Brief Sesame Seed Market Report March 2008

We had the pleasure of attending the "2008 China Conference on Sesame & Sesame Products (CCSSP)" which

was held in Beijing , China last week. The meeting was attended by many prominent speakers and traders from world over.

There were detailed discussions and presentation on various crops and stocks from India, China and African origin and the changing trends in world market.I would like to summarize the observations that I was able to make there , the below are my own interpretations on the points that were discussed there and may vary from other eminent people who were attending.

1:- The World stocks which include the stocks at Chinese ports , new crop arrivals in South America , Africa along with the stocks in China ,India and the estimated holding stocks with buyers do not seem to exceed the total volume of 215,000 -225,000 MT's.

2:- Many destinations in Africa including Ethiopia are almost over with their stocks and the little that are left there are in very strong hands and will not move out in low levels and the stockiest are not in a hurry to sell at the moment.

3:- The world demand estimated on import data's from past few years reflect that the total average demand should be in the range of 290,000-300,000 Mt for the coming 5 months before any other major crops comes out, this is including the traditional high period demand in the coming months for Ramadan but not including the occasional demand that may arise due to Beijing Olympics this year or the annual growth of about 4% in demand which has been recorded over the past few years. About 500,000 tourist from abroad and 6 Million visitor from within China are expected to arrive in Beijing over a period of 20 Days during the Olympics.

4:- The total shortfall in the world trade this year could be around 80-90,000 MT.

There seems to a large changing trends that has been observed in the world market over past few years , even with high prices it has been noticed that Sesame used in Tahini/Halva in the middle eastern countries has become a energy food for the poor there which is unlikely to be replaced with any other commodity in the near future.Although it is hard to sell with the high prices but it still remains a very important food ingredient there for the poor. The same goes for Chinese food habits where Sesame Oil despite high prices remains an integral and irreplaceable part of their staple diet.

We observed that there is also a new market that is developing with high prices of Sesame seeds where it is finding its way in the food chain along with various nuts as a high priced food garnish in gourmet food across restaurants. Talking to various people we learned that with high prices it is getting difficult for the end users to justify the price of simple dishes but with little garnish of sesame or nuts they can present their menu better and get better price realization. Like we say in India " Food is first for the eyes and then for the Tongue".

Prices in India remain firm , for the first time in 5 months we saw a correction in the mid of Feb after a Ban on export Edible Oil was imposed by the Govt of India , there was a big rumor that the next logical step if the prices in domestic prices do not stabilize would be banning of Export of Edible Seeds which would also include Sesame. That would certainly mean that prices in global markets would jump to unimaginable levels .

Corrections as we expected were inevitable but surprisingly have come not due to lack in demand but due to the Ban scare.

The ban is still a possibly so we suggest that buyer take precaution and call for their cargo as soon as possible and stock in their warehouses in case of any eventuality.Rising food prices are a concern of the Govt's worldwide and a similar concern was presented by the Myanmar contingent as well and they are also facing a possibility of an Export ban this year. Myanmar have had Sesame Seed export prohibitions earlier as well so a new ban cannot be ruled out ,in which case their exports which mainly goes to China will have to be supplemented from other destinations creating additional pressure in the market.

It was also noticed that Europe seems to be the only destination where the concentration of Sesame Imports is on Hulled Sesame more than Natural grade, the Hulled Sesame unlike Natural has production restrictions and at present India seems to have captured about 60-65% of the world's , the other major destinations supplying Hulled Sesame are mostly catering to a very different market.Hence it seems that there cannot be a huge stock of Hulled anywhere

with any buyer's in the world, certainly not to the extent that it could last them for 5-6 months before new supplies start. Ofcourse if someone decides to drop their sales volume over this period it's a different story but with regular sales the stocks are definitely not enough and that is the reason we have seen slow but steady buying even at higher levels.Most buyers have held back their buying but we hope and expect the demand to resume anytime soon.

Koreans picked up 1200 MT Crushing Quality Sesame from India and 300 MT from China at $2400 /PMT levels and another Korean tender for about 4000 MT is expected to be announced soon.We could see some profit booking in these but that would only mean more buying at local levels keeping the supplies tight.Markets in India have been quite over the last few weeks mainly due to the Ban scare and also due to the liquidity problem in the market,with end of Financial year in India on 31st March the cash flow problems multiply even more.

Overall as we expected right from the start of the season the market is still bullish and as we expected the jumps have been quantum in nature this year.We expect the trend to continue , its getting to a stage where selling at market price will become difficult only if one can make an average of all his buying the prices can be matched, that is the reason the buyers must have noticed the huge price differential in the market at the moment.We expect another quantum jump anytime the cash problem is solved and as time goes the scare of Ban will also subside which will renew the stockiest confidence.

Sesame Seed Market Report 5th Feb,2008

Dear Sir/Madam,

As we are all already aware its been a roller coaster ride in the Sesame Seed market this year. Infact not just the sesame seeds but primarily all oil seeds and commodities are trading at their all time peaks.

Its a known fact now that the global output is way way short than expected while the demand remains strong and steady.We saw a slight correction in the prices after the 2800 Mt Korean Tender last month and after 3 cancellation the Koreans only managed a discount on about 50$ from the opening price and in the process Pakistan and African bids were taken back , giving strong indications that they are not sellers at low levels.

Africa notably Sudan and Ethiopia made huge supplies earlier to China and seem to be in no mood of selling in a hurry.We should also keep in mind that since Africa entered the market at a stage when global prices were already very high their stocking is also of a very high average price and in a panic market as this year they would well want to make big profits on those levels so any big correction there could be ruled out.

It is estimated that good Quality Natural Sesame from Africa are being traded at around $1900-$2000 levels.If we go by past experience the peak demand for African crop is yet to arrive which is before the month long Holy Ramadan which starts on 1st September this year well ahead of any new crop arrival from any origin. The demand for this should pick up around July/August. We wonder what the situation will be like then and fear that the importers might resolve to buying earlier than expected in anticipation of making profits in case there is situation of short supply.Unlike US and Europe where the demand will take a hit owing to high prices as Sesame might not be a necessary condiment in the Middle East and Indonesian demand is likely to be strong and steady for the period as eating Tahini/Halva and various other Sesame based products is almost ritualistic.

Scaringly enough the much awaited Beijing Olympics are in August as well and if the Chinese preparations and their disastrous crop is to be kept in mind we see no reason why they should not be back to buy huge loads around mid year as well. The Chinese demand is sluggish at the moment as they go for their long New Year Celebrations.With very cold winter that they are facing this year , chances are that consumption of Sesame Oil will go up as reported to us by a few of our clients there. The stocks in China remain limited and could well serve them for a few more months after which they are likely to be back in the market to cover more.We believe that the Chinese aggressive buying and quick decision policy has always given them good returns as this year and 4 years before as well when they had a crop shortage.Unlike most they seem to acknowledge and know the fact that their crop is barely enough to cover their needs and any shortfall has to be supplemented from elsewhere and this is the reason they were the first to buy from India and Africa early on at very attractive levels whereas the rest of the world waited and waited for corrections.This is the reason we believe if they are back to buy they WILL buy at all levels and probably clean up the stocks this time.

Zero stocks are nothing new these days , we have seen that happen in Africa last year where they finished every last tonne by Oct and India barely had anything last year to carry forward ,we could be facing the same in Guatemala and other Central American Countries this year. The Japanese are heard to be buying aggressively from Central America and even making advance contracts specially in countries like Bolivia and Paraguay. Bolivia and Paraguay are also reported to have a smaller crop as compared to last year.

Prices for Guatemala hulled are heard to be around $3500 FOB and the supply remains limited.They traditionally cater to a very large segment in North America and though the top end companies with money power may well be able to absorb the high prices a small segment from that market is bound to be diverted to the so called " Common" Indian Hulled Sesame creating additional demand.

The stocks in India remain limited , the fresh arrivals are virtually over and all the cargo is coming out from the stockiest. Prices have almost doubled from the season start so most stockiest have sold 50% of their stocks and recovered their principle amount. They are now sitting entirely on their profits and only the ones who like to maintain their cash flow are selling. This means that unlike previous years all stocks this year are in hands of strong stockiest. The domestic demand which goes down by Mid Jan has picked up vigorously in the past 2 weeks after a cold wave in the entire North India which the main consumer of the winter time sesame demand. The temp are at 50 year peak and touching 0 degree in some places which is quite uncommon in India at this time of the year.

There is a huge cash flow problem due to this sudden rise and this is the reason why we are seeing sudden burst in prices and then a calm period when people buy.Many stockiest have already sold out and encashed their profit which is very strange even for us as these were the people who normally had stocks all they way till September.The situation is so critical here in India that even 10-20 FCL worth of buying can push up the market by 20-30$'s at any point of time. Once again corrections cannot be ruled out , without those the prices as they say will not make a base , but looking at the current situation even the stable prices should be considered as a correction and a buying

opportunity and it would be very optimistic to wait for big fall.

It is a fact that compared to previous years the long term business this year is negligible and it is virtually impossible to believe if someone says that they are covered for the entire season , that could only mean that they are cutting out on a huge volume and out of the market, otherwise the demand undercurrent is definitely there in the market. People still need to cover and that's a fact , what remains to be seen is till what levels can the market stretch itself before we hit the peak and till when are the buyers willing to wait.

We must also keep in mind that around May/June the farmers come back into the market to purchase seeds for resowing. Each farmer may buy only a few Kg's but keeping in mind that sowing is done in million of hectare and each hectare requires several Kg's it cumulates into a very big quantity.The farmers in Gujarat may find that easy as there is summer crop in April/May for about 10-15,000 Mt but in the U.P ,M.P and Rajasthan which are nowthe main sesame growing areas , more and more farmers are likely to try their hand on sesame growing and that could mean requirement of much muchmore resowing seeds.

Personally speaking we see a strong bottom like resistance at $ 2000-$2100 FOB for Hulled and on the higher levels @ $ 2700 which basically is Rupee 100/KG mark in local prices terms and Rs 100 is a lot of money for 1 Kg of Sesame in India.If we can cross that then if could go up another few $100's.

A small 1500 Mt Korean Tender for Crushing Quality is on the 11th Feb and a bigger one of about 5000 Mt (unconfirmed) later this month.

Korean Tender 20th December

The Korean Tender for the month of December was officially announced today.

Surprisingly India received all 3500 MT . The price range was as below

500 MT @ USD 1441

500 MT @ USD 1469

500 MT @ USD 1469

1500 MT @ USD 1475

500 MT @ USD 1275 , 90/10 Quality.

Once again the surprising factor remains the absence of aggressive African Bid ,Pakistan as we had discussed

previously seems to be out of action this year.As we mentioned in our past reports the African's we believe are

more content feeding the Chinese demand and are still not eager sellers at lower prices.

The price at which this Tender was taken by India also does not reflect the existing market situation here,

It seems like this tender is more of a average price which the bidding companies have managed to make over the

last 2 months and a effort to test the market sentiments .

The African prices evidently are still much higher and despite the fact that compared to last tender the prices are up

by about $350 already it still leaves a little more to achieve for the next one. The next Tender is rumored to be in

Early Jan for about 6000 Mt.

Market sentiments remain bullish in India on long term , once again periodic corrections cannot be ruled out.

Market was very quite for the past 10 days and despite that we did not witness any big fall , it just moved

sideways most of the time with occasional ups and down depending upon demand justifying the fact that

the market base is strong this year.The scary part remains that despite almost 80 days since new crop

arrivals started not once did we see the markets slide in the natural course due to heavy or excess arrivals.

The small corrections that we did notice were more because of market sentiments from time to time.

Whenever the prices dropped the arrivals went down in correlation as the farmers seem to be very well

connected with day to day movements in the market now.

Arrivals have been very steady for the last 2 months and in the last 2 weeks have started to go down as well ,

which is ofcourse the normal trend every year, arrivals will carry on till Jan after which the game shifts to the stocks.

Prices have shot up by almost 40-45% and we doubt that the crop is being held back at farm levels. A lot of

profit booking has already happened on the stocks as well and now the existing stocks are most probably

of the Mid level range.The stocks this year seem to be in the hands of Big players with good holding

power and with 10 months to go before the next arrivals we don't see them panicking anytime soon,

specially when they have already taken part of their profits home.

We must also take the fact into consideration that this year almost everyone sooner or later did cover all their sales

in advance creating a cash flow problem so not much buying is happening at the moment locally and not much business

has been done for long term so that buying is yet to come in later around Jan End/Feb once the old orders finish.

We must also acknowledge that fact that as on date the suppliers and Stockiest from India still have a average to play with ,

whereas the Africans started their crop with Zero carry over and at very high levels , that means their stocking

is also being done at much higher levels.Indian prices will fall only if African prices go down but if African prices

go down that would mean that 100 % of the stockiest and sellers there would be making a loss. What are the

chances that Africa suddenly drops their prices by few hundred $'s just to sell and make a huge loss

rather than wait for a few months for the demand to pick up during Ramadan or wait for Chinese demand to

resume later in the season ,specially when they know their crop and the global crop is weaker compared to last year.

We look forward to your comments and queries and hope to continue serving you trustfully as always.

We wish everyone a A MERRY XMAS and a VERY HAPPY NEW YEAR.

MARKET REPORT SESAME SEED December 4th

We are sure by now everyone is already aware of the drastic changes that have happened since our last market reports.This time however it is global and not just confined to India and hence probably here to stay for long term.Thankfully there were no new Korean Tenders or else it wouldhave been even worse we believe.However there is some unconfirmed news in the market that we may have a Tender very soon this month.

As we have been pointing out ever since July this time that China factor despite what many people thought otherwise was very crucial.The fact remains that their crop was a disaster and they need Sesame Seed for consumption at all costs , if they get it cheap its fine but even at high prices they shall remain in the market.

In our last report we mentioned that the arrivals did not pick up since the new crop came out and we expected them to rise after Diwali which surprisingly they did not as well. The covering pressure which took the prices up early on in the season soon became a buying one. There have been several crop estimate revisions since the sowing this year , from Double to 1.5 times to same but looking at the arrival situation in the last 60 days since new crop started we believe the latest is as below.

Origin	Initial estimates In mt	First revision in mt	Second revision in mt
MP/UP	250,000	180,000	150,000
Rajasthan	100,000	90,000	75,000
Gujarat	50,000	40,000	35,000
Others	20,000	15,000	10,000
Total	420,000	325,000	270,000

As we all know the arrivals from farm levels go on for about 3 months , so taking that into consideration we can safely say about 60% is already out which leaves very little to count on in the coming month.From the initial a huge huge quantitywas sold to China , ofcourse not all will touch their shores as we have already heard about a lot of defaults happening , but never the less the quantum remains big.What has also happened this year was that most stockiest did not get a chance at lower levels to cover as from Day 1 we were talking about a good crop and the buyers kept feeding everyone here about the possible decline once Africa enters the market , this hesitancy did not allow a lot of stocking and the little that happened was sold with the recent high levels, from what we know through our suppliers is that stocking this year is almost 50% of what it was last year and this could be a real tricky situation later on in the year.Moreover the major stocks this year are in the hands of Big boys and strong stockiest who will not panic to sell very easily.

Another 10-15% rise cannot be ruled out not just because of the global reasons but also as traditionally prices do go up about 15-18% from season start prices by Aug-Sep anyways with the interest and warehousing expenses on the stocks. The prices may seem very high this year but if you compare with last year prices they have actually just above the last years highest levels by 4-5% in Local Rupee terms, it just so happens to be a few months quicker that's it, in US$ terms ofcourse it seems like 15-20% higher.The domestic demand in india has not yet picked up fully and likely to pick up pace soon as well , this demand is usually of the Hulled grade so we may see some pressure in that sector soon.

Africa was and still remains the only factor which could have and can stop this emphatic price rise , but as we mentioned early on with global markets the new travels fast and they knowing that their last crop last them barely 10 months in normal buying condition , this year with increased demand and reduced crop they shall literally have no selling pressure at all and the chances of a major correction for long term seems highly unlikely.Their prices as you will notice are very smartly valued at 7-8% above India,giving them a good market share of the Chinese demand with not much problem.We think this should remain the trend for the coming months as well.

The advantage of selling east is also much bigger than selling to Europe or the USA. The financial rotation is faster because of the low transit time and better payment conditions and also much lesser hassles in terms Quality requirement.This is prompting a lot of traders and Exporters to sell very competitively and with huge volumes there ,creating extra pressure in the market.

We all know that the Central American crop is no good this time , Mexico and Guatemala are priced very high due to their crop damage and that can complex the situation further. Moreover most buyers did not have much old crop carry over as everyone expected prices to fall at the start of the new season , when prices opened at similar levels they waited for the correction which unfortunately never came.We believe that the stocks in Europe , US and other major countries is not enough for them to refrain them from re-entering the markets at some point soon.We understand that these high levels will take time to get accepted with the End users but with global food prices of nearly all commodities shooting up it shall be accepted sooner or later.Sometimes its not the question of price

but of requirement , ofcourse their will be a demand crop but that will inconsequential in comparison to the global shortfall.

Later in the season there is Ramadan early into the Year and the Chinese Olympics , going by past experience these

events do bring in optimistic and concentrated demand in the market as well and with no other origins coming out with new crops at that particular period we could see some eager buying.

Once again the rise and fall's will be in Quantums as we have been saying before.Corrections cannot be ruled out and they probably will happen many times , its upto the buyers to judge what the right levels are for them to enter the market and for a change have belief in their suppliers to judge the market and make their buying decision. More and more interaction with your suppliers will only help getting the right price and right quantity at the right time.Few decisions may go wrong but if you look at the long term picture it will only be benifitial.

If you remember what we said in our July report

QUOTE" in case our above findings are true we suggest that you hold on tight to your respective suppliers as this could be a bumpy year ahead .After years of sorting out of bad suppliers it could be year of sorting out of buyers this year round.You may get the price from time to time but not the desired quantity."UNQUOTE

Korean Tender 5000 Mt Oct/Market Report

The Korean tender of 5000 Mt for the Month of October was as expected awarded to India in the price range of USD 1107 - USD 1121.

There was negligible participation from the African Nations as their old stocks are as good as finished , however the big surprise was the

absence of a strong participation we usually see during this particular time from Pakistan.As we had mentioned in our previous report we

had heard about a weak crop in Pakistan , being in almost the same geographical location and having similar harvest cycle as Gujarat we

believed that there would have been similar damages to their crop as well , which seems evident from their lack of interest in Korean Tenders.

The new crop arrivals began earlier in October and picked up in quantum around mid of the month. With the last 2 weeks and the coming week

being Holy months in India, which are specially more avidly followed in U.P/M.P region we believed that the arrivals would pick up sooner or later.

However the patience of buyers and forward sellers ran out a little too early and the market has already seen a rise of about 12% from the lowest levels

where it started from.Buying pressure from day one also did not allow the markets to settle down at lower levels and it more or less picked up from the

last year end prices , whereas usually we have experienced a discount of about 8-10% on old crops closing prices in the past.

China factor despite mixed feeling is very much evident , it is now confirmed news that they do have a bad crop , many of us ofcourse will argue on

the size of reduction. The fact remains that they are consuming more and more every year ,that is the reason from a Exporting nation they have now

almost become a net Importing one, barring their trade with Japan and Korea. At conservative levels their crop damage of 30% amounts to about 200,000 Mt

which will definitely put pressure on global prices. Like we mentioned earlier it doesn't matter where they buy from , be it India , Myanmar or Africa that

quantity WILL TRAVEL East.They have supposedly bought quite a lot of cargo from India at low levels earlier in the season mainly due to the fact that

Africa will not be in the market till Dec End/Early. It's a global market now and news travels fast so if the Indian prices are on a high in Dec we see

no reason why our friends in Africa will panic and sell their merchandise at huge discounts as they would have good 10 more months to hold before any

other new crop arrives and a benchmark price from India to base on .Also this year keeping in mind that they finished their last crop in barely 8 months.

Mixed news about their crop ,but general feeling we've heard is of a good crop similar in size to last year.

We still believe that markets went up too much too quickly, however the arrivals surprisingly are not picking up and their is more of covering pressure

at the moment from the people who sold rather than of business being done at higher levels.Everyone again is waiting for prices to fall and that we have

seen in the past never works out well. As per our feeling market should provide a low level window to buy at low level , which we now think maynot be lower

than the levels the season started on. Moreover in the next 2 weeks the domestic demand picks up which always keeps the prices at check as in past.

We think in short term there is good buying opportunity till Mid Nov and for long term around Mid Jan after the African crop arrives but that ofcourse is subject

to how their crop is.

We have alredy seen Intraday jumps of 30-35$'s in the last week and we think this will be case all year , quantum drops and quantum jumps.

Finally in the last few days there has been Rumors that the Govt of India is likely to impose a Ban on Sesame Seeds, today we have that in Newspapers as well.

When and If that will happen remains a mystery.Technically this news should have taken the prices downwards but infact what seems to be happeing is that the spot buying has picked up in a frenzy as everyone is in a rush to get their cargo moved out in case of eventuality.If the ban happens what will happen?Markets in India will ofcourse crash , the seeds will go into crusing for oil but what good will than do to the buyers when we can't export , with India out ,China short and African crop still 2 months away we wonder what the situation will be like.

Korean Tender September 20th /Market Report September

The new crop Korean Tender was announced on the 20th and as expected the whole quantity of 4500 MT was awarded to India once again. The price range was in the $1025 - $1055 spectrum which is higher than most people actually anticipated.

The were very few African and Pakistani bids which can be due to the fact that African stocks are almost over and they are not expecting new crop before Jan-Feb 2008 and a similar situation for Pakistan as well , also the Pakistan crop is expected to be smaller than last year

mainly due to the fact that it is almost grown in the same climatic region as Gujarat which faced erratic climate this sowing season.

In all our previous reports we have repeated that the crop is delayed which is again holding true. Its almost end of September and the arrivals in Gujarat and Maharastra are barely exceeding a few hundred bags daily. In U.P and M.P the arrivals were barely 4-5 bags which commenced only last week,the seeds arrived are those that small farmers harvest early to clean up their farms and is of crushing grade with high moisture content.

Gujarat and Maharastra will have crops smaller than last year. Sowing area as well as yields per Hectare in these states have reduced substantially.

U.P , M.P and Rajasthan are heading for good crops .The sowing area has no doubt gone up.The areas under cultivation on an average has gone up by 30-40% as compared to last year , but the yield has dropped as some areas had excess rains at plantation stages which destroyed the sowing and also rain deficiency in certain areas at a later stage has affected the crop yield and quality. The quantity should be higher than last year by about 15-20%.This should cover up the losses made in other states and the overall quantity should be same or maybe just a little higher than last year , the last

crop barely lasted us 11 months as the current stocks are almost zero so the next should be just about enough as well keeping a tight demand-supply ratio all year.

The major factors to watch out this year should be the forward trade and the fact that most buyers are not holding big stocks and will need new crop merchandise at all costs as soon as possible. The fear as we have seen in the past is everyone suddenly stepping in to cover at the same time, this should keep the prices high. A lot of forward and speculative trade has happened in the last few weeks and the pipe lines in India are empty as well so we expect a mad rush for buying at the start of new crop. New crop in full swing is not expected before End Oct/Early November around and after the Indian festival of Diwali.

The freights as we all know have gone up almost 2.5 % as compared to last year levels and the US$ has gone down against the Indian Rupee by almost 14% now. Above that there is the rising costs of local transportation and High Interest rates.All these factors put together should keep the average levels high this season. However we feel that there will be windows to cover at attractive levels , everyone needs to stay in close contact with their suppliers as we don't expect that the low levels opportunities will be of longer durations.The price variations as in the past should be quantum and sudden in nature rather than a gradual so the important factor should be not getting the lowest price but maintaining a lowest average.

China crop is now confirmed to be around 40-45% short , which mean that irrespective of when they buy , "THEY WILL BUY". If not from India then from Africa , in either case they will push up the prices whenever they start buying and from what we know there is already a lot of trade inquires in the market for the new crop.

Korean Tender July 23rd.

The Korean tender for 6000 Mt was awarded today and as expected India managed to bag 5000 Mt at a price range of USD 1137-1143 , Pakistan was awarded the other 1000 Mt. Interestingly in contrast to expectations the African prices were seen ruling higher by 40-50$/MT . We believe the reason for the same is a confirmed Chinese crop failure, the total damage due to floods and crop shifting is expected to be in the range of 30-35% and going by previous trends African suppliers know they can always manage to fetch a better price in the Chinese market when their New Year demand starts and are not is a rush to sell at cheap levels as their new crop doesn't arrive until Feb/March 2008.

Indian crop is also not shaping out too well , Gujarat and Maharashtra will be lucky to have 50 % of what they had last year and the northern states of U.P,M.P and Rajasthan even with a big crop may at best substitute the gap , but even that depends on the rains which have dried up for the last 10-12 days and if it doesn't pick up again we may see some damage to the crop in U.P and M.P as well , atleast in terms of yield leading to lower volumes.The delay is inevitable now and we don't see new crop arriving in full swing before 2nd half October now.