the Summer crop fails I cant even imagine what will happen.</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b>CONCLUSION :-</b></span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><b style="line-height: 18px;">I am still bullish. </b><span style="line-height: 18px;">The prices have increased by about 25-30% from the season's low in October which is nothing really that dramatic looking at the global situation. A lot of people tell me demand will shrink , somehow I never believed that demand shrinks , it just moves from one place/person to another. Its unbelievable the growth story in Middle east , just like in china the sesame oil demand suddenly picked up I am sure the same will happen with the middle east in terms of Tahina/Halva/Hummus/Bakery consumption and demand in years to come. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">If the demand/consumption does really shrink , I am sure the supply will not increase either , so sesame business should get more & more concentrated in the coming years with lots and lots of money involved and added risk of volatility. </span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;">When someone says sesame is not attractive to them anymore please don't forget that their is always someone ready to take your place , The only way to win is by staying in the game , it will be a tough game ahead but as they say " No Pain , No Gain" .</span></span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><b><br /></b></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span style="line-height: 18px;"><br /></span></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com9tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1251303988800402288.post-63737863618662406362012-10-17T19:54:00.001+05:302012-10-18T16:21:23.257+05:30Market Report October 17th 2012<div dir="ltr" style="text-align: left;" trbidi="on">
<br />
I am sure last few days have been busy for everyone. Everyone was waiting to get some numbers on the new season and last week our association IOPEPC finally came out with some.<br />
<br />
It was great to know that the market report was being circulated in real time by some of our friends. I actually got an SMS IN the conference hall with the same crop numbers on the screen even before the presentation was over , it was hilarious :) but that's India for everyone.<br />
<br />
Now to some interesting facts and numbers , which most of you probably are already familiar with.<br />
<br />
<b>NEW CROP SCENARIO :-</b><br />
<br />
1:- Total Crop Predicted in the range of <b>270,000 MT -280,000 MT.</b> Since this year the crop survey was done by an outside agency and not by the people of the trade i would take this number to be more or less accurate with 10% margin on either side.<br />
<br />
I really hope the error is on the higher side because a crop less than 250,000 would be a real bad situation for the trade.<br />
<br />
2:- UP/MP is about 150,000 MT put in total so thats where most of the cargo will come from as always. Rajasthan about 80,000 Mt and Gujarat about 25-30,000 Mt at Max . Since most of the Rajasthan/Gujarat crop will anyways go for Natural 99/1,98/2 grade , everyone can safely save on the "Gujarat Origin Hulled" premium till summer crop next year , because I don't think after taking out the natural grades and stockist share there is much available for hulling.<br />
<br />
3:- Globally , China is short and thats a confirmation as well , though various trade organization and sources. The shortfall compared to last year is about 100,000 Mt , which is just about the same as India.<br />
So overall the world shortage about 200,000MT which need to be filled, from where and hows lets see.<br />
<br />
3:- African all origins are doing well this year. All the crops that have come out till now have been good and almost same as their previous years.However the 2 biggest crops from Africa i.e Ethiopia and Sudan are yet to be harvested and if reports are to be believed the sowing and weather have all been good. If anyone can fill the 200,000 Mt global gap its these 2 countries.<br />
<br />
4:- The carry over stocks worldwide in all producing and consuming countries have been less than previous years as well , that again is a confirmation and no rumor or else we would not be in a situation as we are today.<br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>NUMBER GAME</b> <b> :-</b><br />
<br />
India crop as I reported in my last report is late . Almost all the reasons we predicted were indeed spot on for the small crop this year round.<br />
<br />
I know some would say last year as well we had predicted a small crop ( SEPT 15th 2011) report and stated bullishness and were wrong. I agree. We did go wrong on the preditions but like i always say , I just compile what i hear from sources and yes we were wrong on the Number but not on the bullishness factor. Markets did remain bullish all throughout , its just that the customers did not feel the pinch because the USD from Rs.44 in Aug 11 moved to Rs. 57 in Aug 2012. This year however i think chances of a reversal are more than further weakness. Its already down to Rs 53 from Rs 57 highs.<br />
<br />
Looking at some numbers :-<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 281px;">
<!--StartFragment-->
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 3669; mso-width-source: userset; width: 86pt;" width="86"></col>
<col span="3" style="width: 65pt;" width="65"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt; width: 86pt;" width="86"></td>
<td align="right" class="xl66" style="border-left: none; width: 65pt;" width="65">2010</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">2011</td>
<td align="right" class="xl68" style="width: 65pt;" width="65">2012</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Gujarat</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">50</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">40</td>
<td align="right" class="xl64">20</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Rajastan</td>
<td align="right" class="xl69">130</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">110</td>
<td align="right" class="xl68">80</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">MP</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">70</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">50</td>
<td align="right" class="xl64">70</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">UP</td>
<td align="right" class="xl69">80</td>
<td align="right" class="xl67">100</td>
<td align="right" class="xl68">80</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl65" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">Maharastra</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">10</td>
<td align="right" class="xl65">10</td>
<td align="right" class="xl64">10</td>
</tr>
<tr height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">
<td class="xl67" height="15" style="height: 15.0pt;">'000 MT</td>
<td align="right" class="xl69"><b>340</b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl67"><b>310</b></td>
<td align="right" class="xl68"><b>260</b></td>
</tr>
<!--EndFragment-->
</tbody></table>
<br />
In the past 2 years the India exports have been<br />
<br />
2010-11 2011-12 2012-13<br />
<br />
<b>Sesame Export 398,000 399,000 ---</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
Ofcourse the Export numbers include the Brown and Crushing grade Sesame as well which comes from other states than the above mentioned 5 and the summer crop production , but this also includes the Hulled Sesame and Cleaned Sesame Numbers which means a lot more quantity in terms of farm level. Not to forget the Domestic demand also came out from these production numbers .<br />
<br />
So what does these numbers suggest? I would say 2 things<br />
<br />
a:- If the global demand remains the same , India is short on supply this year for sure.<br />
<br />
b:- Carry over stocks have mostly been consumed over the past few years due to mismatch production and Export numbers.<br />
<br />
<b>WHAT CAN ALSO HAPPEN :-</b><br />
<br />
There have been some news of late sowing in the market. The current trend is to underplay that news because no one wants to be out of the pack trying to justify that there could be a bearish factor as well in the near future. I am not sure how big or small that late sowing crop could be but if a significant number comes out in late november it could stall if not derail the bullish trend for a while.<br />
<br />
Africa comes out in December and that can be a game changer. With the excess stocks they have in hand they can really go full throttle on the sales and come out with aggressive prices and take away the advantage from India. It could lead to be a cat and mouse game after that. India will drop its prices to recapture the market, Africa with its bumper crop will drop further and we see a crash as we have seen many a times in India. But there is a big IF in this situation , IF africa comes out with the numbers projected so far because the carryover in Africa are not significant either so this game cannot be played with cards in hand , it will all depend on the cards that are dealt to us in December.<br />
<br />
The demand can and probably will shrink a bit as well as we have seen in the past with higher levels. At high levels the risk capacity reduces significantly and people tend to start focussing on other money making avenues to cut their risk. The consumption slows down and people tend to stock very little or prefer back to back trade which in turn makes the market nervous and keep the price movements limited.<br />
<br />
Koreans have been a significant market movers in the past few years and any infiltration on this front by african players can set the cat amongst the pigeon and pull down the market, India will have to be competitive enough to grab the korean market share again. We shall know that in a few days time as a 6000 MT Korean is scheduled for 24th October. Maybe the africans will not be aggressive in this one but the price acceptance should prepare the african contingent for the next battle.<br />
<br />
<b>WHAT HAS CHANGED :-</b><br />
<br />
A lot of people when talking of sesame this year start the comparison with the 2007-2008 yr where the markets went crazy and beyond anyone's wild imagination. There are also comparisons with what happened in GUAR GUM with their unbelievable growth in the past few years.<br />
<br />
However there are a few changes i believe since then that we should keep in mind<br />
<br />
1:- In 2007 , China was short and Africa was short . India was the only supplier so technically what happened in India that year should happen in Africa this year. With no cargo or with most swept and locked warehouse what are you left with to sell. When we dont have anything to sell the price could be anything but you are not making money , right.<br />
<br />
2:- In 2007 China had recently become a next importer , till 2001-2 it was also an exporter with a huge crop. Their crop was going down slowly , their domestic demand was picking up and they started cutting down on export when 2007 happened and suddenly they had a very short crop and they were caught offguard. At that point they primarily preferred india to cater to their imports and that led to a very bullish buying from India.<br />
<br />
Now ofcourse the situation is entirely different , they import most of their requirements from Africa and will look first towards Africa to fill in their crop deficit. The Border trade with India should continue as well. This time their import numbers suggest that they were well prepared for a short crop and hence started to clean up the African stocks much in advance. However their stocks are still at lower levels and they will have to buy soon.<br />
<br />
3:- The $ was not as much volatile back then at is now , with 1% +/- movements on a daily basis and 10% or more movement over a full year horizon.<br />
<br />
4:- The demand has certainly grown as well in the past 5 years where as the crops have not grown in tandem.<br />
<br />
<b>CONCLUSION :-</b><br />
<b><br /></b>
<b>We are BULLISH. </b>No doubt about that. I think if someone manages to catch the bottom levels there are good chances they will make money on a long term basis this year. YES , there will be up's and down's. There will be times of low demand , there will be times of global competitiveness but on a long terms basis , on a 12 month scenario till next crop we are definitely bullish.<br />
<br />
The new crop as predicted is late and not even fully out in the market but we saw some upwards movement already. I think it was more of a panic situation after hearing the numbers. I do expect some corrections in the coming weeks as farmers/stockist will first test the waters by letting out the first arrivals before holding back and that is when the game really starts. However mistakes and misses are most likely to happen in the falling market so everyone really needs to be on their toes for the next few weeks. Things could change drastically after Diwali.<br />
<br />
That said , If things turn out to be the way they are expected , my previous JULY 19th report about benchmark reset should stand correct and Sesame for the near future will not be a sub 2000$(Hulled) commodity anymore.<br />
<br />
People have been talking about 100-150% growth in price , I once again wish i knew the limits but in a bullish year and the current volatile global market situation it should not be wrong to wish for atleast 50% price growth. Im sure everyone can do the maths on this.<br />
<br />
Once again our suggestion would be to be in the market all the time rather than waiting for the bottom levels. A good average is more likely to ease off the pressure than having sleepless nights to catch the bottom the next morning.<br />
<br />
Like always would be nice to have your suggestions and comments. We can connect on Skype :- mukulgupta78 or you can mail me anytime on mukul@shakumbhri.org.<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br />
<br /></div>
Sesameseedhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/10343411087838334149noreply@blogger.com14