Search This Blog

Wednesday, April 4, 2007

MARKET REPORT - JANUARY 18th , 2007



In continuation to my last report , prices have more or less stabilized with minor up's and down as per demand and supply.
The US$ remains volatile though at lower levels effecting the prices.
The local/domestic demand which had created a panic like situation has slowed down and the Export demand which was slow during holiday season is showing sighs of recovery despite this the prices have managed to stay more or less constant,indicating the bottom line resistance just as we had anticipated.
I believe most buyers domestic & overseas are now covered for their short term requirements upto Feb-Mar, so we don't see a big buying coming in the market for the time being unless everyone suddenly decides to step in the market to cover their long term, so there is little to panic.
However we must keep a close watch on the Korean Tenders,rumors of demand from Turkey/Middle east as African prices continue to remain high and maybe the return of Chinese demand in March after the end of their New Year Holidays , upon which they would have substantially depleted their existing stocks.
The arrivals from farmers have dwindled and we might not see fresh arrivals in the market beyond Mid Feb after which the prices will be stock driven.The crop situation is now almost clear and with evident figures of arrival in Gujrat,Maharastra Rajasthan over the last 90 days we can now safely say that their crop is indeed a failure and may not cross 70-80,000 Mt put together and the U.P/M.P crop put together will be around 175,000 Mt against initial estimates of 200,000 Mt.
However all these figures have little impact on prices for now but it has definetly resulted in a lot of stocking this year. Also as stated in my last report the news of weak mustard/rapeseed crop is also keeping a check on prices. This year in India we are facing a very dry and
comparatively a timid winter which is effecting most winter crops grown here ,this is the biggest oilseed crop season in India and a bad crop of Mustard/Rapeseed could have great impact on other oilseeds in the coming months.
I still believe between now and Mid March there will be some great windows to cover your requirements at attractive prices as the short term players in India would bea eager to exit from sesame to other commodities.After that its only the strong holders in the market who are anticipating a rise and probably would not offer a discounted price in a rush , however we still don't see a vast price rise in long term either,maybe in line of a average 1.5%-2% /Month from Feb onwards.
The news from Africa confirms a good crop this year well but its still too early to asses the size,by the time African crop make any impact on international prices we would have entered into a phase where India will have sold/consumed most of its crop and stockist would determine the prices.Latest news from Africa also confirm that the prices are still high there.

No comments: