Markets as expected this year were bearish , however the fall has been substantially more that anyone expected. The major factor to this probably is a huge buffer stock that China had at the start of the season and a very big crop in India. The currency fluctuation in India as well as in Africa have impacted hugely to this fall as well.
Looking at the current situation it is evident that almost all of the trade is stuck with some high priced cargo in their warehouses , some are moving is quickly some waiting for th tides to turn. However i believe in a few months time the stocks and prices will balance out itself and the trade will start to move smoothly. There is little chance of a huge upturn at the moment as few African nation’s will harvest their crops in the coming months and India will also have their summer crop as well.
The farm arrivals in India have dropped as expected but there is still a huge stock in the warehouses which will easily sustain the little demand that will flow for the next few months, looking ahead i believe there will be some high’s in times to come but i doubt they will be sustainable for long periods. In general terms for the next 6 months , 180 days till the next big crop in China and India is harvested i see more days with stable or falling market than upward movement.
Once again i doubt there is a fall in consumption worldwide its just that people do not want to stock more than they actually need which is keeping the markets bearish. Everyone has their own idea of bottom levels and frankly speaking my levels have already been breached so cannot put a finger on a level where the markets will finally stop at. However at current levels the prices do look attractive and chances of loosing money on stocks at current levels are slim.