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Saturday, September 27, 2008

SIAL , PARIS 2008


We cordially invite you to visit our Stand in SIAL ,Paris 19th-23rd Oct at the India Pavilion , Hall 4.

It will be our honor and pleasure to have your presence at our stall.

We look forward to seeing you in Paris.

Wednesday, September 17, 2008

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED SEPTEMBER 17TH , 2008

If we could explain in one word the current situation about Sesame Seed in India, the word would be " NERVOUS". Its been very strange last few months, a lot of people were bearish till two month ago , the same people turned bullish after the news of bad crop in U.P and M.P and the same people are bearish again as the news of a good crop in China started to spread around.

It seems like the very same reasons that took the markets to dizzy heights last year are holding it back this year around. If you refer to our market report of September 2007 ( Refer to http://sesameseedmarket.blogspot.com/ for old reports) you will notice that our main concern's then were the Shortfall in Chinese Crop and the falling USD against Indian currency which made the exports actually look more expensive than they actually were.

This year its again the same factors but totally reversed , China is said to have a better crop than last year which means that instead of "compulsive" buying which it had to do last time it can wait for the best opportunities and the cheapest destinations. The USD has appreciated by about 10% in the last 2 months and have made the prices look cheaper than they actually are in comparison to the local prices here in India which remain more or less constant with no major fall in the past 3-4 weeks. Of course we still expect that prices can go down further as and when the new crop arrivals start in full swing.

Its actually nice to see that the buyers have not panicky yet and have waited and covered only as per their requirements which has created stability in the market and a few traders and brokers have already started to get nervous and offering throw away price. However I think with all the bitter experiences of last year the buyers will be much better judges of character and service this year round.

After the high's of last year and the prices down by almost 50% compared to those high levels,
it is an open secret that current levels are very very attractive to the Importers despite the global slowdown in all Oil seeds but the fact remains is that just like the prices could not have kept going north it cannot just keep falling as well. I wish it was possible to judge the bottom but like last year we once again believe it is better to have the best lowest average price rather than knowing or missing
the lowest price.

The crop situation in India remains almost same as till 3-4 weeks ago, it has been raining heavily in Rajasthan and Gujrat in the past week and that is some concern again.Its not possible to judge the damage at such and early stage but we hope all keeps well. U.P and M.P are confirm to have not more than 50% of their total of last year and that should keep the stockists and speculators busy.Once again we think the up's and down's will be in quantum from now on as with the changing trends the degree of price variation is no more in small proportions but in 2-3 or more percentage points on daily/weekly basis.

The sowing in Africa is supposed to have started and we should get some news by next month about their sowing pattern's and estimates.The crop damage in Myanmar (Burma) is also confirmed and that should have some affect on china as a lot of that cargo goes to China through unofficial trade channels. The real impact of that will be known around End Oct/Early Nov when the real Chinese demand starts to build up in preparation for their New Year in January.

Our Initial Estimates for the India crop size is as follows

Origin Estimates Aug (Mts) Estimates in Sept (Mts)
U.P/MP 110,000 100,000
Rajasthan 110,000 100,000
Gujrat 70,000 70,000
Others 10,000 10,000
300,000 280,000


We also take the opportunity of inviting you to visit our Stall at SIAL , Paris from Oct -19th-23rd this year at the India Pavilion.It would be our pleasure and honor to meet you there.