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Wednesday, September 9, 2009


I am sure everyone is awaiting the new crop arrival of Sesame Seed in India. The crop as we all know by now is a little delayed.Usually we see the 60 Days crop of Gujrat coming out by Early September and the normal crop by Mid of September after which U.P/M.P/Rajasthan crop follow around end October and early October.
However this year we think the whole crop is delayed by about 2 weeks so we don't see the arrival pressure's building before Mid of October or also possibly by 2nd half October as the Diwali festival in India is on the 17th Oct and farmers and traders are usually on a week's break during this festive period.
The crop situation has thankfully improved a lot over the past 2 weeks as compared to what it was perceived in early August with a very bad monsoon situation.In certain areas the drought is still very severe and we expect crop failure's in those areas, these area mainly fall in the Rajasthan/U.P/M.P border region.
The sowing this year started a little late and then we saw a big gap between the rains, some areas were able to sustain this period and with the rains back now we hope all will be alright.The only doubt that remains is a situation like last year where late rains resulted
in a huge crop damage at the time of harvest.
As of now from what we have heard and seen , India's crop distribution should be as follows
--------------------------------2008 Crop----------2009 Crop Estimates (Mts)
U.P/MP-------------------- 85,000 MT ---------- 130,000 MT
Rajasthan----------------- 90,000 MT---------- 80,000 MT
Gujrat ---------------------- 60,000 MT---------- 60,000 MT
Others--------------------- 10,000 MT---------- 10,000 MT
Total -----------------------245,000 MT---------- 280,00 MT
Last year old crop is almost zero with only limited stocks available due to the bumper Summer crop we had in Gujarat earlier this year. Taking this into account we assume that market should remain stable this year at some lower levels , but this will again all depend on the Chinese demand and African crop which come out in Nov end/Dec this year.
Chinese are said to be having a good crop this year but as a fact we all know they will still need more than they can produce and will certainly buy from cheaper origins whenever possible.
Once again as you know in India things are a little different and we tend to overreact most of the time , ignoring smaller details and reacting in haste. We have already seen some low prices offers going out of India in the last 2 weeks after news of a good crop started to spread around but we still advice the buyers to be patient and not promote speculations as these speculators will then jump to buy in at the very arrival of new crop and give support to prices as they did last year.Which would eventually mean that prices may not actually fall as much as they should in the start of the season and will fall after these buyers cover themselves putting everyone in a bad position.
I'll keep this report short this time and hope to give in more details and numbers by the month end .

Please feel free to ask anymore questions that you may have.We also look forward to seeing you at our booth in Anuga next month.
Kind Regards,
Mukul Gupta
Shakumbhri Expo Impo Ltd,
4.5 Km Bhopa Road ,Muzaffarnagar , Uttar Pradesh , India , Pin - 251001.
Ph :- 91 131 2990062,2615164 , Fax:- 91 131 2615165 , Mob:- 91 9837084355
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Skype :- mukulgupta78